NVidia in a hole

Article: Parallelism at HotPar 2010
By: Richard Cownie (tich.delete@this.pobox.com), August 4, 2010 8:23 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
hobold (hobold@vectorizer.org) on 8/4/10 wrote:
---------------------------

>I am not yet ready to count Nvidia out. They can be positively crazy with new and
>innovative designs (GPGPU wouldn't be such a hot topic now if it weren't for them).
>Their lack of integration means that they will be the only game in town when it
>comes to upgrading rather than replacing boxes. Fermi the product may suck, but Fermi the idea is still valid.
>
>I have no idea if a business can be sustained on that, but short term I don't see them die all of a sudden.

Well, I think nVidia has done us a service in pioneering
the GPGPU stuff, if only because it has forced Intel and
AMD to respond by improving their CPU's behavior for
throughput-intensive and parallel-FPU intensive apps.

But being a pioneer doesn't always lead to a sustainable
business. Right now NVidia just announced an
unexpected $150M drop in revenue for the quarter - that's
20% of their business that vanished overnight. And by
mid-2011 we'll have adequate CPU+GPU chips from both
Intel and AMD which will simply obliterate NVidia's
revenue from sub-$100 discrete GPUs. And in the $100-$200
range NVidia still has nothing at all that matches
the Evergreen series on features (DX11, Eyefinity) or
price-performance. A situation that's probably only
going to get worse with AMD's Southern Islands arriving
in Q4 2010 and Q1 2011.

That's a really ugly business prospect over the next
12 months or so.

On the technical side, they've had a couple of years of
unreliable and too-hot chips (leading to the loss of
major OEMs such as Apple). And they don't appear to have
any option in the near future to achieve tighter integration
with a capable scalar cpu, which is what both AMD and Intel
are doing.

And while AMD is doing the integrated CPU+GPU stuff,
that certainly doesn't mean they're going to give up on
the mid/high-end discrete GPUs. On the contrary,
they're making a ton of money on that and will surely
milk it for all it's worth.

Undoubtedly NVidia has some good people, but I just don't
see what rabbit they can pull out of the hat within the
next 2 years. What would make sense would be for Intel
to buy NVidia and take their good GPU technology and
throw away Intel's own dysfunctional GMA. And shrinking
Fermi from TSMC's broken 40nm process onto Intel's
solid 32nm process would probably give you
something pretty good. But that merger would be a big
antitrust issue, which Intel probably wouldn't want to
take on when they just got out of hot water with the FTC.
< Previous Post in ThreadNext Post in Thread >
TopicPosted ByDate
Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineDavid Kanter2010/07/27 08:29 AM
  Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineAnon2010/07/27 02:57 PM
    Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineDavid Kanter2010/07/27 11:48 PM
      Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineAnon2010/07/28 03:44 PM
        Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineanon2010/07/28 05:10 PM
        CPU+GPUDavid Kanter2010/07/29 12:38 PM
          CPU+GPUMark Christiansen2010/07/30 07:36 AM
            CPU+GPUhobold2010/07/30 07:54 AM
              CPU+GPUGabriele Svelto2010/07/30 08:18 AM
                CPU+GPUhobold2010/07/30 03:46 PM
              CPU+GPUAaron Spink2010/08/02 06:32 PM
                CPU+GPUhobold2010/08/03 04:33 AM
                  CPU+GPURicardo B2010/08/03 05:19 AM
            CPU+GPU - the software problemVincent Diepeveen2010/07/31 05:50 PM
              CPU+GPU - the software problemmpx2010/08/02 12:19 PM
                CPU+GPU - the software problemRichard Cownie2010/08/02 01:48 PM
                  CPU+GPU - the software problemGabriele Svelto2010/08/03 12:10 AM
                    CPU+GPU - the software problemhobold2010/08/03 04:41 AM
                      CPU+GPU - the software problemRichard Cownie2010/08/03 06:17 AM
                        CPU+GPU - the software problemhobold2010/08/04 07:45 AM
                          NVidia in a holeRichard Cownie2010/08/04 08:23 AM
                            NVidia in a holeRohit2010/08/04 08:33 AM
                              NVidia in a holeRichard Cownie2010/08/04 08:50 AM
                                NVidia in a holeRohit2010/08/05 07:31 AM
                                  NVidia in a holeGroo2010/08/05 02:08 PM
                                NVidia in a holeGroo2010/08/05 02:07 PM
                              NVidia in a holeMark Roulo2010/08/04 09:26 AM
                                NVidia in a holeLaughabee2010/08/18 08:28 AM
                            Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Mark Roulo2010/08/04 09:29 AM
                              Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Richard Cownie2010/08/04 09:42 AM
                                Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Mark Roulo2010/08/04 09:55 AM
                                  Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Linus Torvalds2010/08/04 11:35 AM
                                    "profit" is subjectiveRichard Cownie2010/08/04 11:49 AM
                                      "profit" is subjectivea reader2010/08/06 04:54 AM
                                        no price warRichard Cownie2010/08/06 07:18 AM
                                  Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Aaron Spink2010/08/04 12:19 PM
                                  Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Konrad Schwarz2010/08/06 08:13 AM
                                CPU lineup != GPU lineupRohit2010/08/05 07:43 AM
                                  CPU lineup != GPU lineupRichard Cownie2010/08/05 08:12 AM
                                    CPU lineup != GPU lineupRohit2010/08/05 08:37 AM
                                      CPU lineup != GPU lineupRichard Cownie2010/08/05 08:56 AM
                                        CPU lineup != GPU lineupRohit2010/08/05 11:19 AM
                                          CPU lineup != GPU lineuphobold2010/08/06 04:08 AM
                                            CPU lineup != GPU lineupRohit2010/08/06 07:24 AM
                                              CPU lineup != GPU lineuphobold2010/08/06 07:41 AM
                              Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?David Hess2010/08/04 11:31 AM
                              Can nVidia survive without a sub-$100 GPU market?Ricardo B2010/08/04 01:16 PM
                              Semiconductor economicsDavid Kanter2010/08/05 09:13 AM
                                Semiconductor economicsRichard Cownie2010/08/05 09:51 AM
                                  NV buying ViA could shake up thingsRohit2010/08/05 11:09 AM
                                    NV buying ViA could shake up thingsRichard Cownie2010/08/05 11:25 AM
                                      Not likelyDavid Kanter2010/08/05 02:39 PM
                                        Not likelyrandom2010/08/05 02:49 PM
                                          Not likelyAaron Spink2010/08/05 03:18 PM
                                        Not likelyGroo2010/08/05 10:05 PM
                                        Not likelyRohit2010/08/06 07:25 AM
                                    NV buying ViA could shake up thingsGroo2010/08/05 10:02 PM
                                    NV buying ViA could shake up thingsehud2010/08/06 01:53 AM
                                      NV buying ViA could shake up thingsRohit2010/08/06 07:30 AM
                                        NV buying ViA could shake up thingsKevin G2010/08/06 05:54 PM
                                          ViA buying NV could shake up thingsBrendan2010/08/19 06:23 AM
                                        NV buying ViA could shake up thingsGroo2010/08/06 08:24 PM
                            NVidia in a holempx2010/08/04 12:01 PM
                              NVidia in a holeRichard Cownie2010/08/04 12:31 PM
                                NVidia in a holercf2010/08/04 03:40 PM
                              NVidia in a holeRohit2010/08/05 07:51 AM
                              NVidia in a holeGroo2010/08/05 09:50 PM
                              NVidia in a holeAaron Spink2010/08/05 11:52 PM
                          Anyone else wish Intel would buy Nvidia ? (NT)Silent2010/08/07 01:30 AM
                            Hell noa2010/08/07 08:37 PM
                        CPU+GPU - the software problemno thanks2010/08/04 07:54 PM
                          CPU+GPU - the software problemJouni Osmala2010/08/05 01:41 AM
                            CPU+GPU - the software problemIntelUser20002010/08/05 07:54 PM
                              CPU+GPU - the software problemJouni Osmala2010/08/05 09:36 PM
                            CPU+GPU - the software problemLinus Torvalds2010/08/06 08:08 AM
                              CPU+GPU - the software problemanonymous2010/08/06 09:39 AM
                                CPU+GPU - the software problemLinus Torvalds2010/08/06 10:56 AM
                                  non-existent Via+NV vs real OntarioRichard Cownie2010/08/06 12:12 PM
                              CPU+GPU - the software problemkoby m.2010/08/07 02:06 AM
                  CPU+GPU - the software problemhobold2010/08/03 04:48 AM
                CPU+GPU - the software problemhobold2010/08/03 04:45 AM
                  CPU+GPU - the software problemRichard Cownie2010/08/03 06:22 AM
          CPU+GPUAnon2010/07/30 09:11 PM
            CPU+GPUanon2010/07/31 03:19 AM
            CPU+GPUAaron Spink2010/08/02 06:45 PM
          100x speedups -- here we go againAM2010/08/02 01:37 AM
            100x speedups -- here we go againanon2010/08/02 03:32 AM
              100x speedups -- here we go againanon2010/08/02 11:14 PM
            GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUMark Roulo2010/08/02 09:41 AM
              GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUMichael S2010/08/02 03:31 PM
                GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUanon2010/08/02 09:36 PM
                  GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUMichael S2010/08/03 12:41 AM
                    GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUMark Roulo2010/08/03 08:22 AM
                      GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPURohit2010/08/04 07:08 AM
                      There is reasonable explanation...Jouni Osmala2010/08/04 10:10 PM
                  GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUMark Roulo2010/08/03 08:19 AM
              simple reality check for youAM2010/08/03 01:45 AM
                simple reality check for younone2010/08/03 07:27 AM
                  simple reality check for youAM2010/08/03 11:50 PM
                    simple reality check for youanon2010/08/04 12:06 AM
                      simple reality check for youAM2010/08/05 03:51 AM
                        catch the same boat as everyone else next time (NT)anon2010/08/05 04:44 AM
                Simple reality checkDavid Kanter2010/08/03 08:24 AM
                  Simple reality checkGabriele Svelto2010/08/03 10:51 PM
                  Simple reality checkAM2010/08/03 11:57 PM
                    Simple reality checkanon2010/08/04 12:12 AM
                      Simple reality checkAM2010/08/05 03:59 AM
                        Simple reality checkanon2010/08/05 04:47 AM
                          Study the papers, troll (NT)AM2010/08/06 12:01 AM
                    Simple reality checkhobold2010/08/04 05:05 AM
                    Simple reality checkDean Kent2010/08/04 09:30 AM
                      Simple reality checkMark Roulo2010/08/04 09:59 AM
                      Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark RouloAM2010/08/05 03:57 AM
                        Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark Roulonone2010/08/05 04:22 AM
                          Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark RouloAM2010/08/06 12:04 AM
                        Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark Roulonone2010/08/05 04:38 AM
                          Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark Rouloanon2010/08/05 04:43 AM
                            Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark RouloAM2010/08/06 12:11 AM
                              Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark Rouloanon2010/08/06 07:52 AM
                          Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark RouloAM2010/08/06 12:10 AM
                            Suggestion for David Kanter and Mark Roulonone2010/08/06 01:35 AM
                              price doesn't matter only in theories (NT)AM2010/08/09 02:13 AM
                            Not apple4appleMichael S2010/08/06 05:13 AM
                              Not apple4appleAM2010/08/09 02:09 AM
                                Not apple4appleMichael S2010/08/09 04:35 AM
                                  Not apple4appleAM2010/08/10 01:05 AM
                                    Not apple4applenone2010/08/10 01:38 AM
                                      Back to topicAM2010/08/11 12:03 AM
                                      Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/13 04:28 AM
                                        Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)none2010/08/13 09:10 AM
                                          Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/16 01:14 AM
                                            Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)none2010/08/16 06:29 AM
                                              One example of 1000X shown to be wrong.sea2010/08/16 07:55 PM
                                                You're short of some factsAM2010/08/17 01:13 AM
                                                  Maybe you need to read beyond the PR statementSteve Underwood2010/08/17 02:39 AM
                                                    Maybe you need to read beyond the PR statementGroo2010/08/17 08:18 PM
                                                    check the hw they usedAM2010/08/18 03:33 AM
                                                Please realize what Monte Carlo meansVincent Diepeveen2010/08/18 03:28 AM
                                              Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/17 01:18 AM
                                        Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)anon2010/08/14 01:22 AM
                                          Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/16 01:15 AM
                                            Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)anon2010/08/16 02:10 PM
                                              Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/17 01:15 AM
                                                Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)Michael S2010/08/17 02:58 AM
                                                  Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/18 03:17 AM
                                                    Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)gallier22010/08/18 04:52 AM
                                                    Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)Michael S2010/08/18 05:33 AM
                                                      Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)Gabriele Svelto2010/08/18 06:11 AM
                                                      Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)Steve Underwood2010/08/18 04:03 PM
                                                        Intel might be moving from ISA to platformhobold2010/08/19 03:58 AM
                                                          Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/22 07:00 PM
                                                            Intel might be moving from ISA to platformAnon2010/08/22 10:43 PM
                                                              Intel might be moving from ISA to platformajensen2010/08/23 12:37 AM
                                                                Intel might be moving from ISA to platformMichael S2010/08/23 02:13 AM
                                                                  Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/23 02:35 AM
                                                                  Intel might be moving from ISA to platformhobold2010/08/26 04:37 AM
                                                                Intel might be moving from ISA to platformAnon2010/08/23 03:47 PM
                                                              Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/23 02:25 AM
                                                                Intel might be moving from ISA to platformhobold2010/08/23 03:03 AM
                                                                  Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/23 04:26 AM
                                                                Intel might be moving from ISA to platformAnon2010/08/23 03:55 PM
                                                                Intel might be moving from ISA to platformrwessel2010/08/23 06:41 PM
                                                                  Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/23 07:30 PM
                                                                    Intel might be moving from ISA to platformrwessel2010/08/23 09:50 PM
                                                                      Intel might be moving from ISA to platformSteve Underwood2010/08/23 10:34 PM
                                                                        Intel might be moving from ISA to platformrwessel2010/08/24 01:03 AM
                                                              Intel might be moving from ISA to platformIan Ollmann2010/08/23 09:21 PM
                                                          Intel might be moving from ISA to platformajensen2010/08/22 10:36 PM
                                                            Intel might be moving from ISA to platformIan Ollmann2010/08/23 09:45 PM
                                                      Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)AM2010/08/19 01:29 AM
                                                        Final note (and some remarks on Intel's paper)Richard2010/08/19 04:51 AM
                                                          I stand corrected.Michael S2010/08/19 05:30 AM
                simple reality check for youanonymous2010/08/03 10:25 AM
                  simple reality check for youAM2010/08/03 11:47 PM
                    simple reality check for youanonymous2010/08/04 10:17 AM
                      simple reality check for youanon2010/08/04 08:33 PM
                      SPECint/FPAM2010/08/05 03:49 AM
                  simple reality check for youRohit2010/08/13 08:31 PM
                    simple reality check for youhobold2010/08/16 06:29 AM
              maybe texture caches ?Richard Cownie2010/08/03 09:27 AM
                maybe texture caches ?none2010/08/03 09:59 AM
                  maybe texture caches ?Richard Cownie2010/08/03 10:15 AM
                    maybe texture caches ?Mark Roulo2010/08/03 10:23 AM
                      maybe texture caches ?Richard Cownie2010/08/03 10:33 AM
                        maybe texture caches ?Mark Roulo2010/08/03 10:37 AM
                          the Hess paperRichard Cownie2010/08/03 11:16 AM
                    maybe texture caches ?Aaron Spink2010/08/03 01:23 PM
                      maybe texture caches ?Mark Roulo2010/08/03 04:13 PM
                        maybe texture caches ?Michael S2010/08/04 01:47 AM
                  maybe texture caches ?Michael S2010/08/03 10:23 AM
                maybe texture caches ?Mark Roulo2010/08/03 10:19 AM
                  maybe texture caches ?Richard Cownie2010/08/03 10:42 AM
                Cache to cache comparisonDavid Kanter2010/08/03 12:28 PM
                  Cache to cache comparisonRichard Cownie2010/08/03 12:52 PM
                    Cache to cache comparisonDavid Kanter2010/08/03 01:21 PM
                      Cache to cache comparisonRichard Cownie2010/08/03 03:55 PM
                      Cache to cache comparisonGabriele Svelto2010/08/03 11:23 PM
                        Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/04 04:24 PM
                          Nehalem vs Core2IntelUser20002010/08/04 07:26 PM
                          Nehalem vs Core2Gabriele Svelto2010/08/04 10:51 PM
                            Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/05 03:27 AM
                              Nehalem vs Core2Gabriele Svelto2010/08/05 06:00 AM
                                Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/05 07:10 AM
                                  Nehalem vs Core2Gabriele Svelto2010/08/05 07:41 AM
                                    Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/05 10:02 AM
                              Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/05 10:12 AM
                          Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/05 12:36 AM
                            Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/05 08:33 AM
                              Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/05 09:44 AM
                                Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/05 10:03 AM
                                  Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/05 04:21 PM
                                    Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/05 07:15 PM
                                      I'm wrong, you're right - i's 2 dieRichard Cownie2010/08/05 07:21 PM
                                    Nehalem vs Core2Richard Cownie2010/08/06 08:12 AM
                                      Nehalem vs Core2Michael S2010/08/06 08:33 AM
                                      Nehalem L1 cache latency a hedge for higher clock speeds?Mark Roulo2010/08/06 08:36 AM
                                        Nehalem L1 cache latency a hedge for higher clock speeds?Kevin G2010/08/07 10:14 AM
                                          Nehalem L1 cache latency a hedge for higher clock speeds?IntelUser20002010/08/07 02:32 PM
                                        Nehalem L1 cache latency a hedge for higher clock speeds?someone2010/08/07 02:35 PM
                          difference between C2D/C2Q chipsetsMichael S2010/08/05 12:57 AM
                          Nehalem core goals ... my takeMark Roulo2010/08/06 07:53 AM
                            Bulldozer single-threadRichard Cownie2010/08/06 04:05 PM
                          Nehalem vs Core2Carlie Coats2010/08/07 08:41 AM
                            scalingMichael S2010/08/07 11:12 AM
                            why X5460?Michael S2010/08/07 11:12 AM
                              why X5460?Carlie Coats2010/08/08 04:34 AM
                                why X5460?Michael S2010/08/08 04:42 AM
                                  Polling/PIO based COMM libraries?Michael S2010/08/08 05:14 AM
                    Cache to cache comparisonAnts Aasma2010/08/04 10:00 AM
                      Cache to cache comparisonRichard Cownie2010/08/04 10:08 AM
                        Cache to cache comparisonAnts Aasma2010/08/04 11:28 AM
                      Cache to cache comparisonMichael S2010/08/04 11:33 AM
                        Cache to cache comparisonMark Roulo2010/08/04 12:29 PM
                          Cache to cache comparisonAnts Aasma2010/08/04 01:10 PM
                            Fermi and G200 instruction latencyMark Roulo2010/08/04 02:10 PM
                              Fermi and G200 instruction latencyAnts Aasma2010/08/04 03:01 PM
                        Cache to cache comparisonAnts Aasma2010/08/04 01:00 PM
                        Register read comparisonDavid Kanter2010/08/05 09:16 AM
                          Register read comparisonGabriele Svelto2010/08/05 11:42 PM
                maybe texture caches ?Aaron Spink2010/08/03 01:17 PM
              GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPURichard2010/08/09 04:58 AM
                GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUnone2010/08/09 05:19 AM
                  GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPUVincent Diepeveen2010/08/24 07:18 AM
                    Forget it, they won't hear itanon2010/08/24 04:37 PM
                    GPU raw H/W only has about a 10x advantage over a CPURichard2010/08/25 01:03 PM
                This forum supports pre tagMichael S2010/08/09 06:03 AM
    Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineRich Vuduc2010/07/28 10:24 AM
      Tarek's Hotpar 2010 article onlineAnon2010/07/28 04:18 PM
  Low hanging fruitMoritz2011/02/03 12:20 PM
    Low hanging fruitJukka Larja2011/02/06 05:01 AM
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