Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?

By: Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com), April 19, 2017 1:20 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now. Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?

I can try to infer a few. The hardware industry will switch to a model yielding 20%+ improvements per year on various metrics to model yielding a mere 2% per year (ballpark figures, of course). This will impact the software ecosystem heavily. Software growth and evolution for 40 years has been enabled by the "free lunch" brought by hardware advances. When the free lunch is over, the software industry will also transition to a different model with a much more modest rate of evolution. This is the switch from a fast-evolving industry to a more mature industry.

The start-up frenzy (disruption yadda yadda) will probably fade away (perhaps this will lead to a minor stock market crash). Established players will be able to consolidate their positions and protect against of entrance of new smaller competitors. Vertically-integrated players (e.g. Apple) may have a key advantage in that game. The HW and SW industry will start looking more and more like old mature industries (think how aerospace construction or public construction look like).

Developed countries, whose current small economic growth is driven partly by advances in computing and digital services, will face more difficulties. Stagnation may become a long-lasting economic paradigm. This will also have (probably negative) implications on the labour market for us engineers. Efficiency improvements and competitive advantages that cannot be brought by technological advances anymore will be obtained by HR "optimization" and other agressive management strategies (such as increased pressure on the margins of contractors, etc.), while the labour supply/demand balance will shift to a less favorable equilibrium for us.

Your thoughts?
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