juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 16, 2014 2:56 am wrote:
> David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on August 15, 2014 3:01 pm wrote:
> > juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 15, 2014 11:39 am wrote:
> > > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on August 15, 2014 9:41 am wrote:
> > >
> > > > I also am skeptical that anyone can match Intel in performance while trailing behind by a node. To do that,
> > > > it is necessary to offer a very different product with a
> > > > different system architecture. E.g., target workloads
> > > > where cache does not help and simply slap down more memory controllers and cores (hint: that's a GPU!).
> >
> > > The ISA advantage will be greatly reduced in the top-end
> > > side of the performance spectrum, but will not vanish.
> > > Keller mentioned during Core Day conference that his K12
> > > core will have a "bigger engine" than its x86 sister
> > > thanks to the advantages of ARMv8 over x86-64, which allows to spend more transistors on compute.
> >
> > I happen to know the differences between those two designs. I'm not really sure it's
> > going to translate into a significant performance delta. My guess is maybe 10%.
>
>
> Care to explain how you got the 10% figure? It looks a bit low for me. Thanks
>
>
> > > Another key is that Intel process advantage will be reduced.
> > > Those server-class ARM SoCs that I >mentioned will
> > > be made on 14/16 nm FinFET. Broadwell-EP and Skylake-EP on 14nm FinFET will not have a full node >advantage.
> >
> > Actually they will. The foundry 16nm process will have substantially worse density. The minimum metal pitch
> > for the foundries is 64nm, vs. 52nm for Intel. That's about a 20% difference, which is quite significant.
>
>
> And a ~50% density advantage is not "a full node advantage" as I mentioned just
> above. Intel _traditional_ process advantage has vanished, as others agree,
>
> http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/microprocessors-and-dsps/whats-new-14nm-processors-intel-2014-08/
>
> > I'm also rather skeptical that we'll see 16nm FinFET in production before the end of 2015.
> > TSMC won't be in high volume on 20nm till 3Q when the new iPhone comes out. I expect that
> > 16nm FinFET will take at least a year, and quite possibly more to hit high volume.
>
>
> TSMC claims _10nm_ risk production for late 2015. 16nm is being produced now (check above link). ARM server
> 16nm parts will be available during 2015--2016. Broadwell has been delayed again to late 2015.
>
>

Broadwell, as of a few days ago, was still on track for holiday 2014 for low-power devices, and a broader rollout in 1H15.

http://newsroom.intel.com/community/intel_newsroom/blog/2014/08/11/intel-discloses-newest-microarchitecture-and-14-nanometer-manufacturing-process-technical-details