By: Richard Cownie (tich.delete@this.pobox.com), February 2, 2013 5:05 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Ricardo B (ricardo.b.delete@this.xxxxxx.xx) on February 2, 2013 4:05 pm wrote:
> No, they can do that integration for anything they can develop and fabricate
> in house, provided it generates enough revenue to sustain the R&D.
> Ie, they can't do that integration for a ARM core from ARM, but they can do it if they develop their own.
They can tune the circuit and microarchitecture to the process for anything,
with enough effort. They can't simultaneously tune the process to be optimal
for two different purposes. So it would be unreasonable to expect the same
level of global optimization that they can apply to their main business, x86.
> But Intel's ability to f**k up does not show they can't compete outside x86.
anon has been arguing that Intel's manufacturing excellence (which I don't
dispute) will make success in the smartphone/tablet inevitable. I'm suggesting
that such success is by no means inevitable, because they can screw up the
design, and in fact over the long term have screwed up about as often as they have
succeeded, especially when attacking new markets. And in fact, that's rather
normal across all companies: breaking into new markets is hard for everyone.
I don't see anything circular about suggesting that Intel's chance of success
is about the same as their success rate in the past.
> > commodity products with so-so specs and razor-thin margins. There isn't an opportunity
> > for Intel in the high-end products - at least for now - because Apple and Samsung
> > want that margin for themselves; and while there might be an opportunity in the
> > other segment, it's unlike to have the kind of margins that Intel wants to get
> > from its leading-edge fabs.
>
>
> NVIDIA and Qualcomm beg to differ.
>
> Samsung does not own the high end non-iPhone market.
> Besides Samsung, you have half a dozen companies competing to produce high end
> smartphones/tablets and they'll buy their SoCs from whoever can deliver.
Other than Apple and Samsung, those other companies are barely making a profit.
So yes, they'll buy their SoC's from a variety of suppliers, but I think not
at margins that would look attractive to Intel if the products have to come from
near-leading-edge fabs. They can't afford it.
> No, they can do that integration for anything they can develop and fabricate
> in house, provided it generates enough revenue to sustain the R&D.
> Ie, they can't do that integration for a ARM core from ARM, but they can do it if they develop their own.
They can tune the circuit and microarchitecture to the process for anything,
with enough effort. They can't simultaneously tune the process to be optimal
for two different purposes. So it would be unreasonable to expect the same
level of global optimization that they can apply to their main business, x86.
> But Intel's ability to f**k up does not show they can't compete outside x86.
anon has been arguing that Intel's manufacturing excellence (which I don't
dispute) will make success in the smartphone/tablet inevitable. I'm suggesting
that such success is by no means inevitable, because they can screw up the
design, and in fact over the long term have screwed up about as often as they have
succeeded, especially when attacking new markets. And in fact, that's rather
normal across all companies: breaking into new markets is hard for everyone.
I don't see anything circular about suggesting that Intel's chance of success
is about the same as their success rate in the past.
> > commodity products with so-so specs and razor-thin margins. There isn't an opportunity
> > for Intel in the high-end products - at least for now - because Apple and Samsung
> > want that margin for themselves; and while there might be an opportunity in the
> > other segment, it's unlike to have the kind of margins that Intel wants to get
> > from its leading-edge fabs.
>
>
> NVIDIA and Qualcomm beg to differ.
>
> Samsung does not own the high end non-iPhone market.
> Besides Samsung, you have half a dozen companies competing to produce high end
> smartphones/tablets and they'll buy their SoCs from whoever can deliver.
Other than Apple and Samsung, those other companies are barely making a profit.
So yes, they'll buy their SoC's from a variety of suppliers, but I think not
at margins that would look attractive to Intel if the products have to come from
near-leading-edge fabs. They can't afford it.