Moore's law left other levers partially tapped

By: Mr. Camel (a.delete@this.b.c), April 19, 2017 9:34 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com) on April 19, 2017 6:31 am wrote:
> Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on April 19, 2017 1:20 am wrote:
> > The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now.
> > Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?
> >
> > I can try to infer a few. The hardware industry will switch to a model yielding 20%+ improvements
> > per year on various metrics to model yielding a mere 2% per year (ballpark figures, of course).
>
> I think this is too pessimistic.
>
> Even if you froze process development/improvement totally the industry could probably
> coast with >2% average annual improvement from design optimisation, circuit improvements,
> better understanding product usage, manufacturability headroom etc for at least a decade.
> When you are on a product development treadmill tied to process shrinks an awful lot of
> potential is left on the cutting room floor so to speak to meet schedule.
>
> In practice, in such a world product improvements would be lumpier than 2% and much less
> frequent than annual because no one will burn mask set and silicon verification costs
> every year for just 2%.
>
> Of course processes will continue to improve, just not as fast and in the same ways as
> in the past. Less frequent process changes means longer time for designers to fully use
> the potential of each process. I think we clearly see that with Intel's 14 nm.

It also lets Intel (and others) capitalize on the process from a financial perspective for a longer time.

The cost of developing the process as well the actual fab build-out is getting much more expensive. Allowing more time to amortize this huge capital investment is keeping Intel's bean counters happy.
< Previous Post in ThreadNext Post in Thread >
TopicPosted ByDate
Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Foo_04/19/17 01:20 AM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?RichardC04/19/17 05:56 AM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 11:16 AM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?RichardC04/19/17 12:08 PM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 12:56 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Michael S04/19/17 01:26 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:20 AM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 02:12 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/19/17 06:31 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 08:41 PM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 09:15 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 09:55 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 05:02 PM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 05:58 PM
                      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 06:59 AM
                        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:32 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Doug S04/20/17 11:37 PM
                      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/21/17 09:41 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:40 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:46 AM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:36 AM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:43 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 09:35 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/21/17 09:44 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 10:23 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 12:03 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ungo04/19/17 09:34 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/20/17 05:50 AM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:25 AM
            Swiss army knife problem Ireland04/21/17 07:39 AM
              Swiss army knife problem David Hess04/21/17 01:49 PM
                Swiss army knife problem Ireland04/21/17 02:30 PM
        And 40nm, 0.18um and 0.35umRob Thorpe04/19/17 03:59 PM
        costsRichardC04/20/17 04:21 AM
  Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/19/17 06:31 AM
    Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMr. Camel04/19/17 09:34 AM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDavid Hess04/19/17 11:19 AM
        Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/19/17 12:29 PM
          Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMichael S04/19/17 01:34 PM
    Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMitch Hayenga04/20/17 09:03 PM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/20/17 09:53 PM
        Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMitch Hayenga04/20/17 10:13 PM
          Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/21/17 05:31 AM
            Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDavid Hess04/21/17 07:50 AM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDoug S04/20/17 11:45 PM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?John H04/19/17 10:00 AM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 02:20 PM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Maynard Handley04/19/17 03:09 PM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 03:32 PM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Doug S04/19/17 12:36 PM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?VertexMaster04/19/17 08:13 PM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 08:03 AM
  More FPGAs (NT)slacker04/20/17 10:02 PM
  Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 06:05 AM
    Impact of new memory technologiesDoug S04/22/17 09:32 AM
      Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 12:01 PM
        Impact of new memory technologiesMichael S04/22/17 12:11 PM
          Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 12:22 PM
            Impact of new memory technologiesMichael S04/22/17 01:37 PM
    Impact of new memory technologiesMegol04/22/17 09:56 AM
Reply to this Topic
Name:
Email:
Topic:
Body: No Text
How do you spell green?