By: Richard Cownie (tich.delete@this.pobox.com), February 2, 2013 2:50 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Ricardo B (ricardo.b.delete@this.xxxxxx.xx) on February 2, 2013 2:14 pm wrote:
> OTOH, I think you're seriously underestimating the advantage
> Intel's business model grants them -- when it is applicable.
>
> Compared it's current competitors Intel's advantage is that it tightly
> integrates process, circuit design and micro architecture design.
> When they don't f**k up, they can consistently produce chips which are better
> (faster, lower power) and cheaper to produce than the competition.
I don't think I'm underestimating it. But they can only do that tight
integration of process/circuit/microarchitecture for one thing, which at the
moment is x86. The right process for x86 laptop/desktop is not necessarily
the right process for smartphone/tablet. And even over the last few years,
when they try to push a mediocre design, they don't do so well: Atom-based
low-power systems haven't matched up well against AMD's Bobcat-based products,
and aren't selling well these days. And Itanium ...
anon's argument is a bit circular: when Intel has a high-volume product
on their world-beating fabs, they do great. But of course, the products
that don't reach high volume are the ones with weak design. And Intel has
had plenty of those (several generations of Itanium; original Pentium4; Atom).
Can they design a great smartphone/tablet SoC ? It's not impossible; but
I wouldn't put the odds any higher than 50%, based on the complexity of the
challenge, and their track record. You're welcome to make a different judgment.
> When the smartphone/tablet rose, it met neither of these requirements. What we have
> was companies like Apple design their own SoCs for use in their own devices.
> But now, as we have lots of companies buying large quantities of of-the-shelf SoC chips
> to use in their devices, it begins to meet Intel's business model requirements.
Not really. It seems to me there are two classes of smartphone/tablet product -
the premium high-end high-margin products, mostly from Apple and Samsung; and the
commodity products with so-so specs and razor-thin margins. There isn't an opportunity
for Intel in the high-end products - at least for now - because Apple and Samsung
want that margin for themselves; and while there might be an opportunity in the
other segment, it's unlike to have the kind of margins that Intel wants to get
from its leading-edge fabs.
> OTOH, I think you're seriously underestimating the advantage
> Intel's business model grants them -- when it is applicable.
>
> Compared it's current competitors Intel's advantage is that it tightly
> integrates process, circuit design and micro architecture design.
> When they don't f**k up, they can consistently produce chips which are better
> (faster, lower power) and cheaper to produce than the competition.
I don't think I'm underestimating it. But they can only do that tight
integration of process/circuit/microarchitecture for one thing, which at the
moment is x86. The right process for x86 laptop/desktop is not necessarily
the right process for smartphone/tablet. And even over the last few years,
when they try to push a mediocre design, they don't do so well: Atom-based
low-power systems haven't matched up well against AMD's Bobcat-based products,
and aren't selling well these days. And Itanium ...
anon's argument is a bit circular: when Intel has a high-volume product
on their world-beating fabs, they do great. But of course, the products
that don't reach high volume are the ones with weak design. And Intel has
had plenty of those (several generations of Itanium; original Pentium4; Atom).
Can they design a great smartphone/tablet SoC ? It's not impossible; but
I wouldn't put the odds any higher than 50%, based on the complexity of the
challenge, and their track record. You're welcome to make a different judgment.
> When the smartphone/tablet rose, it met neither of these requirements. What we have
> was companies like Apple design their own SoCs for use in their own devices.
> But now, as we have lots of companies buying large quantities of of-the-shelf SoC chips
> to use in their devices, it begins to meet Intel's business model requirements.
Not really. It seems to me there are two classes of smartphone/tablet product -
the premium high-end high-margin products, mostly from Apple and Samsung; and the
commodity products with so-so specs and razor-thin margins. There isn't an opportunity
for Intel in the high-end products - at least for now - because Apple and Samsung
want that margin for themselves; and while there might be an opportunity in the
other segment, it's unlike to have the kind of margins that Intel wants to get
from its leading-edge fabs.
