Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?

By: John H (john.heritage.delete@this.gmail.com), April 19, 2017 10:00 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on April 19, 2017 1:20 am wrote:
> The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now.
> Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?
>
> Your thoughts?

I think we're already seeing the industry move into the 'very mature' phase because we're already seeing consequences of Moore's Law breaking down and changing.

The risk (-) /reward (+) ratio has changed a lot in the last 10 years:
+ Bigger (global) market for electronics products
+ Mature processes and understanding of chip fabrication and design
+ Tools are always better
- Barrier to entry generally getting higher (chip costs up, FPGA/IoT down for given performance)
- Reduced competition on fab process (consolidation of fabs, less need for numerous fabs in future)
- Less available 'obvious' future gains in performance slows down roadmaps and replacement sales

The lazy answer is probably saying the innovation needed to succeed in a post- Moore's Law society is 'changing' but not necessarily better or worse.

The more full answer is you will see definite winners and losers in this transition -- big traditional companies stand the largest amount of scrutiny - they have the money to succeed, but do they have the culture to? Companies that depend on performance-induced obsolescence will need to completely re-invent themselves to stay alive.

There is still probably a higher chance of disruption in a post-Moore's Law electronics world than there is in a post-Wright brothers aerospace world :).

TL;DR - IMO Any book covering product lifecycles in detail with examples would probably apply to the overall industry as it relates to Moore's Law.
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Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Foo_04/19/17 01:20 AM
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