By: Richard Cownie (tich.delete@this.pobox.com), February 3, 2013 6:24 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
anon (anon.delete@this.anon.com) on February 2, 2013 10:32 pm wrote:
> And, if I must spell it out again, I did not say some absolute that even if their manufacturing model
> suits it, success is "inevitable". You mused that you did not foresee any way for Intel to retain dominance
> if this occurs. But based on what has happened in the past (e.g., in server market), Intel traditionally
> does very well. Given that the ARM market has not obviously greater barrier to entry than the server market
> and there are several obvious ways in, this is a very realistic route that Intel can go.
It's relatively easy to take a low-end product in a high-volume market, and move
it upwards into a higher-margin lower-volume market when the technology advances
far enough to give it the necessary capability. That's how minicomputers grew up to
challenge mainframes; then microcomputers grew up to challenge minicomputers;
and x86 grew up into workstations and then servers.
It's harder to expand downwards, for various reasons.
I think you should apply to be Intel's CEO, since they've spent the
last few years struggling, and failing, to gain a tiny foothold in smartphone/tablet chips,
and you know "several obvious ways" for them to do it. Good luck.
> And, if I must spell it out again, I did not say some absolute that even if their manufacturing model
> suits it, success is "inevitable". You mused that you did not foresee any way for Intel to retain dominance
> if this occurs. But based on what has happened in the past (e.g., in server market), Intel traditionally
> does very well. Given that the ARM market has not obviously greater barrier to entry than the server market
> and there are several obvious ways in, this is a very realistic route that Intel can go.
It's relatively easy to take a low-end product in a high-volume market, and move
it upwards into a higher-margin lower-volume market when the technology advances
far enough to give it the necessary capability. That's how minicomputers grew up to
challenge mainframes; then microcomputers grew up to challenge minicomputers;
and x86 grew up into workstations and then servers.
It's harder to expand downwards, for various reasons.
I think you should apply to be Intel's CEO, since they've spent the
last few years struggling, and failing, to gain a tiny foothold in smartphone/tablet chips,
and you know "several obvious ways" for them to do it. Good luck.