David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on August 16, 2014 11:27 am wrote:
> > > I happen to know the differences between those two designs. I'm not really sure it's
> > > going to translate into a significant performance delta. My guess is maybe 10%.
> >
> >
> > Care to explain how you got the 10% figure? It looks a bit low for me. Thanks
>
> My expertise in computer architecture and knowing the differences between the two designs.
>
> > > > Another key is that Intel process advantage will be reduced.
> > > > Those server-class ARM SoCs that I >mentioned will
> > > > be made on 14/16 nm FinFET. Broadwell-EP and Skylake-EP on 14nm FinFET will not have a full node >advantage.
> > >
> > > Actually they will. The foundry 16nm process will have substantially worse density. The minimum metal pitch
> > > for the foundries is 64nm, vs. 52nm for Intel. That's about a 20% difference, which is quite significant.
> >
> >
> > And a ~50% density advantage is not "a full node advantage" as I mentioned just
> > above. Intel _traditional_ process advantage has vanished, as others agree,
> >
> > http://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/components/microprocessors-and-dsps/whats-new-14nm-processors-intel-2014-08/
>
> Anyone who believes that doesn't know what is going on.
>
> If you look at Intel's 22nm high volume production vs. TSMC 20nm, there's about a two year gap (or more).
>
> Remember that what's important is comparing when Intel ships products to customers and when
> TSMC customers ship comparable complexity products to customers, in similar volumes. TSMC
> risk production (i.e., hey we got a good die per wafer!!!!) is not comparable to Intel production
> (i.e., the factory is barfing out hundreds of thousands of good dice).
>
> Intel launched IVB in 2Q12.
>
> Apple will launch the new SoC in 3Q14.
>
> That's basically a two year gap.
>
> There's no indication that gap will narrow.

There is evidence that it is not longer two years, see below.

> > > I'm also rather skeptical that we'll see 16nm FinFET in production before the end of 2015.
> > > TSMC won't be in high volume on 20nm till 3Q when the new iPhone comes out. I expect that
> > > 16nm FinFET will take at least a year, and quite possibly more to hit high volume.
> >
> >
> > TSMC claims _10nm_ risk production for late 2015. 16nm is being produced now (check above link). ARM server
> > 16nm parts will be available during 2015--2016. Broadwell has been delayed again to late 2015.
>
> 1. Get your facts correct: Broadwell parts will ship this year.

Only the low-volume parts will do. Broadwell-K, -E, and -EP are delayed to Q4 2015.

> 2. TSMC may be making 16nm wafers, but I don't care about that (hint: Intel is making
> 10nm wafers now...). I care when TSMC customers are shipping products in high volume
> to customers (and I don't count FPGAs because they are very different).
>

TSMC 16nm is on risk production now. Products are expected in 2015--2016. Thus ARM 16nm server products will be competing against Intel 14nm Server products.