Moore's law left other levers partially tapped

By: Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar), April 20, 2017 11:45 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Mitch Hayenga (no.delete@this.thanks.com) on April 20, 2017 9:03 pm wrote:

> Eh, performance gains have been pretty paltry even with some scaling. Recently I made this
> graph mining data from spec.org. I took the highest SPECINT score (not rate) for each calendar
> year since the Pentium Pro. Converted between SPEC 95/2000/2006 by using a conversion ratio
> (assumed highest SPEC2000 score in 2006 == highest SPEC2k6 score in 2006).
>
> SPECINT Performance Scaling
>
> Even with scaling, we've only been getting 5%/yr on SPECINT for the last 7 years. The previous 35%/yr
> fits nicely with the old rule of thumb that performance doubled every 2 years (rule of 72).


No doubt someone will object that you should be looking at SPECintrate, but outside of server type tasks, and obviously parallel tasks like compression, encryption, etc., programmers haven't fared that well at making effective use of more than two or three cores (and not always that many)

The impact of Moore's Law coming to a conclusion will be felt much more in the cloud than on the desktop. By the time it hits, mobile will have already reached the point of diminishing returns it is fast approaching so it won't make any more difference there than on the desktop.
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