Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com) on September 30, 2013 6:11 pm wrote:
> Kevin G (kevin.delete@this.cubitdesigns.com) on September 30, 2013 10:53 am wrote:
> > RichardC (tich.delete@this.pobox.com) on September 30, 2013 7:19 am wrote:
> > > I believe they're feeling the pinch already - didn't they recently scale back their
> > > fab investment plans ? But the question is where they'll be in 4 or 5 years. And if
> > > I really knew the answer to that I'd be getting rich ...
> >
> > Indeed. They halted a 22 nm expansion to Fab 24:
> > http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/08/30/intel-wont-move-fab-24-to-22-nm-no-change-in-cap-ex/
> >
> > One oddity in Intel's announcements is that they plan on
> > having three 14 nm plants. Intel only has two 22 nm
> > plants and they were claiming excess 22 nm capacity. That
> > leaves me scratching my head as how they expect to
> > maintain capacity with three 14 nm plants, one of which is
> > 450 mm wafer based. Intel's plans call for more mobile
> > devices which 14 nm production will be key, but that wouldn't make up the increased volume would it?
>
> My prediction is on die ReRAM, would require large dies despite a shrink.
> Huge SWAG as I do not know if the specs and economics makes this possible.
>
> > There is the chance that Intel will become more aggressive with its foundry plans for 3rd
> > party IP. That could certainly fill up any remaining capacity that Intel's own designs
> > cannot in theory. However, 3rd party IP accouterments have all been rather low volume.
>
>


all of you are assuming that the ARM fab ecosystem is making losses after selling such cheap silicon. not true at all. TSMC and Samsung foundry are still making money.

As for capex, Intel will spend $11bn in 2013 with $2bn reserved for 450mm trial (not production, just trial). TSMC will spend $10.5bn and Samsung $7-8bn. GloFo will spend $5bn. The ARM ecosystem spends significantly more and all these players are making money. Just look at TSMC's P&L. So what is the outlook for Intel's edge in process node? How long will it sustain with these guys bearing down on it at such a rate...