How many CPU cores?

By: Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com), November 9, 2014 6:22 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on November 9, 2014 9:19 am wrote:
> Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com) on November 9, 2014 1:51 am wrote:
> > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on November 9, 2014 12:08 am wrote:
> > Fine, AMD got to >50% of the MP server market. I was obsessing over how hard it was
> > to create a channel that would even sell AMD servers. It took years before SuperMicro
> > stole enough share that Dell and HP had no choice but to sell AMD servers.
>
> It took roughly 1.5-2 years. Opteron was introduced in late
> 2003, and they started taking significant share in 2005.
>
> > Years that Intel could continue being lazy and unresponsive to the demands of the customers.
> > A company that tried to force the mobile market to the P4 fireball. Plus Itanic.
>
> > A company that puts all it's efforts into just one design, (plus token Atom) when it
> > has ten times the engineers of AMD and could easily afford say three different designs
> > for different markets. Instead of just cache size slicing the one and only design.
>
> Today server chips use the same CPU core, but different fabric, cache, I/O, memory controllers, etc.
>
> Going forward the fabric topology will be even more different
> (e.g., single ring for client, mesh for servers).
>
> There's also a lot of variety in CPU cores at Intel:
>
> 1. Quark

Leading off with the joke shrink of an obsolete core pulled out of the trash bin. (I have heard the errata and instruction timing match an old Intel CPU.)
The irony here is that if Intel had actually kept this core on the market (with a good uncore selection) then today Intel would have significant Phone CPU sales and presence in lots of the markets ARM dominates.

Gigantic missed opportunity.
Low volume prototype startup costs are cheaper starting with an x86 chip, which in turn leads to volume product, which often do not want to re-invest in a CPU change.

The margins on a CPU like Quark are crap, which is why Intel dumped that CPU. But Intel could have hid this without effort as it would be ~100 million dollars, Intel is always blowing a billion dollars a quarter on some fad that does not pan out. (HD TV chips, etc.)

> 2. Silvermont/Atom
> I think Intel is pretty serious about Atom/silvermont and will invest heavily there.

Proof that Intel can copy a Bobcat core and then pummel AMD with it.
Yes, Intel will put "effort" into not really changing anything besides changes for lower power use.
(Intel will spend LOTS of money, but the net effect is going to be yawn inspiring, "Look I can fit in a tablet no one will buy.")

> 3. KNL core

Another failed fad chip, with the goal of monopolizing the high end graphics market with an x86 chip.
A zombie with the potential of a niche in vector CPU computation. A market that ARM would like to go after as it is easy to enter. Which is why this zombie will not die, Intel needs to bat down ARM competitors.

> 4. Haswell/big core

The one big core, as I was saying.

Apple also has one big core, but it clocks at 1.4 GHz and pummels competitors that are clocked twice as high. (The competitors are not great 2 and 3 wide designs.)

Prediction:
Intel will design a low clock wide design CPU. This is somewhat in contradiction to the above prediction that the next Atom will be yawn inspiring, but that is a different chip.

The net effect is that Intel will actually have three different mainstream CPU designs with none of them being a joke like the old Atom. Something Intel should have done a decade or more ago, dragged kicking and screaming into the future, inspiring.

> > Lets shift over to the single socket server market, what was AMD's peak single socket server >market share?
>
> I don't have 1P data from 2005-2007 (when they hit their peak). I do have AMD's
> server ASP, which was around $400-$450 compared to $300ish for Intel.
>
> My real point here is that Intel's poor strategic choices (e.g., P4 core, Itanium, FSB, 32-bit)
> all compounded with AMD's good choices (e.g., 64-bit, integrated memory controller, K8 core) to
> create an opportunity for AMD to break into the server market and across the whole price spectrum
> (not just value; they hit the MP market and had really high ASPs). So it can be done.
>
> Intel simply did not have the power to keep AMD's superior products out of the server space.
> However, once Intel started executing well (e.g., Woodcrest onwards), the tables turned and
> AMD lost share. When AMD mis-executed, they basically exited the market entirely.
>
> What I take away is the following lesson:
>
> -If Intel executes poorly and a competitor executes well,
> the server market will shift and Intel will suffer.
>
> Looking forward, I don't see Intel really stumbling the way they were around 2000-2005. They
> are tightly focused on servers and making smart moves. It's not obvious to me whether competitors
> can really make inroads across the whole market when Intel is executing well.
>
> I think the biggest hope for a competitor is to target a specific niche where they
> can out-execute Intel, since a big perf/power advantage will yield results.

Niches almost by definition do not have the return on investment to fund development, AMD had half the multi socket server market and that did not move the needle on AMD's total sales. Either AMD was capacity constrained or Intel simply took the difference out of AMD's other markets.
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TopicPosted ByDate
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                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/10/30 07:51 AM
                            But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/10/31 04:34 PM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/10/31 09:26 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/01 10:07 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/01 11:25 AM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/01 02:26 PM
                                    But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/08 03:10 PM
                                      But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/08 11:08 PM
                                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/09 12:51 AM
                                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/09 01:05 AM
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                                                              Northwood P4 was still crap, beating much smaller severely memory limited K7 did not make it non-craGabriele Svelto2014/11/14 01:35 PM
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                                                      Fireball ALUs were not half widthanon2014/11/12 04:48 AM
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                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/17 04:00 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsenone2014/11/17 11:59 PM
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                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAlberto2014/11/19 01:55 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsegallier22014/11/18 12:55 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/19 09:22 AM
                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/19 09:31 AM
                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/20 08:33 AM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 09:14 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 10:30 AM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 11:10 AM
                                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 11:23 AM
                                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 09:59 PM
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                                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/23 10:24 AM
                                                                                              What I hope is only a slight tangentTerry A Gray2014/11/23 02:42 PM
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                                                                                                VAX could HAVE made it...gallier22014/11/24 07:26 AM
                                                                                                John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Mark Roulo2014/11/24 03:17 PM
                                                                                                  John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Mark Rouo2014/11/24 03:21 PM
                                                                                                  John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Linus Torvalds2014/11/24 05:17 PM
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                                                                                                    Another bump in complexity...David Kanter2014/11/25 10:02 AM
                                                                                                      Another bump in complexity...Peter Lund2014/11/27 11:51 AM
                                                                                                    John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Ricardo B2014/11/25 03:34 PM
                                                                                                      John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Peter Lund2014/11/27 11:48 AM
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                                                                                                    68k line decoding and opcodesBrett2014/11/28 09:42 AM
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                                                                                                      Yet another form of "worse is better" ? (NT)Michael S2014/11/29 11:12 AM
                                                                                                        Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/11/30 06:23 PM
                                                                                                          Yet another form of "worse is better" ?dmcq2014/12/01 01:08 AM
                                                                                                            Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Jouni Osmala2014/12/01 10:19 PM
                                                                                                              Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/12/02 12:54 PM
                                                                                                                Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Stunk2014/12/03 12:45 PM
                                                                                                Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationJouni Osmala2014/11/25 03:40 AM
                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationPeter Lund2014/11/27 12:13 PM
                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationRonald Maas2014/11/29 08:58 AM
                                                                                                    Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationJouni Osmala2014/11/30 02:08 AM
                                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePeter Lund2014/11/27 12:03 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/20 10:13 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 10:34 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 09:39 PM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/21 02:30 AM
                                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/21 09:33 AM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/21 02:49 AM
                                                                                          GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopPaul A. Clayton2014/11/21 04:29 AM
                                                                                            GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopLinus Torvalds2014/11/21 09:14 AM
                                                                                Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Mark Roulo2014/11/19 10:17 AM
                                                                                  Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Kira2014/11/20 06:35 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDuane2014/11/19 10:57 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/17 03:14 PM
                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDoug S2014/11/17 09:52 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/17 07:11 PM
                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 06:20 AM
                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/17 04:38 PM
                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 07:10 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseNo one2014/11/18 06:25 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/18 09:32 AM
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                                      The x86 core is Zenjuanrga2014/11/09 05:44 AM
                                        The x86 core is Zendmcq2014/11/16 04:09 AM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?Ken H2014/11/02 08:54 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/02 11:29 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Heikki Kultala2014/11/04 04:01 AM
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                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'juanrga2014/11/04 11:14 AM
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                                      Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Heikki Kultala2014/11/16 10:12 PM
                                        Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Y2014/11/18 09:06 AM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/11/04 11:18 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Exophase2014/11/09 07:01 PM
                      Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/29 08:20 AM
  Soft MachinesGabriele Svelto2014/10/23 01:09 PM
    Soft MachinesMaynard Handley2014/10/23 01:29 PM
    Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 01:32 PM
      Soft MachinesSteve2014/10/24 08:37 AM
        How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?ex-apple2014/10/24 11:08 AM
          How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?mpx2014/10/25 03:37 AM
            How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?none2014/10/25 01:15 PM
              jazelleHeikki Kultala2014/10/25 11:18 PM
      Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/24 12:27 PM
        Soft Machinesjuanrga2014/10/25 01:34 AM
          Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/28 09:59 AM
    Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 01:48 PM
      SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 04:17 PM
        SemiAccurate on Soft MachinesBrendan2014/10/23 11:49 PM
        SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesdmcq2014/10/24 02:55 AM
        Are they on 28 nm?Kevin G2014/10/26 03:23 PM
          Are they on 28 nm?ex-apple2014/10/26 03:47 PM
      Soft Machinessomeone2014/10/24 07:53 AM
    pipeline lengthHeikki Kultala2014/10/23 11:50 PM
  Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 01:31 PM
  Soft Machinesjust some guy2014/10/24 03:50 AM
    Soft MachinesMr. Camel2014/10/24 09:16 AM
  Soft Machines investorsMichael S2014/10/25 10:06 AM
    Why? (NT)Megol2014/10/25 11:46 AM
    Soft Machines investor backstoryex-apple2014/10/28 08:30 PM
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