Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?

By: Michael S (already5chosen.delete@this.yahoo.com), April 19, 2017 1:26 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
David Hess (davidwhess.delete@this.gmail.com) on April 19, 2017 12:56 pm wrote:
> RichardC (tich.delete@this.pobox.com) on April 19, 2017 12:08 pm wrote:
> > David Hess (davidwhess.delete@this.gmail.com) on April 19, 2017 11:16 am wrote:
> >
> > But I think it's a mistake to focus only on Intel, who have missed out badly on the phone/tablet
> > boom, and instead have found themselves chasing improvements in server TCO (by putting more and
> > more cores per cpu, with less and less power per core) and laptop battery life. ISTM the more
> > representative markets are for stuff like mid-range quad-core ARM phone chips, which aren't
> > pushing the envelope on density, and a whole lot of embedded SoCs in set-top boxes and
> > WiFi routers, which also aren't close to the edge in terms of density, but don't want to run
> > too hot in quiet/small boxes.
>
> Not pushing the envelope on density? They are being manufactured on the most economical process available
> for the cost advantage which is usually the densest. But lower volume products will not support that.
>
> > And my impression is that a whole lot of products stayed on 28-32nm processes for a long long
> > time, because they didn't *need* the extra density, and the cost per transistor on the newer
> > processors stayed high for quite a while (though I guess eventually they must have matured
> > and got cheaper). In other words, the move to smaller feature sizes isn't an economic slam-dunk
> > the way it used to be. Is that right ?
>
> I think ARM suffers from having so many different producers that only the largest volume
> products are economical for the newest processes. Even with high costs, those processes
> have a lower cost per transistor because of their density advantage.

Do you say that because you know or it's just your guess?

Take a look, for example, at SOCs introduced this year by Mediatek - one of the biggest vendors of cheap phone SOCs.
MT6757CD - 16nm
MT6797D - 20nm
MT6797X - 20nm
MT6799 - 10nm
plus MT6755T (28nm) introduced just a little earlier in Q3 2016

Make what you want out of it.
My personal conclusion (until proven otherwise) would be that the price per transistor at TSMC 28/20/16/10 nm does not vary by much, if at all.
I'd guess that the same was true for Intel 22/14 nm up until ~18 months ago.

> Smaller players
> will have to just put up with higher costs and the resulting lower profits.
>
> At some point you are right and a denser fabrication processes will
> be so expensive that the cost per transistor will not decrease.
>

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TopicPosted ByDate
Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Foo_04/19/17 01:20 AM
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    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 11:16 AM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?RichardC04/19/17 12:08 PM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 12:56 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Michael S04/19/17 01:26 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:20 AM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 02:12 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/19/17 06:31 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 08:41 PM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 09:15 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 09:55 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 05:02 PM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 05:58 PM
                      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 06:59 AM
                        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:32 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Doug S04/20/17 11:37 PM
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                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:40 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:46 AM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:36 AM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:43 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 09:35 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/21/17 09:44 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 10:23 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 12:03 PM
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