But can it beat an optimized OoO?

By: Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com), November 1, 2014 12:25 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on October 31, 2014 10:26 pm wrote:
> > The bulldozer core was over optimized for server use, the server market is where Intel
> > makes it's money. Money that is used to punish competitors in the other markets.
>
> Intel makes profits in servers, but their stronghold is really in high volume (e.g.,
> NB+DT). Without those, the server market would be much more difficult for Intel.

Today, Intel was more than happy to make little money in the volume desktop market when AMD had competitive products, Intel made up the difference in mobile and server. AMD only has the design dollars to attack one market at a time.

> >AMD has
> > fewer problems making chips for mid range mobile and mid range desktop.
>
> The problem is that AMD has been confined to a value play.

Even when AMD had faster chips than Intel, Intel's market power confined AMD to the value plays, the consumer market.
And when AMD got too much of the high end consumer market Intel used marketing funds to put a quota on AMD sales at Best Buy. The consumer shopped elsewhere and Best Buys sales dropped, Wall Street was not amused by falling growth. Add anti-trust fears and all the leaks from minimum wage workers at Best Buy about how sales work, and Best Buy ended the Quota on AMD systems, which meant giving up the marketing kickbacks. The next quarter Best Buys sales were back up, but the profits were down hard.

Best Buy needed the foot traffic for other sales from people shopping for PC's. Sales growth is more important than profits to Wall Street. Which is not to say Wall Street was not pissed about the profit drop either.

After locking AMD out of Best Buy failed, Intel just plain wrecked the profitability of the desktop market, shifting profits to Mobile and Server.

AMD knew it was not always going to have the fastest CPU, this was a fluke cause by Intel's Itanic fiasco. As you have stated multiple times.

A value CPU needs a smaller die size to make a profit, sharing a vectorFPU and caches and even instruction decoders does this. These are the same changes that work good for an 8 core server CPU that will of course be thermally limited. This gives you the best throughput per watt. Add a few shrinks and your server CPU trickles down to the value desktop market. Maximizes your return on design cost by hitting several markets over time.

Even if AMD had an exact copy of Intel's Core chips AMD would still be at least a shrink behind, and thus lower performance, higher watts, and higher cost. AMD would still be confined to a value play, and with a larger more expensive chip, that is even less profitable.

AMD made the right choices, it is just that with Intel's market power the outcome was always going to be the same. AMD does not have the volume to be more than a cat toy.

> >Servers is all
> > that matters for AMD to make money, without servers AMD will NEVER make a dime.
>
> Ah Brett, yet again you should a consistent lack of insight and inability to learn from recent events.

I have mocked your ad hominem attack with the truth about how markets work, and showing why the Bulldozer line was the best approach for AMD to take. Most people think Bulldozer was a mistake, it was not, all the alternatives AMD is capable of with it's fab partners and volumes are worse.

> AMD has no servers today and they made $17M this quarter.

The (17) means a loss of $17 million in Computing and Graphics, on only $781 million in revenue.
AMD Embedded and Semi-custom made $108 million on $648 million in revenue.

AMD has stated that they need $2000 million in revenue to get Intel style profit margins.
Intel has kept AMD at ~$1400 even as AMD added $648 million in embedded sales in two short years.
AMD fired it's CEO over this, as if he mattered.

If AMD is ever able to get and keep 2000 million in revenue Intel is doomed, AMD would then have the volumes and resulting cubic dollars to hire more and bigger design teams to catch up.

> David

Clearly AMD is never going to matter.
But that does not mean Intel is going to ride off in to the sunset as a profitable monopoly forever.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and now Apple and Qualcomm and Samsung and others are all piling into to CPU design market, looking at those juicy margins that are being commoditized.

The attack of the killer $15 SOC's will lay waste to Intel, just as killer PC laid waste to DEC.
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TopicPosted ByDate
Soft MachinesSymmetry2014/10/23 12:54 PM
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                          Soft Machines InventionsMaynard Handley2014/10/29 10:01 AM
                            Vaguely reminscent of Sun's Rock (NT)Paul A. Clayton2014/10/29 08:56 PM
                          Soft Machines Inventionsjuanrga2014/10/30 08:00 AM
                            Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/30 12:16 PM
                              Soft Machines Inventionsjuanrga2014/10/30 12:52 PM
                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?ex-apple2014/10/29 08:15 AM
                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/10/30 08:51 AM
                            But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/10/31 05:34 PM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/10/31 10:26 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/01 11:07 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/01 12:25 PM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/01 03:26 PM
                                    But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/08 04:10 PM
                                      But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/09 12:08 AM
                                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/09 01:51 AM
                                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/09 02:05 AM
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                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAlberto2014/11/19 02:55 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsegallier22014/11/18 01:55 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/19 10:22 AM
                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/19 10:31 AM
                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/20 09:33 AM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 10:14 AM
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                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 12:10 PM
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                                                                                              What I hope is only a slight tangentTerry A Gray2014/11/23 03:42 PM
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                                                                                                VAX could HAVE made it...gallier22014/11/24 08:26 AM
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                                                                                                    John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Ricardo B2014/11/25 04:34 PM
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                                                                                                      Yet another form of "worse is better" ? (NT)Michael S2014/11/29 12:12 PM
                                                                                                        Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/11/30 07:23 PM
                                                                                                          Yet another form of "worse is better" ?dmcq2014/12/01 02:08 AM
                                                                                                            Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Jouni Osmala2014/12/01 11:19 PM
                                                                                                              Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/12/02 01:54 PM
                                                                                                                Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Stunk2014/12/03 01:45 PM
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                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationPeter Lund2014/11/27 01:13 PM
                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationRonald Maas2014/11/29 09:58 AM
                                                                                                    Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationJouni Osmala2014/11/30 03:08 AM
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                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/20 11:13 AM
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                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/21 03:49 AM
                                                                                          GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopPaul A. Clayton2014/11/21 05:29 AM
                                                                                            GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopLinus Torvalds2014/11/21 10:14 AM
                                                                                Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Mark Roulo2014/11/19 11:17 AM
                                                                                  Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Kira2014/11/20 07:35 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDuane2014/11/19 11:57 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/17 04:14 PM
                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDoug S2014/11/17 10:52 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/17 08:11 PM
                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 07:20 AM
                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/17 05:38 PM
                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 08:10 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseNo one2014/11/18 07:25 AM
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                                                            How many CPU cores?Michael S2014/12/10 02:10 AM
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                                                          How many CPU cores?Konrad Schwarz2014/12/10 09:23 AM
                                      The x86 core is Zenjuanrga2014/11/09 06:44 AM
                                        The x86 core is Zendmcq2014/11/16 05:09 AM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?Ken H2014/11/02 09:54 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/03 12:29 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Heikki Kultala2014/11/04 05:01 AM
                                  Bulldozer design 'stupidity'Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 09:16 AM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'juanrga2014/11/04 12:14 PM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'h2014/11/04 01:14 PM
                                      Bulldozer module as drop-in macro?Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 01:26 PM
                                      Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Heikki Kultala2014/11/16 11:12 PM
                                        Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Y2014/11/18 10:06 AM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/11/04 12:18 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Exophase2014/11/09 08:01 PM
                      Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/29 09:20 AM
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            How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?none2014/10/25 02:15 PM
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          Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/28 10:59 AM
    Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:48 PM
      SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 05:17 PM
        SemiAccurate on Soft MachinesBrendan2014/10/24 12:49 AM
        SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesdmcq2014/10/24 03:55 AM
        Are they on 28 nm?Kevin G2014/10/26 04:23 PM
          Are they on 28 nm?ex-apple2014/10/26 04:47 PM
      Soft Machinessomeone2014/10/24 08:53 AM
    pipeline lengthHeikki Kultala2014/10/24 12:50 AM
  Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:31 PM
  Soft Machinesjust some guy2014/10/24 04:50 AM
    Soft MachinesMr. Camel2014/10/24 10:16 AM
  Soft Machines investorsMichael S2014/10/25 11:06 AM
    Why? (NT)Megol2014/10/25 12:46 PM
    Soft Machines investor backstoryex-apple2014/10/28 09:30 PM
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