Moore's law left other levers partially tapped

By: someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com), April 20, 2017 9:53 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Mitch Hayenga (no.delete@this.thanks.com) on April 20, 2017 9:03 pm wrote:
> someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com) on April 19, 2017 6:31 am wrote:
> > Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on April 19, 2017 1:20 am wrote:
> > > The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now.
> > > Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?
> > >
> > > I can try to infer a few. The hardware industry will switch to a model yielding 20%+ improvements
> > > per year on various metrics to model yielding a mere 2% per year (ballpark figures, of course).
> >
> > I think this is too pessimistic.
> >
> > Even if you froze process development/improvement totally the industry could probably
> > coast with >2% average annual improvement from design optimisation, circuit improvements,
> > better understanding product usage, manufacturability headroom etc for at least a decade.
> > When you are on a product development treadmill tied to process shrinks an awful lot of
> > potential is left on the cutting room floor so to speak to meet schedule.
> >
> > In practice, in such a world product improvements would be lumpier than 2% and much less
> > frequent than annual because no one will burn mask set and silicon verification costs
> > every year for just 2%.
> >
> > Of course processes will continue to improve, just not as fast and in the same ways as
> > in the past. Less frequent process changes means longer time for designers to fully use
> > the potential of each process. I think we clearly see that with Intel's 14 nm.
>
>
> Eh, performance gains have been pretty paltry even with some scaling. Recently I made this
> graph mining data from spec.org. I took the highest SPECINT score (not rate) for each calendar
> year since the Pentium Pro. Converted between SPEC 95/2000/2006 by using a conversion ratio
> (assumed highest SPEC2000 score in 2006 == highest SPEC2k6 score in 2006).
>
> SPECINT Performance Scaling
>
> Even with scaling, we've only been getting 5%/yr on SPECINT for the last 7 years. The previous 35%/yr
> fits nicely with the old rule of thumb that performance doubled every 2 years (rule of 72).

Why don't you plot MPU socket power growth alongside SPECINT growth.

I suspect the break point of slope in the latter corresponds well with the
inflection of the former. :-)

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TopicPosted ByDate
Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Foo_04/19/17 01:20 AM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?RichardC04/19/17 05:56 AM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 11:16 AM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?RichardC04/19/17 12:08 PM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/19/17 12:56 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Michael S04/19/17 01:26 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:20 AM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 02:12 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/19/17 06:31 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 08:41 PM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 09:15 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 09:55 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/20/17 05:02 PM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/20/17 05:58 PM
                      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 06:59 AM
                        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:32 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Doug S04/20/17 11:37 PM
                      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/21/17 09:41 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:40 AM
                    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:46 AM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:36 AM
              Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 07:43 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ricardo B04/21/17 09:35 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/21/17 09:44 AM
                Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 10:23 AM
                  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/21/17 12:03 PM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ungo04/19/17 09:34 PM
            Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?anonymou504/20/17 05:50 AM
          Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 07:25 AM
            Swiss army knife problem Ireland04/21/17 07:39 AM
              Swiss army knife problem David Hess04/21/17 01:49 PM
                Swiss army knife problem Ireland04/21/17 02:30 PM
                  Swiss army knife problem David Hess04/23/17 05:21 AM
        And 40nm, 0.18um and 0.35umRob Thorpe04/19/17 03:59 PM
        costsRichardC04/20/17 04:21 AM
  Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/19/17 06:31 AM
    Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMr. Camel04/19/17 09:34 AM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDavid Hess04/19/17 11:19 AM
        Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/19/17 12:29 PM
          Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMichael S04/19/17 01:34 PM
    Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMitch Hayenga04/20/17 09:03 PM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/20/17 09:53 PM
        Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMitch Hayenga04/20/17 10:13 PM
          Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone04/21/17 05:31 AM
            Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDavid Hess04/21/17 07:50 AM
      Moore's law left other levers partially tappedDoug S04/20/17 11:45 PM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?John H04/19/17 10:00 AM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 02:20 PM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Maynard Handley04/19/17 03:09 PM
        Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Ireland04/19/17 03:32 PM
  Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Doug S04/19/17 12:36 PM
    Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?VertexMaster04/19/17 08:13 PM
      Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?David Hess04/21/17 08:03 AM
  More FPGAs (NT)slacker04/20/17 10:02 PM
  Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 06:05 AM
    Impact of new memory technologiesDoug S04/22/17 09:32 AM
      Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 12:01 PM
        Impact of new memory technologiesMichael S04/22/17 12:11 PM
          Impact of new memory technologiesEmil Briggs04/22/17 12:22 PM
            Impact of new memory technologiesMichael S04/22/17 01:37 PM
        Impact of new memory technologiesDavid Hess04/23/17 05:25 AM
    Impact of new memory technologiesMegol04/22/17 09:56 AM
    Impact of new memory technologiesDavid Hess04/23/17 05:30 AM
      Impact of new memory technologiesMichael S04/23/17 06:12 AM
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