By: Jouni Osmala (josmala.delete@this.cc.hut.fi), August 18, 2014 1:36 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
I agree on you with ISA effect between ARM and Intel, but for process there is no-one like Intel, and that's the strong enough force that makes cows fly.
They put more money on process development than anyone for decades they probably got the best process engineers since everyone in the field knows if you want to be ahead of everyone else go to Intel. There are plenty of parameters to tune with different trade offs then you should consider the pipeline between starting to develop a manufacturing process to having product at the hands of the customers, that pipeline is quite long and people make announcements at different stages of that pipeline and you have clearly mistaken those stages. Intel got improved transistors in their 22nm process and now others are aiming in their 14nm process to have same improvement in their transistors, but Intel got nice improvement over their 22nm transistors. So in the end, the manufacturing process might actually be the thing that keeps x86 ahead of ARM indefinitely.
As for delay of Broadwell what I think has happened is that 22nm has really good yields and 14nm yield improvement curve changed temporarily its trajectory to not improving as fast as traditionally it has and they had to put on hold the retooling for 14nm process, and then they got it back few months later. And that was quite close to point in which they would start converting for mass production but just below it. Now if everyone else has same problem, then there is bigger delay between some production and high volume complex chip than normally.
They put more money on process development than anyone for decades they probably got the best process engineers since everyone in the field knows if you want to be ahead of everyone else go to Intel. There are plenty of parameters to tune with different trade offs then you should consider the pipeline between starting to develop a manufacturing process to having product at the hands of the customers, that pipeline is quite long and people make announcements at different stages of that pipeline and you have clearly mistaken those stages. Intel got improved transistors in their 22nm process and now others are aiming in their 14nm process to have same improvement in their transistors, but Intel got nice improvement over their 22nm transistors. So in the end, the manufacturing process might actually be the thing that keeps x86 ahead of ARM indefinitely.
As for delay of Broadwell what I think has happened is that 22nm has really good yields and 14nm yield improvement curve changed temporarily its trajectory to not improving as fast as traditionally it has and they had to put on hold the retooling for 14nm process, and then they got it back few months later. And that was quite close to point in which they would start converting for mass production but just below it. Now if everyone else has same problem, then there is bigger delay between some production and high volume complex chip than normally.