How many CPU cores?

By: Ronald Maas (rmaas.delete@this.wiwo.nl), November 9, 2014 4:23 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on November 9, 2014 2:43 pm wrote:
> > And although I agree with you Intel is executing with admirable precision, I see some
> > weak spots in their armor that should allow the competition (basically ARM64) to gain
> > a foot hold in most segments of the server market. E.g. HPC, low-end and midrange servers,
> > etc. Basically everything except the absolute high-end is vulnerable.
>
> On what timescale?

Almost for certain any prediction made today for the server space will end up wrong, but try to give it my best shot.

It took AMD 2 years to go from zero to 25% market share with their 64-bit Hammer CPU. But I do not think ARM 64-bit adoption rates will be that fast. First reason is potential customer probably need at least an extra year to digest impact of different ISA and also because some critical software components are not available yet (Oracle Java), or need more time to mature (ACPI, UEFI). Second Hammer was better in all aspects compared to Intel's products at that time, and this is clearly not the case with ARM 64-bit cores available today. In some areas Intel will always be the better option - such as floating point / media processing, and at the high-end of the scale.

So I think we should end up with a market penetration of around 10% in end of 2017. And then stabilizing somewhere between 20% and 50% over the next 10 years or so. Hope you have search option in place for the forum in 2024, so we can revisit this.

>
> I really don't see HPC as being vulnerable at all. Single core performance matters,
> and there's a lot of ecosystem (e.g., infiniband) that just isn't there for ARM.
>
Mellanox and AppliedMicro are working on that: http://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/appliedmicro-x-gene-arm-based-server-platform-utilizing-mellanox-products/

The opportunity for ARM64 is where low power cores can be combined with GPUs. For problems that are not well suited for GPU processing, Xeon will be better.

> > 1) Intel's current high margins on Xeon line is essential to maintain its growth. As traditional desktop /
> > laptop PC market segment is inevitably slowing down, simply
> > because most 3 year old PCs are still fast enough
> > to do their jobs properly, Intel has little manouvering space to start a price war in the server >space.
>
> I agree that they don't want to cut prices for all servers. But their prices
> are quite low on some servers already. There are Xeon E5's that sell for $200.
> They can cut prices on servers where there are competing solutions.
>
Obviously Intel put a lot of thought into their pricing structure to maximize bottom line. There average selling price is around $600 - $700 (cannot remember the exact figure), and they definitely do not want to make their low-end Xeons too powerful so these start competing with their own mid range. Applied Micro and likely others in the near future do not use segmentation (except binning on # cores / frequency), so they have no restrictions on how many high-end features they can bolt on to their products.

> Moreover, they are expanding into networking quite aggressive, so there is upside for Intel as well.

Another thing Intel already started to do is open up their fabs for others companies. Maybe a drop in a bucket today from income perspective, but it may grow to a new substantial revenue source in the upcoming years.

Ronald

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TopicPosted ByDate
Soft MachinesSymmetry2014/10/23 12:54 PM
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                            Vaguely reminscent of Sun's Rock (NT)Paul A. Clayton2014/10/29 08:56 PM
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                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/10/30 08:51 AM
                            But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/10/31 05:34 PM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/10/31 10:26 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/01 11:07 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/01 12:25 PM
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                                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/09 01:51 AM
                                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/09 02:05 AM
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                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/17 08:11 PM
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                                      The x86 core is Zenjuanrga2014/11/09 06:44 AM
                                        The x86 core is Zendmcq2014/11/16 05:09 AM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?Ken H2014/11/02 09:54 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/03 12:29 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Heikki Kultala2014/11/04 05:01 AM
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                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'juanrga2014/11/04 12:14 PM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'h2014/11/04 01:14 PM
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                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/11/04 12:18 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Exophase2014/11/09 08:01 PM
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    Why? (NT)Megol2014/10/25 12:46 PM
    Soft Machines investor backstoryex-apple2014/10/28 09:30 PM
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How do you spell tangerine? 🍊