Daniel B (fejenagy.delete@this.gmail.com) on August 26, 2014 5:00 am wrote:
> juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 25, 2014 12:29 pm wrote:
> > juanrga (nospam.delete@this.juanrga.com) on August 21, 2014 2:15 am wrote:
> > > As showed before, Intel traditional process advantage is gone:
> > >

> > >
• AMD 32nm SOI Opteron did fight 22nm FF Xeons.

> > >
• ARM 28nm PLN phone-class processors is fighting 22nm FF Atoms.

> > >
• ARM 16nm FF server-class processors will fight 14nm FF BW/SL Xeons.

> > >

> > >
> > > Thus, ARM servers (including K12 from AMD) will be only half node from Intel, reducing the gap.
> > > And ARM has a clear ISA advantage over x86 ISA. This is the reason why AMD is embracing ARM servers
> > > and claiming that will be a revolution similar to the introduction of 64bit Opterons.
> > >
> > > It was also stated before, that TSMC has increased finances up to Intel level. Moreover,
> > > TSMC has just broken record with revenues reaching NT$61.887 billion and it is ordering machinery
> > > equipment worth T$1.2 billion. It is expected by everyone (including Intel) that TSMC achieves
> > > parity at 10nm node, both in some key node parameters and in schedule.
> > >
> > > Also it was mentioned lots of times before, that the x86 tax is not only in the decoder.
> >
> > And TSMC has accelerated roadmap and will start 16nm volume production in 1Q15:
> >
> > Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will advance volume production on its 16nm
> > process to the first quarter of 2015 with monthly output of 50,000 wafers in order to meet demand
> > for Apple's A9 processors, the Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) has reported.
> >
> > TSMC originally planned to kicked off 16nm volume production in second-quarter 2015.
> > TSMC faces strong competition from Samsung Electronics' foundry business.
> >
> > http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140825PB201.html
> >
> > Broadwell-EP @14nm vs ARM server-class @16nm will be an interesting figth to watch.
>
>
> TSMC hasn't even ramped 20nm up, and Apple is just about to release A8. But you believe the
> two will get A9 on 16nm in volume production in Q1 next year. You were not the brightest in
> your class, were you? If this news piece has any truth to it, that will be early small-batch
> engineering test runs for tape-out and validation work. Probably targeted for a late 2015
> or 2016 production. 50k wpm on 16nm in Q1? Try to sell that on Seeking Alpha maybe.
>
> Alas, there won't be 16nm ARM server parts ready when 14nm 2-4P Xeons will be shipping. Applied
> Micro claimed 2015 for 16nm Skylarks, but even 20nm X-Genes are yet to be released. We will
> be lucky to get the first 16nm server-class ARM chips in H2 2016. You might think that's only
> a year difference, but that's only because you don't understand how Intel's 14nm should be
> so much more better than TSMC's 16nm by all metrics, except probably density.
>
>
There are no 20nm X-Genes on the roadmap:
- X-Gene 1 40nm
- X-Gene 2 28nm
- X-Gene 3 16nm Finfet

Agree with your timelines though. Applied Micro is quite concervative with picking processes for their X-Gene SOCs. For X-Gene 3 they probably want to wait until all kinks are worked out before starting production volumes. Would not be surprised if we have to wait until 2017 for that to happen.