The Battle in 64 bit Land, 2003 and Beyond

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Looking Forward – The 64 bit Landscape A Year From Now

Over the next twelve months, powerful new 0.13 mm 64 bit MPUs will ship, or approach shipping. These include Intel’s Madison, AMD’s Opteron, IBM’s PowerPC 970, HP’s Alpha EV79 and PA-8800, and Sun’s US-IV. In addition existing processors designs like POWER4+ will likely see incremental clock frequency and performance increases. The characteristics and performance of these processors are provided below in Table 3. Performance figures and undisclosed processor characteristics are based on estimates and/or extrapolations from public data. The performance projections for IA64 assume no boost from improvements in EPIC compiler technology over the next 12 months. The performance projection for Opteron assumes native x86-64 compiler technology will not outperform current IA32 compiler technology over the next 12 months. The die area estimate for US-IV assumes it is a single CPU device.

<b>Table 3 Predicted 64 bit Computing Landscape, Early 2004</b>
&nbsp;

Alpha

EV79

IA64

Madison

IA64

Deerfield

MIPS

R18K

PA-RISC

PA-8800

Clock (MHz)

1600

1600

1500

800

1000

Max Power (W)

120

130

100

50

90

Die Size (mm2)

300

374

266

130

366

Transistors (m)

200

410

230

80

300

L1 cache (KB)

64 / 64

16 / 16

16 / 16

32 / 32

768/768

L2 cache (MB)

3.0

0.25

0.25

1.0

32

L3 cache (MB)

6.0

3.0

16

SPECint_base2k

1100

1250

1150

600

850

SPECfp_base2k

1600

2150

2000

750

900

&nbsp;

PowerPC

970

PowerPC

POWER4+

SPARC

US-IIIi

SPARC

US-IV

x86-64

Opteron

Clock (MHz)

1800

1800

1200

1500

2400

Max Power (W)

60

120

60

90

80

Die Size (mm2)

118

267

179

240*

160

Transistors (m)

52

184

88

160

100

L1 cache (KB)

64 / 32

64 / 32

32 / 64

32 / 64

64 / 64

L2 cache (MB)

0.5

1.5

1.0

2.0

1.0

L3 cache (MB)

128

16

SPECint_base2k

900

1100

650

800

1400

SPECfp_base2k

1000

1500

800

1000

1350

The performance projections in Table 3 suggest the current division of competing 64 bit MPUs into distinct performance “have” and “have not” camps will continue. The top integer performers as measured by SPECint2k will likely be Opteron and Madison. The top floating point performers as measured by SPECfp2k will likely be Madison and EV79.


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