By: David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com), August 16, 2014 11:27 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
> > I happen to know the differences between those two designs. I'm not really sure it's
> > going to translate into a significant performance delta. My guess is maybe 10%.
>
>
> Care to explain how you got the 10% figure? It looks a bit low for me. Thanks
My expertise in computer architecture and knowing the differences between the two designs.
> > > Another key is that Intel process advantage will be reduced.
> > > Those server-class ARM SoCs that I >mentioned will
> > > be made on 14/16 nm FinFET. Broadwell-EP and Skylake-EP on 14nm FinFET will not have a full node >advantage.
> >
> > Actually they will. The foundry 16nm process will have substantially worse density. The minimum metal pitch
> > for the foundries is 64nm, vs. 52nm for Intel. That's about a 20% difference, which is quite significant.
>
>
> And a ~50% density advantage is not "a full node advantage" as I mentioned just
> above. Intel _traditional_ process advantage has vanished, as others agree,
>
> http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/microprocessors-and-dsps/whats-new-14nm-processors-intel-2014-08/
Anyone who believes that doesn't know what is going on.
If you look at Intel's 22nm high volume production vs. TSMC 20nm, there's about a two year gap (or more).
Remember that what's important is comparing when Intel ships products to customers and when TSMC customers ship comparable complexity products to customers, in similar volumes. TSMC risk production (i.e., hey we got a good die per wafer!!!!) is not comparable to Intel production (i.e., the factory is barfing out hundreds of thousands of good dice).
Intel launched IVB in 2Q12.
Apple will launch the new SoC in 3Q14.
That's basically a two year gap.
There's no indication that gap will narrow.
> > I'm also rather skeptical that we'll see 16nm FinFET in production before the end of 2015.
> > TSMC won't be in high volume on 20nm till 3Q when the new iPhone comes out. I expect that
> > 16nm FinFET will take at least a year, and quite possibly more to hit high volume.
>
>
> TSMC claims _10nm_ risk production for late 2015. 16nm is being produced now (check above link). ARM server
> 16nm parts will be available during 2015--2016. Broadwell has been delayed again to late 2015.
1. Get your facts correct: Broadwell parts will ship this year.
2. TSMC may be making 16nm wafers, but I don't care about that (hint: Intel is making 10nm wafers now...). I care when TSMC customers are shipping products in high volume to customers (and I don't count FPGAs because they are very different).
David
> > going to translate into a significant performance delta. My guess is maybe 10%.
>
>
> Care to explain how you got the 10% figure? It looks a bit low for me. Thanks
My expertise in computer architecture and knowing the differences between the two designs.
> > > Another key is that Intel process advantage will be reduced.
> > > Those server-class ARM SoCs that I >mentioned will
> > > be made on 14/16 nm FinFET. Broadwell-EP and Skylake-EP on 14nm FinFET will not have a full node >advantage.
> >
> > Actually they will. The foundry 16nm process will have substantially worse density. The minimum metal pitch
> > for the foundries is 64nm, vs. 52nm for Intel. That's about a 20% difference, which is quite significant.
>
>
> And a ~50% density advantage is not "a full node advantage" as I mentioned just
> above. Intel _traditional_ process advantage has vanished, as others agree,
>
> http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/microprocessors-and-dsps/whats-new-14nm-processors-intel-2014-08/
Anyone who believes that doesn't know what is going on.
If you look at Intel's 22nm high volume production vs. TSMC 20nm, there's about a two year gap (or more).
Remember that what's important is comparing when Intel ships products to customers and when TSMC customers ship comparable complexity products to customers, in similar volumes. TSMC risk production (i.e., hey we got a good die per wafer!!!!) is not comparable to Intel production (i.e., the factory is barfing out hundreds of thousands of good dice).
Intel launched IVB in 2Q12.
Apple will launch the new SoC in 3Q14.
That's basically a two year gap.
There's no indication that gap will narrow.
> > I'm also rather skeptical that we'll see 16nm FinFET in production before the end of 2015.
> > TSMC won't be in high volume on 20nm till 3Q when the new iPhone comes out. I expect that
> > 16nm FinFET will take at least a year, and quite possibly more to hit high volume.
>
>
> TSMC claims _10nm_ risk production for late 2015. 16nm is being produced now (check above link). ARM server
> 16nm parts will be available during 2015--2016. Broadwell has been delayed again to late 2015.
1. Get your facts correct: Broadwell parts will ship this year.
2. TSMC may be making 16nm wafers, but I don't care about that (hint: Intel is making 10nm wafers now...). I care when TSMC customers are shipping products in high volume to customers (and I don't count FPGAs because they are very different).
David
