Moore's Law provided Planned Obsolescence

By: Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar), January 23, 2014 8:54 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
hobold (hobold.delete@this.vectorizer.org) on January 23, 2014 1:31 am wrote:
> Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on January 22, 2014 11:31 pm wrote:
>
> [...]
> > But since AMD is not only not on
> > Intel's throat, but are tripping over their own feet, maybe Intel leaves that idea on
> > the shelf, because they don't really benefit from an extra 4% gain today.
> >
> Back when performance increased exponentially, newer faster CPUs made existing older machines appear obsoleted.
> This felt roughly proportional to speedup, i.e. 1% faster made old machines appear 1% obsolete, but 100% faster
> made them seem 100% obsolete. (This is not meant to be a real formula, just an illustration of a trend.)
>
> Moore's Law provided the PC industry with a natural "planned obsolescence". Perhaps Intel
> themselves think that competition from AMD is the main reason to keep pushing single thread
> performance. But if Intel does not make their new processors notably faster than existing
> ones, then customers don't have much of a reason to replace their computers.
>
> Integrating more stuff on the processor die makes some sense for new machines, due to cost reduction.
> But an existing machine with discrete components has already been paid for; if it isn't outperformed,
> then progress in terms of higher integration does not obsolete the old box.
>
> It seems to me that nowadays, only advances in performance/Watt are still big enough to
> obsolete existing machines. But that reason is compelling only for supercomputers, not for
> mass market consumers who have electricity bills that are orders of magnitude lower.
>
>
> Long talk, little sense: I think Intel does have an incentive to keep pushing
> single thread performance, even without AMD chasing. Higher performance used
> to be a major incentive for customers to replace their old computers.


I think that was driven by software requirements. In particular, new versions of Windows used to always require more performance and more RAM.

There has been zero additional demand for performance since Vista. 7 and 8 and likely 9 had for all practical purposes the same requirements.

The same is true for application software. There hasn't been anything new people want to do that requires more power (other than browsers seemingly demanding Moore's Law increases in RAM over the years, but that doesn't help Intel)

Whether Intel increases performance 10% or 100% every two years matters little to the 90% of the userbase for whom their last computer provided adequate performance. So there isn't any incentive for Intel to deliver that today. May as well hold it back, so if something happens that makes performance matter again Intel can deliver an extra large jump by pulling out all the rabbits they've been keeping in their hat and all the aces they've been saving up their sleeve.
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TopicPosted ByDate
Some cinebench scores and IPCTimothy McCaffrey2014/01/17 09:27 PM
  Many Thanks :) (NT)Alberto2014/01/18 02:12 AM
  Thanks! :-) (NT)Poindexter2014/01/19 04:46 AM
  Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?slacker2014/01/19 11:47 AM
    Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Brett2014/01/19 12:48 PM
      Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Alberto2014/01/19 02:08 PM
        Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Exophase2014/01/19 07:48 PM
          Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Alberto2014/01/20 02:15 AM
            Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Exophase2014/01/20 02:45 AM
              Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Alberto2014/01/21 04:42 AM
                Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Exophase2014/01/21 08:10 AM
                  Monopolies holding back advancementsDoug S2014/01/21 06:04 PM
                    Monopolies holding back advancementsMaxwell2014/01/22 08:00 AM
                      Monopolies holding back advancementsDoug S2014/01/22 11:31 PM
                        Moore's Law provided Planned Obsolescencehobold2014/01/23 01:31 AM
                          Moore's Law provided Planned ObsolescenceDoug S2014/01/23 08:54 PM
                            Moore's Law provided Planned Obsolescencehobold2014/01/24 03:02 AM
                              Moore's Law provided Planned ObsolescenceDoug S2014/01/24 01:18 PM
        Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Maynard Handley2014/01/19 10:26 PM
          Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Exophase2014/01/19 11:01 PM
            Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Maynard Handley2014/01/20 03:25 AM
              Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Patrick Chase2014/01/21 10:13 AM
                Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Patrick Chase2014/01/21 12:31 PM
          Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Patrick Chase2014/01/21 09:19 AM
            Intel and branch predictionDavid Kanter2014/01/21 10:26 AM
              Intel and branch predictionMaynard Handley2014/01/21 08:52 PM
                Intel and branch predictionMaynard Handley2014/01/21 09:14 PM
                No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPaul A. Clayton2014/01/21 10:04 PM
                  No dynamic predication yet, I suspectExophase2014/01/22 12:29 AM
                    No dynamic predication yet, I suspectdmcq2014/01/22 05:24 AM
                    No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPatrick Chase2014/01/22 11:36 PM
                      No dynamic predication yet, I suspectMaynard Handley2014/01/23 08:51 AM
                        No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPatrick Chase2014/01/23 11:59 AM
                          No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPatrick Chase2014/01/23 12:01 PM
                          16 misses per core on Haswell?David Kanter2014/01/23 06:10 PM
                            16 misses per core on Haswell?Patrick Chase2014/01/23 08:12 PM
                          No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPatrick Chase2014/01/27 06:34 PM
                            Fixed link to paperPaul A. Clayton2014/01/28 08:51 AM
                        No dynamic predication yet, I suspectPatrick Chase2014/01/23 12:29 PM
                      SMT influence on ROB size?Paul A. Clayton2014/01/23 11:26 AM
                        SMT influence on ROB size?Patrick Chase2014/01/23 08:40 PM
    Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Exophase2014/01/19 07:44 PM
    Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?anon2014/01/19 08:43 PM
      Is Cinebench a totally useless benchmark?Timothy McCaffrey2014/01/20 04:24 PM
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