But can it beat an optimized OoO?

By: Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com), November 8, 2014 4:10 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on November 1, 2014 3:26 pm wrote:
> Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com) on November 1, 2014 12:25 pm wrote:
> > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on October 31, 2014 10:26 pm wrote:
> > > > The bulldozer core was over optimized for server use, the server market is where Intel
> > > > makes it's money. Money that is used to punish competitors in the other markets.
> > >
> > > Intel makes profits in servers, but their stronghold is really in high volume (e.g.,
> > > NB+DT). Without those, the server market would be much more difficult for Intel.
> >
> > Today, Intel was more than happy to make little money in the volume desktop market
> > when AMD had competitive products, Intel made up the difference in mobile and
> > server. AMD only has the design dollars to attack one market at a time.
> >
> > > >AMD has
> > > > fewer problems making chips for mid range mobile and mid range desktop.
> > >
> > > The problem is that AMD has been confined to a value play.
> >
> > Even when AMD had faster chips than Intel, Intel's market power
> > confined AMD to the value plays, the consumer market.
>
> AMD used to have around 50% of the 4S server market. They used to have ~25% of the
> 2S server market. That's not a value play, and their server ASPs were quite high.

AMD was competing against Intel's antique shared front side bus systems. Four sockets with four on chip memory controllers against four chips with one off chip memory controller.
And still AMD was mostly only able to get the University/academic big computing clusters. You tell me, what part of business server sales did AMD get, 10%? Yes, AMD got a few google type sales, but at the fortune 1000 AMD was largely absent, and locked out by threats from Intel against Dell and HP. Until SuperMicro(?) started making serious inroads, but by then the tide was turning.

AMD will never seriously compete in the x86 server market again, Intel has a shrink advantage and can afford to spend more on optimizing transistor power use, which is worth another shrink. Bulldozer was AMD's only chance to keep up by sharing FPU/Vector, decoders, etc. It failed.

I expect the x86 K12 to be aimed at high end gamers, with hardly a nickel spent on anything server related, outside of marketing bullshit.

The ARM K12 will get whatever AMD can afford to make it competitive. Dumping x86 complexities is worth maybe one shrink, not going to rock anyones socks off or get back the big computing clusters.
A holding action to force Intel to drop server prices, so that the competition in desktop and mobile is not so brutal.

Prediction:
The best desktop and laptop design for today is a big-little mix of Bulldozer style share everything CPU's with some share nothing cores of basically the same design. Which is not to say that AMD has the design dollars and talent to pull this off.
You get a few percent by not sharing L2, another few by not sharing L3, etc. So you get ~two cores with the absolute best performance, and the rest sacrifice performance in exchange for perf/watt.

> [snip]
>
> > AMD knew it was not always going to have the fastest CPU, this was a fluke
> > cause by Intel's Itanic fiasco. As you have stated multiple times.
>
> Not just that, but AMD executed well with K8.
>
> > A value CPU needs a smaller die size to make a profit, sharing
> > a vectorFPU and caches and even instruction decoders
> > does this. These are the same changes that work good for
> > an 8 core server CPU that will of course be thermally
> > limited. This gives you the best throughput per watt. Add
> > a few shrinks and your server CPU trickles down to
> > the value desktop market. Maximizes your return on design cost by hitting several markets over time.
>
> That was the theory.
>
> > Even if AMD had an exact copy of Intel's Core chips AMD would still be at least a shrink behind,
> > and thus lower performance, higher watts, and higher cost. AMD would still be confined to
> > a value play, and with a larger more expensive chip, that is even less profitable.
>
> Yup - nobody can beat Intel at their own game, that's just
> silly. To beat Intel, you must think 'outside the box'.
>
> > AMD made the right choices, it is just that with Intel's market power the outcome was
> > always going to be the same. AMD does not have the volume to be more than a cat toy.
> >
> > > >Servers is all
> > > > that matters for AMD to make money, without servers AMD will NEVER make a dime.
> > >
> > > Ah Brett, yet again you should a consistent lack of insight and inability to learn from recent events.
> >
> > I have mocked your ad hominem attack with the truth about how markets work, and showing why the Bulldozer
> > line was the best approach for AMD to take. Most people think Bulldozer was a mistake, it was not,
> > all the alternatives AMD is capable of with it's fab partners and volumes are worse.
> >
> > > AMD has no servers today and they made $17M this quarter.
> >
> > The (17) means a loss of $17 million in Computing and Graphics, on only $781 million in revenue.
> > AMD Embedded and Semi-custom made $108 million on $648 million in revenue.
>
> http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1978751
>
> That's 17M of net income, $0.02/share earnings.

Scroll down, AMD lost 17M in the PC half of the business. Hard to lose money when all you sell are bobcat/Jaguar/puma class chips, but Intel makes so much even those are getting undercut.
AMD is back to where they were before the K8, irrelevant.

> > AMD has stated that they need $2000 million in revenue to get Intel style profit margins.
> > Intel has kept AMD at ~$1400 even as AMD added $648 million in embedded sales in two short years.
> > AMD fired it's CEO over this, as if he mattered.
>
> He wasn't fired.

Only fired people get 5M in cash golden parachutes, plus 1,673,766 shares, plus 764,939 shares, which is another 6M almost.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/141014/amd8-k_a.html

Dr. Su is an engineering person, who I would hire if I was just planning on selling the company when the next generation chips came out. Her job is to make the chips come out on time, nothing else.

> > If AMD is ever able to get and keep 2000 million in revenue Intel is doomed, AMD would then have
> > the volumes and resulting cubic dollars to hire more and bigger design teams to catch up.
>
> Why

This is based on Intel's behaviors, at 2000 million in revenue AMD is a viable company, Intel does not want that.
At AMD's peak Intel actually had to work to make margins, it was not just free monopoly money. Where you decide not to raise prices even higher because it would hurt growth. Wall Street is happy with the margins, raising the margins higher could wreak the company, unsustainable margin pressure.

Even at 2000 million AMD is not really a threat, Intel does not want to have to work for it's money.

So instead AMD is going to get bought by a company that does have money, and will become a threat.

> > > David
> >
> > Clearly AMD is never going to matter.
> > But that does not mean Intel is going to ride off in to the sunset as a profitable monopoly forever.
> > Nature abhors a vacuum, and now Apple and Qualcomm and Samsung and others are all piling
> > into to CPU design market, looking at those juicy margins that are being commoditized.
> >
> > The attack of the killer $15 SOC's will lay waste to Intel, just as killer PC laid waste to DEC.
>
> That's entirely possible.
>
> David
< Previous Post in ThreadNext Post in Thread >
TopicPosted ByDate
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                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/10/30 08:51 AM
                            But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/10/31 05:34 PM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/10/31 10:26 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/01 11:07 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/01 12:25 PM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/01 03:26 PM
                                    But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/08 04:10 PM
                                      But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/09 12:08 AM
                                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/09 01:51 AM
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                                                                                              What I hope is only a slight tangentTerry A Gray2014/11/23 03:42 PM
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                                                                                  Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Kira2014/11/20 07:35 AM
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                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/17 08:11 PM
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                                                                How many CPU cores?anon2014/12/09 11:28 PM
                                                                  How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/10 01:13 AM
                                                                    How many CPU cores?anon2014/12/10 04:15 AM
                                                                      How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/10 07:06 AM
                                                                        How many CPU cores?anon2014/12/10 07:14 AM
                                                            How many CPU cores?Brett2014/12/09 01:28 AM
                                                              How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/09 05:25 AM
                                                              How many CPU cores?Ann O. Nym2014/12/09 12:15 PM
                                                                How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/09 02:04 PM
                                                                  How many CPU cores?Ann O. Nym2014/12/10 05:37 AM
                                                                    How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/11 03:16 AM
                                                            How many CPU cores?Michael S2014/12/10 02:10 AM
                                                              How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/10 07:07 AM
                                                          How many CPU cores?Konrad Schwarz2014/12/10 09:23 AM
                                      The x86 core is Zenjuanrga2014/11/09 06:44 AM
                                        The x86 core is Zendmcq2014/11/16 05:09 AM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?Ken H2014/11/02 09:54 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/03 12:29 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Heikki Kultala2014/11/04 05:01 AM
                                  Bulldozer design 'stupidity'Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 09:16 AM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'juanrga2014/11/04 12:14 PM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'h2014/11/04 01:14 PM
                                      Bulldozer module as drop-in macro?Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 01:26 PM
                                      Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Heikki Kultala2014/11/16 11:12 PM
                                        Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Y2014/11/18 10:06 AM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/11/04 12:18 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Exophase2014/11/09 08:01 PM
                      Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/29 09:20 AM
  Soft MachinesGabriele Svelto2014/10/23 02:09 PM
    Soft MachinesMaynard Handley2014/10/23 02:29 PM
    Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 02:32 PM
      Soft MachinesSteve2014/10/24 09:37 AM
        How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?ex-apple2014/10/24 12:08 PM
          How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?mpx2014/10/25 04:37 AM
            How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?none2014/10/25 02:15 PM
              jazelleHeikki Kultala2014/10/26 12:18 AM
      Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/24 01:27 PM
        Soft Machinesjuanrga2014/10/25 02:34 AM
          Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/28 10:59 AM
    Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:48 PM
      SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 05:17 PM
        SemiAccurate on Soft MachinesBrendan2014/10/24 12:49 AM
        SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesdmcq2014/10/24 03:55 AM
        Are they on 28 nm?Kevin G2014/10/26 04:23 PM
          Are they on 28 nm?ex-apple2014/10/26 04:47 PM
      Soft Machinessomeone2014/10/24 08:53 AM
    pipeline lengthHeikki Kultala2014/10/24 12:50 AM
  Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:31 PM
  Soft Machinesjust some guy2014/10/24 04:50 AM
    Soft MachinesMr. Camel2014/10/24 10:16 AM
  Soft Machines investorsMichael S2014/10/25 11:06 AM
    Why? (NT)Megol2014/10/25 12:46 PM
    Soft Machines investor backstoryex-apple2014/10/28 09:30 PM
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