Kira (kirsc.delete@this.aeterna.ru) on August 16, 2014 9:07 am wrote:
> juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 16, 2014 2:56 am wrote:
> > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on August 15, 2014 3:01 pm wrote:
> > > juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 15, 2014 11:39 am wrote:
> > > > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on August 15, 2014 9:41 am wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > I also am skeptical that anyone can match Intel in performance while trailing behind by a node. To do that,
> > > > > it is necessary to offer a very different product with a
> > > > > different system architecture. E.g., target workloads
> > > > > where cache does not help and simply slap down more memory controllers and cores (hint: that's a GPU!).
> > >
> > > > The ISA advantage will be greatly reduced in the top-end
> > > > side of the performance spectrum, but will not vanish.
> > > > Keller mentioned during Core Day conference that his K12
> > > > core will have a "bigger engine" than its x86 sister
> > > > thanks to the advantages of ARMv8 over x86-64, which allows to spend more transistors on compute.
> > >
> > > I happen to know the differences between those two designs. I'm not really sure it's
> > > going to translate into a significant performance delta. My guess is maybe 10%.
> >
> >
> > Care to explain how you got the 10% figure? It looks a bit low for me. Thanks
> >
> >
> > > > Another key is that Intel process advantage will be reduced.
> > > > Those server-class ARM SoCs that I >mentioned will
> > > > be made on 14/16 nm FinFET. Broadwell-EP and Skylake-EP on 14nm FinFET will not have a full node >advantage.
> > >
> > > Actually they will. The foundry 16nm process will have substantially worse density. The minimum metal pitch
> > > for the foundries is 64nm, vs. 52nm for Intel. That's about a 20% difference, which is quite significant.
> >
> >
> > And a ~50% density advantage is not "a full node advantage" as I mentioned just
> > above. Intel _traditional_ process advantage has vanished, as others agree,
> >
> > http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/microprocessors-and-dsps/whats-new-14nm-processors-intel-2014-08/
> >
> > > I'm also rather skeptical that we'll see 16nm FinFET in production before the end of 2015.
> > > TSMC won't be in high volume on 20nm till 3Q when the new iPhone comes out. I expect that
> > > 16nm FinFET will take at least a year, and quite possibly more to hit high volume.
> >
> >
> > TSMC claims _10nm_ risk production for late 2015. 16nm is being produced now (check above link). ARM server
> > 16nm parts will be available during 2015--2016. Broadwell has been delayed again to late 2015.
> >
> >
>
> Broadwell, as of a few days ago, was still on track for holiday
> 2014 for low-power devices, and a broader rollout in 1H15.
>
> http://newsroom.intel.com/community/intel_newsroom/blog/2014/08/11/intel-discloses-newest-microarchitecture-and-14-nanometer-manufacturing-process-technical-details

I wouldn't trust anything in that www.electronicsweekly.com story. (It lost all credibility when it went off on some strange tangent about providing Apple with an A57 variant.) BUT
I think you're being too optimistic about Intel's 14nm. Let's read the Intel press release closely (ie like a lawyer). Here's what they say:
"
• The first systems based on the Intel® Core™ M processor will be on shelves for the holiday selling season followed by broader OEM availability in the first half of 2015.
• Additional products based on the Broadwell microarchitecture and 14nm process technology will be introduced in the coming months.
"

So what will be available 1H15 is more Broadwell-Y parts --- ie the parts that may be of interest to Surface Pro 4 and similar devices, but are probably not of interest to even MacBook Air level devices, let alone larger laptops and desktops.
REAL Broadwell devices get the very specific due date of "coming months" which doesn't indicate much confidence on the part of Intel as to when they might ship.

Charlie at SemiAccurate has stated that dual-core parts will arrive in six months, and quad-core in eleven months. You can have whatever opinion you like about his accuracy, but everything Intel has said, HOW they have said it, and what they have NOT said, fits with such an (extremely delayed) schedule.