ASP estimates

Article: Microservers must Specialize to Survive
By: Daniel Bizo (fejenagy.delete@this.gmail.com), February 5, 2013 6:31 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Richard Cownie (tich.delete@this.pobox.com) on February 4, 2013 5:01 pm wrote:
> Daniel Bizo (fejenagy.delete@this.gmail.com) on February 4, 2013 3:45 pm wrote:

>
> I would agree the numbers are questionable, and if anyone cares to present evidence
> for different numbers, I would welcome better information.
>

Fair point, I don't care enough to dig up examples. I've seen Apple iPhone 5 BOM analysises that varied greatly for the SoC.

>
> I think that trend may reverse, because a) with A15/Krait-class cores in future,
> together with better-optimized Android software, it seems that dual-core phones
> will be sufficient for the vast majority of users; b) now that screen resolution
> has reached 1080p, the pixel counts aren't likely to increase much further so the
> GPU's don't need to get much faster (again, for the vast majority)
>

Good point, I cannot argue with any hard evidence to the contrary, but I disagree.

My projection is that even if what you just described was true, that stagnation will only be temporary and smarphones will be become pretty much primary personal devices due to their intimacy with users. As such, they should be in centre for personal computing with other devices (tablets, notebooks, TVs) playing a support, auxiliary role. As a result, smartphone logic and storage will get ever more complex and sophisticated (app specific circuits, agressive OoOE, DRAM stacking, Flash stacking, Storage Class Memory stacking) powerful but at the same time, extremely limited in power usage. This should really open up the market for differentiation and an ever tougher SoC development race.

>
>
> I remain skeptical about whether Intel really has a strength in microarchitecture
> design for low-power devices - it seems to me that's a very different problem than
> high-end core design, and also one where both ARM cores, and AMD's Bobcat, seem
> arguably as good as Intel's efforts so far.
>

Bobcat is a much higher power design, can't touch smartphones. Atom can scale-up, but it seems Haswell may scale down for tablets after all. I think that's pretty darn impressive compared to where Intel was only a couple of years ago. Admittedly, it took many good years for them to produce these, and will take another 1-2 to really get there where they are headed.


>
> The process disadvantage only comes into play if Intel is willing to use bleeding-edge
> fab capacity for sub-$20 ASP smartphone chips instead of over-$60 laptop chips,
> which seems very questionable (even given the likely ratios of die area, the revenue
> per mm2 would seem unlikely to favor the smartphone chips).
>

Assuming you are right that SoC ASPs will erode and that revenue per sqmm will also be much lower. On the other hand, Intel claims Atom will be on process parity with other products by 2014, on the 14nm node. So even it won't be the very first to gain access to a new process, they won't lag behind by more than 6-9 months. Which is still an huge advantage over TSMC, GloFo, what have you. Especially when you consider their history for paper launching new processes without any volumes coming out for another 3-4 quarters with products that push the evelope.


> It seems that part of the reason why they sold XScale in 2006 was that it couldn't
> compete effectively against TI and others on old fabs, and they weren't willing to use the
> new fabs for a low-margin product. Possibly that changes if the decline of x86
> continues, we'll see.
>

Exactly, times are very different, and they may not really have a choice but give Atoms priority. After all, they won the PC and server wars against everybody else, why bother? Delaying a PC or server chip by 6 months won't really make a difference, AMD is irrelevant and incapable beyond belief.



>
> It's the same thing, isn't it ? They can make good chips, but can they sell them
> at a price they'll be happy with ? There seem to be quite a lot of non-technical
> obstacles to achieving anything Intel would count as "success" - viz, enough revenue
> *and* gross margin to keep building big fabs even as x86 declines.
>

Sadly for Intel, not really the same. The smartphone market is not that fluid at all on the supply side. You can't just gradually penetrate the market with small steps, you have to win over OEMs in chuncks.

Intel has to break the ARM ecosystem. Winning some designs with Motorola here and with ZTE there just won't cut it. You have to build huge commitments that run into buying millions and tens of millions of chip a year.

Simply having a better chip is necessary but not enough. Intel doesn't need to be simply better, it has to maniacally race ahead and leave Qualcomm and the likes so far behind that will make at least one big OEM to switch big time.

If you are right and that smartphones are reaching a "good enough" altitude, it would be disastrous for Intel's smartphone efforts -- but it would also mean the PC is protected from further cannibalisation. That's not too bad if they can resume growing the global PC penetration, which is still rather low.
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Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveDavid Kanter2013/01/28 01:47 PM
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                    Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveRichard Cownie2013/01/31 12:25 PM
                      Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Surviveanon2013/01/31 12:47 PM
                        Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveRichard Cownie2013/01/31 01:36 PM
                          Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Surviveanon2013/01/31 04:59 PM
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                              Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Surviveanon2013/01/31 06:47 PM
                                Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveRichard Cownie2013/01/31 07:16 PM
                                  Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveRichard Cownie2013/01/31 07:36 PM
                                    Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Surviveanon2013/02/01 01:47 AM
                                      Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveRichard Cownie2013/02/01 04:26 AM
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                                                                ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/02 06:07 PM
                                                                  ASP estimatesRicardo B2013/02/02 06:48 PM
                                                                    ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/02 07:04 PM
                                                                      ASP estimatesanon2013/02/02 10:19 PM
                                                                        ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/03 06:06 AM
                                                                          ASP estimates...cache?Per Hesselgren2013/02/03 12:08 PM
                                                                      ASP estimatesMichael S2013/02/03 02:51 AM
                                                                        ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/03 06:10 AM
                                                                          ASP estimatesDaniel Bizo2013/02/04 03:45 PM
                                                                            ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/04 05:01 PM
                                                                              ASP estimatesJS2013/02/05 04:25 AM
                                                                              ASP estimatesDaniel Bizo2013/02/05 06:31 AM
                                                                                ASP estimatesRichard Cownie2013/02/05 06:46 AM
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                                                                        ARM OEMs get free silicon?Richard Cownie2013/02/04 12:17 PM
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                                                                              ARM OEMs get free silicon?izotop2013/02/07 06:11 AM
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            Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Surviverwessel2013/01/30 03:54 PM
          Or compare to *desktop* ASPsMark Roulo2013/01/30 03:51 PM
            Or compare to *desktop* ASPsrwessel2013/01/30 04:07 PM
            Or compare to *desktop* ASPsCeleron2013/01/30 05:49 PM
            Or compare to *desktop* ASPsDoug S2013/01/30 09:50 PM
              Or compare to *desktop* ASPsrwessel2013/01/30 11:04 PM
              when thoughput matters, ultra-cheap Intel CPUs are not attractiveMichael S2013/01/31 02:59 AM
                when thoughput matters, ultra-cheap Intel CPUs are not attractiveDoug S2013/01/31 12:00 PM
                  when thoughput matters, ultra-cheap Intel CPUs are not attractiveMichael S2013/01/31 02:04 PM
                    Price/perf curve on intel.Jouni Osmala2013/01/31 11:28 PM
                    when thoughput matters, ultra-cheap Intel CPUs are not attractiveDoug S2013/02/01 04:45 PM
                      when thoughput matters, ultra-cheap Intel CPUs are not attractiverwessel2013/02/02 01:54 AM
              Or compare to *desktop* ASPsGabriele Svelto2013/01/31 03:33 AM
    Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveDoug S2013/01/29 10:36 AM
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        Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to SurviveNo2013/01/29 03:32 PM
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    Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Survivebakaneko2013/01/30 01:32 AM
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        Cache size experiments may have been done on ARMsMark Roulo2013/01/30 02:14 PM
          Way and line locking and associativityPaul A. Clayton2013/01/30 03:08 PM
            Way and line locking and associativityMark Roulo2013/01/30 03:37 PM
        Cache capacity benefits may have been done in simulationPatrick Chase2013/01/30 07:25 PM
          Simulation has benefits but is SLOWPaul A. Clayton2013/01/30 09:08 PM
            Simulation has benefits but is SLOWPatrick Chase2013/01/30 10:36 PM
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      Article Online: Microservers must Specialize to Survivesoupdragon2013/01/31 12:02 PM
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  4x or 10x advantageS. Rao2013/01/30 05:35 PM
    4x or 10x advantagerwessel2013/01/30 06:32 PM
      4x or 10x advantageS. Rao2013/02/03 10:32 PM
        4x or 10x advantageDavid Kanter2013/02/03 11:09 PM
        4x or 10x advantagerwessel2013/02/04 12:08 AM
          x86_64Richard Cownie2013/02/04 05:52 PM
            x86_64Michael S2013/02/05 02:51 AM
              x86_64Richard Cownie2013/02/05 04:33 AM
                x86_64EduardoS2013/02/05 04:41 AM
                  x86_64sJ2013/02/05 05:52 AM
                  x86_64Richard Cownie2013/02/05 06:47 AM
                x86_64someone2013/02/05 09:22 AM
                  x86_64Richard Cownie2013/02/05 09:44 AM
              "Just recompile"Mark Roulo2013/02/05 08:40 AM
                "Just recompile"Michael S2013/02/05 10:35 AM
                  "Just recompile"Mark Roulo2013/02/05 10:55 AM
  Virtualization and custom interconnectsGabriele Svelto2013/01/31 05:05 AM
  x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/01 10:11 PM
    x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturempx2013/02/02 04:31 AM
      x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/02 09:27 AM
        Heterogenous multicore in serversPaul A. Clayton2013/02/02 10:25 AM
    x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureanon2013/02/02 05:04 AM
      x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/02 09:42 AM
        x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/02 09:58 AM
        x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/02 10:26 AM
        x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureanon2013/02/02 05:49 PM
          x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePer Hesselgren2013/02/03 01:44 AM
            x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureMichael S2013/02/03 02:59 AM
          x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/03 02:27 PM
            x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureanon2013/02/03 02:58 PM
              x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/03 03:35 PM
                x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/03 03:39 PM
                x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureanon2013/02/03 06:08 PM
                  x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturePatrick Chase2013/02/03 08:05 PM
                    x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureanon2013/02/03 09:52 PM
                      x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitectureDavid Kanter2013/02/03 11:23 PM
                        U shape curve on performance...Jouni Osmala2013/02/04 01:07 AM
                          U shape curve on performance...none2013/02/04 03:03 AM
                            U shape curve on performance...Michael S2013/02/04 07:55 AM
                              U shape curve on performance...Patrick Chase2013/02/04 10:14 AM
                                U shape curve on performance...Michael S2013/02/04 02:43 PM
                                  U shape curve on performance...Patrick Chase2013/02/04 04:06 PM
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                          U shape curve on performance...Michael S2013/02/04 07:48 AM
                          U shape curve on performance...Patrick Chase2013/02/04 10:05 AM
                            It only works if ... ??Paul A. Clayton2013/02/04 12:20 PM
                              It only works if ... ??Patrick Chase2013/02/04 12:48 PM
                                It only works if ... ??Patrick Chase2013/02/04 01:02 PM
                                It only works if ... ??Patrick Chase2013/02/04 01:08 PM
                                  It only works if ... ??Patrick Chase2013/02/04 01:15 PM
                                  It only works if ... ??anon2013/02/04 05:45 PM
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                      x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturerwessel2013/02/04 12:28 AM
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              spec95 vs Spec2kPer Hesselgren2013/02/04 04:42 AM
              spec95 vs Spec2kbakaneko2013/02/04 04:48 AM
                correct linksMichael S2013/02/04 06:10 AM
              spec95 vs Spec2kPatrick Chase2013/02/04 11:47 AM
                spec95 vs Spec2kPatrick Chase2013/02/04 11:55 AM
                  spec95 vs Spec2kMichael S2013/02/04 01:39 PM
                    spec95 vs Spec2kPatrick Chase2013/02/04 02:07 PM
                    spec95 vs Spec2knone2013/02/04 04:28 PM
                      spec95 vs Spec2kMichael S2013/02/05 02:35 AM
                spec95 vs Spec2kMichael S2013/02/04 01:50 PM
                spec95 vs Spec2k (hair-splitting)Kira2013/02/04 03:26 PM
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        x86 penalty depends on performance and microarchitecturenone2013/02/02 10:43 AM
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            Cortex A9 ROBPatrick Chase2013/02/02 02:01 PM
              Cortex A9 ROBnone2013/02/04 04:12 PM
                Cortex A9 ROBPatrick Chase2013/02/04 04:43 PM
                  Cortex A9 ROBnone2013/02/04 04:58 PM
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      ARM diversity might be an advantagePatrick Chase2013/02/03 04:29 PM
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          ARMv8 cleanlinessPatrick Chase2013/02/03 07:40 PM
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              Does AArch64 not support table node page sizes?Patrick Chase2013/02/03 10:14 PM
                Does AArch64 not support table node page sizes?none2013/02/04 02:55 AM
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            ARMv8 cleanlinessanon2013/02/03 10:06 PM
              ARMv8 cleanlinessrwessel2013/02/04 12:37 AM
                ARMv8 cleanlinessMichael S2013/02/04 01:50 AM
              ARMv8 cleanlinessEtienne2013/02/04 08:01 AM
                Similar to Thumb If-Then instructionPaul A. Clayton2013/02/04 08:43 AM
                  Similar to Thumb If-Then instructionEtienne2013/02/05 07:22 AM
                ARMv8 cleanlinessJouni Osmala2013/02/04 11:15 PM
                  ARMv8 cleanlinessEtienne2013/02/05 06:57 AM
                    ARMv8 cleanlinessJouni Osmala2013/02/05 07:59 AM
                      ARMv8 cleanlinessEtienne2013/02/05 08:55 AM
              ARMv8 cleanlinessMaynard Handley2013/02/13 03:53 PM
                ARMv8 cleanlinessGabriele Svelto2013/02/14 01:37 AM
                ARMv8 cleanlinessEtienne2013/02/14 06:00 AM
                  ARMv8 cleanlinessrwessel2013/02/14 04:03 PM
                ARMv8 cleanlinessSeni2013/02/14 07:45 AM
                  ARMv8 cleanlinessrwessel2013/02/14 04:14 PM
                    ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/14 04:44 PM
                      ARMv8 cleanlinessGabriele Svelto2013/02/15 02:28 AM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessEduardoS2013/02/15 10:45 AM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessMax2013/02/15 01:24 PM
                          ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/15 05:46 PM
                            ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/15 06:34 PM
                              ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/17 01:47 PM
                                ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/17 04:08 PM
                                  ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/18 05:14 PM
                                    ARMv8 cleanlinessanon2013/02/19 01:56 AM
                                      ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/19 02:20 PM
                                    ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/19 10:13 AM
                                      ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/19 02:10 PM
                                        ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/19 06:16 PM
                                          ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/19 06:41 PM
                                            ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/25 06:05 AM
                                              ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/25 06:22 PM
                                                ARMv8 cleanlinessnone2013/02/26 01:31 AM
                                                  ARMv8 cleanlinessMichael S2013/02/26 05:05 AM
                                                ARMv8 cleanlinessDavid Hess2013/02/26 11:01 PM
                                                  ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/27 11:22 AM
                                                    ARMv8 cleanlinessDavid Hess2013/03/01 01:58 PM
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                                                        What is wrong with ARM?David Hess2013/03/01 07:49 PM
                                                          What is wrong with ARM?Michael S2013/03/02 05:11 PM
                                                            What is wrong with ARM?David Hess2013/03/03 11:32 PM
                                                              What is wrong with ARM?Michael S2013/03/04 02:05 AM
                                                        What is wrong with ARM?David Hess2013/03/07 06:30 PM
                                                          Thank you very much!Paul A. Clayton2013/03/07 07:59 PM
                                                            Thank you very much!David Hess2013/03/07 11:22 PM
                                                              Thank you very much!gallier22013/03/08 01:43 AM
                                                                Thank you very much!David Hess2013/03/08 11:24 AM
                                                                  Thank you very much!Ungo2013/03/08 04:37 PM
                                                                    Thank you very much!David Hess2013/03/08 08:47 PM
                                                            Thank you very much!Ricardo B2013/03/08 05:07 AM
                                                              ARM lackings a historical accident?Paul A. Clayton2013/03/08 08:54 AM
                                                                ARM lackings a historical accident?Ricardo B2013/03/08 03:33 PM
                                                          What is wrong with ARM?Michael S2013/03/08 06:25 AM
                                                            What is wrong with ARM?David Hess2013/03/08 12:37 PM
                                                            What is wrong with ARM?dmsc2013/03/12 03:47 PM
                                                          What is wrong with ARM?dmsc2013/03/12 03:43 PM
                                                      ARMv8 cleanlinessMichael S2013/03/02 05:06 PM
                                                    ParityAndi Kleen2013/03/03 01:47 PM
                                                      ParityLinus Torvalds2013/03/03 03:06 PM
                                                        ParityAndi Kleen2013/03/03 07:15 PM
                                            Except the borrow bitMatthew D2013/02/26 12:07 AM
                                              Except the borrow bitrwessel2013/02/26 12:42 AM
                                              Except the borrow bitLinus Torvalds2013/02/26 11:13 AM
                                                are ZSCO flags really fundamental?Michael S2013/02/27 04:24 PM
                                                  are ZSCO flags really fundamental?Linus Torvalds2013/02/27 05:41 PM
                                                    are ZSCO flags really fundamental?Michael S2013/02/28 01:39 AM
                                                    are ZSCO flags really fundamental?2013/03/01 10:23 AM
                                                  are ZSCO flags really fundamental?EduardoS2013/02/27 11:07 PM
                                                    are ZSCO flags really fundamental?Michael S2013/02/28 04:58 AM
                                                  are ZSCO flags really fundamental?rwessel2013/02/28 12:29 AM
                                                    are ZSCO flags really fundamental?rwessel2013/02/28 12:32 AM
                                                    Bit numbering on big endian machinesKonrad Schwarz2013/02/28 01:49 AM
                                                      Bit numbering on big endian machinesrwessel2013/02/28 02:32 AM
                                          ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/25 05:54 AM
                                            ARMv8 cleanlinessEduardoS2013/02/25 06:24 AM
                                              ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/25 07:36 AM
                                                ARMv8 cleanlinessEduardoS2013/02/25 01:06 PM
                                                  ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/25 05:24 PM
                                                    ARMv8 cleanlinessEduardoS2013/02/25 05:55 PM
                                                    Utility of data loss exceptionsPaul A. Clayton2013/02/25 08:18 PM
                                                      Utility of data loss exceptionsrwessel2013/02/26 01:00 AM
                                                        Excessively expensive mode changingPaul A. Clayton2013/02/26 06:15 AM
                                                      Utility of data loss exceptionsEduardoS2013/02/26 02:55 AM
                                                        Utility of data loss exceptionsTREZA2013/02/26 04:53 AM
                                                          Utility of data loss exceptionsEduardoS2013/02/26 05:37 AM
                                                      Utility of data loss exceptionsEtienne2013/02/26 06:01 AM
                                            1b vs. 4b not a huge difference?Paul A. Clayton2013/02/25 09:57 AM
                                  Possible benefit of multi-bit CCPaul A. Clayton2013/02/23 08:09 AM
                                ARMv8 cleanlinessrwessel2013/02/18 12:01 AM
                                  ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/18 05:33 PM
                                    ARMv8 cleanlinessEduardoS2013/02/18 08:18 PM
                                      ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/25 06:19 AM
                      ARMv8 cleanlinessTREZA2013/02/15 04:21 AM
                      ARMv8 cleanliness2013/02/17 10:49 AM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/17 11:54 AM
                          ARMv8 cleanlinessLinus Torvalds2013/02/17 11:58 AM
                          ARMv8 cleanlinessnone2013/02/17 04:36 PM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessTREZA2013/02/17 11:59 AM
                          ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/17 12:30 PM
                            and-compare and or-comparePaul A. Clayton2013/02/17 05:28 PM
                              early branch resolutionanon2013/02/18 02:05 AM
                                My ignorance about compilers is vasterPaul A. Clayton2013/02/18 01:30 PM
                                early branch resolutionanon2013/02/18 05:12 PM
                              early branch resolution?EBFE2013/02/19 01:03 AM
                                Early resolution: some but limited potentialPaul A. Clayton2013/02/19 05:52 PM
                                  Early resolution: some but limited potentialhobold2013/02/20 02:02 PM
                                    PPC750 was an inspirationPaul A. Clayton2013/02/23 08:09 AM
                          ARMv8 cleanlinessTREZA2013/02/17 01:53 PM
                            ARMv8 cleanlinessExophase2013/02/17 04:49 PM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessWilco2013/02/17 12:07 PM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessbakaneko2013/02/17 12:43 PM
                        ARMv8 cleanlinessJouni Osmala2013/02/17 01:10 PM
                          -1 comparison true seems betterPaul A. Clayton2013/02/17 06:07 PM
                  ARMv8 cleanlinessEtienne2013/07/17 02:58 AM
      ARM server benchmark- why Apache?Per Hesselgren2013/02/05 12:13 AM
        ARM server benchmark- why Apache?anon2013/02/05 12:38 AM
          ARM server benchmark- why Apache?Per Hesselgren2013/02/05 01:25 AM
            ARM server benchmark- why Apache?Michael S2013/02/05 02:13 AM
          ARM server benchmark- why Apache?Michael S2013/02/05 01:51 AM
          I think that was debunked alreadyDavid Kanter2013/02/05 07:36 PM
        ARM server benchmark- why Apache?bakaneko2013/02/06 02:37 AM
          ARM server benchmark- why Apache?Michael S2013/02/06 03:43 AM
            Marketing to PHBs?Paul A. Clayton2013/02/06 06:40 AM
            ARM server benchmark- why Apache?bakaneko2013/02/06 07:08 AM
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