There he goes again on his favorite hobby horse

By: Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org), November 17, 2014 4:14 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on November 17, 2014 10:07 am wrote:
> coppice (coppice.delete@this.dis.org) on November 16, 2014 11:24 pm wrote:
> > David Kanter (dkanter.delete@this.realworldtech.com) on November 16, 2014 9:39 pm wrote:
> > > Linus Torvalds (torvalds.delete@this.linux-foundation.org) on November 16, 2014 5:17 pm wrote:
> > > > After all, the main selling point of Itanium was high IPC. Hmm? It certainly wasn't frequency.
> > >
> > > I'd argue the main selling point of Itanium was the ability to run NSK, VMS, and HP-UX...
> >
> > That's not a selling point. That's a consequence of the
> > selling points. Those systems could have been ported
> > to practically any ISA. They were ported to Itanium because
> > it was 64 bit and backed by Intel. People assumed
> > Intel would do whatever it took to make a success of the platform, and that they had done the due diligence
> > work needed to ensure that success was feasible. If Intel
> > had developed something like the current x86_64 at
> > the time they developed Itanium, people would have ported
> > their OSes to that. Then saying a selling point of
> > x86_64 was that it had the ability to run NSK, VMS and HP-UX would have been just as accurate/inaccurate.
>
>
> No, they were ported to Itanium because Itanium was originally HP's follow on to PA-RISC.
> It was already a VLIW architecture, probably quite similar to what IA-64 ended up as, before
> Intel was even involved. The partnership with Intel was intended to benefit both parties
> - HP not having to continue investing in fabs and gaining Intel's market power, Intel gaining
> an architecture they believed was needed for the future to replace x86.
>
> HP-UX was always going to be migrated to Itanium, the VLIW project it came from WAS PA-RISC 3.0. As HP acquired
> other operating systems like VMS that was also the obvious course of action. That's why I was always annoyed
> by a certain someone who kept talking about Itanium's "growth" in the marketplace. It was simply doing what
> it had been originally designed to do, replacing PA-RISC. The growth was not organic, and as I always predicted,
> the growth ceased and went into decline once HP finally quit selling the last PA-RISC servers.
>

> * Had Intel not chased down the rat hole after the 10 GHz P4 dream, allowing AMD the ability to create
> a 64 bit architecture for x86 and gain Microsoft's blessing of it, the stores would probably be filled
> with IA64 PCs now. *

I'm not sure it would have worked out that way. Intel was, at that point, already in the grip of the MBAs and their visions (delusions) about the company and its place in the world. A substantial reason Itanium never took off was that Intel charged so much for it, and I see little evidence that this was ever going to change much.
So let's assume a world where AMD never has the balls or the skills to introduce x64. What happens?

Your model is that Intel phases out x86 and in some fashion (the details being papered over) "phases in" Itanium.

MY model is that this is Intel's grand plan, yes, BUT there is an important qualification to this grand plan which is that Intel plans to use it Itanium monopoly to damn well prevent the free-fall of PC prices, and that they can get away with this because the world needs to move to a 64-bit architecture. The delusion here is an assumption that no-one else will ever be able to execute at anything like the level of Intel, so they can hold back the tide of Moore's law by sheer force of will, and the world will go along with them. (So basically a replay of Intel vs ARM, only ten years earlier, at the level of something like Intel vs PPC or MIPS or even SPARC for the desktop and, importantly, laptop.) I see no particular reason why Intel would have won this; not unless they did what we, by definition, have ruled out as not being part of the game plan, namely created an x86-64.

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TopicPosted ByDate
Soft MachinesSymmetry2014/10/23 12:54 PM
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                            Vaguely reminscent of Sun's Rock (NT)Paul A. Clayton2014/10/29 08:56 PM
                          Soft Machines Inventionsjuanrga2014/10/30 08:00 AM
                            Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/30 12:16 PM
                              Soft Machines Inventionsjuanrga2014/10/30 12:52 PM
                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?ex-apple2014/10/29 08:15 AM
                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/10/30 08:51 AM
                            But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/10/31 05:34 PM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/10/31 10:26 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/01 11:07 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/01 12:25 PM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/01 03:26 PM
                                    But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/08 04:10 PM
                                      But can it beat an optimized OoO?David Kanter2014/11/09 12:08 AM
                                        But can it beat an optimized OoO?Brett2014/11/09 01:51 AM
                                          But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/09 02:05 AM
                                          How many CPU cores?David Kanter2014/11/09 09:19 AM
                                            How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/11/09 01:46 PM
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                                                  How many CPU cores?David Kanter2014/11/10 12:43 AM
                                                    How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/11/10 06:19 PM
                                                      How many CPU cores?Michael S2014/11/11 02:19 AM
                                                        How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/11/11 02:50 AM
                                                        How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/11/11 08:20 AM
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                                                            How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/11/11 04:21 PM
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                                                  How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/11/10 07:09 PM
                                                How many CPU cores?none2014/11/10 08:36 AM
                                              How many CPU cores?Charles2014/11/11 04:56 AM
                                                How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/11/11 07:22 AM
                                                Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Paul A. Clayton2014/11/11 08:21 AM
                                                  Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Kevin G2014/11/11 09:38 AM
                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Maynard Handley2014/11/11 10:50 AM
                                                      Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?NoSpammer2014/11/14 04:20 PM
                                                        Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Maynard Handley2014/11/14 04:36 PM
                                                          Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?NoSpammer2014/11/16 02:06 PM
                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Brett2014/11/11 06:34 PM
                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?rwessel2014/11/11 09:48 PM
                                                  Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Charles2014/11/12 02:29 AM
                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Michael S2014/11/12 03:02 AM
                                                      Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Doug S2014/11/12 08:41 PM
                                                        Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Linus Torvalds2014/11/13 05:57 PM
                                                          Northwood P4 was definitely not crapsomeone2014/11/14 08:20 AM
                                                            Northwood P4 was definitely not crapDoug S2014/11/14 10:41 AM
                                                            Northwood P4 was definitely not crapLinus Torvalds2014/11/14 12:09 PM
                                                              Northwood P4 was definitely not crapslacker2014/11/14 04:19 PM
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                                                                  Northwood P4 was definitely not crapLinus Torvalds2014/11/14 07:35 PM
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                                                                        Northwood P4 was definitely not crapBrett2014/11/15 02:53 PM
                                                                          Northwood P4 was definitely not crapDoug S2014/11/16 12:00 AM
                                                            Northwood P4 was still crap, beating much smaller severely memory limited K7 did not make it non-craHeikki Kultala2014/11/14 12:40 PM
                                                              Northwood P4 was still crap, beating much smaller severely memory limited K7 did not make it non-craGabriele Svelto2014/11/14 02:35 PM
                                                    Fireball ALUs were not half widthPaul A. Clayton2014/11/12 05:08 AM
                                                      Fireball ALUs were not half widthanon2014/11/12 05:48 AM
                                                        Fireball ALUs were not half widthDan Fay2014/11/12 12:38 PM
                                                          Fireball ALUs were not half widthPatrick Chase2014/11/14 10:36 AM
                                                        Fireball ALUs were not half widthRicardo B2014/11/12 12:51 PM
                                                          Fireball ALUs were not half widthanon2014/11/12 08:37 PM
                                                            Fireball ALUs were not half widthRicardo B2014/11/13 06:19 AM
                                                              Fireball ALUs were not half widthMichael S2014/11/13 06:49 AM
                                                      Fireball ALUs were not half widthCharles2014/11/13 04:00 AM
                                                  Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Charles2014/11/13 07:44 AM
                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Michael S2014/11/13 08:13 AM
                                                      Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Charles2014/11/14 12:53 AM
                                                        Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Patrick Chase2014/11/14 10:47 AM
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                                                            Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Patrick Chase2014/11/14 02:30 PM
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                                                      Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?anon2014/11/14 02:43 AM
                                                        Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Patrick Chase2014/11/14 11:07 AM
                                                          Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?none2014/11/15 06:35 AM
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                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/16 04:31 PM
                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/16 05:17 PM
                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDavid Kanter2014/11/16 09:39 PM
                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/16 11:24 PM
                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDoug S2014/11/17 10:07 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/17 12:40 PM
                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDoug S2014/11/17 02:00 PM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/17 03:02 PM
                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 03:25 PM
                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/17 05:00 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsenone2014/11/18 12:59 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/18 11:18 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAlberto2014/11/19 02:55 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsegallier22014/11/18 01:55 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/19 10:22 AM
                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/19 10:31 AM
                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/20 09:33 AM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 10:14 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 11:30 AM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 12:10 PM
                                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/20 12:23 PM
                                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 10:59 PM
                                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 10:45 PM
                                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/23 11:24 AM
                                                                                              What I hope is only a slight tangentTerry A Gray2014/11/23 03:42 PM
                                                                                              VAX could of made it...Jouni Osmala2014/11/24 07:46 AM
                                                                                                VAX could HAVE made it...gallier22014/11/24 08:26 AM
                                                                                                John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Mark Roulo2014/11/24 04:17 PM
                                                                                                  John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Mark Rouo2014/11/24 04:21 PM
                                                                                                  John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Linus Torvalds2014/11/24 06:17 PM
                                                                                                    Can you survive waiting for enough resources to build a fast VAX?Mark Roulo2014/11/24 06:42 PM
                                                                                                      Can you survive waiting for enough resources to build a fast VAX?Michael S2014/11/25 02:08 AM
                                                                                                      Can you survive waiting for enough resources to build a fast VAX?Yuhong Bao2014/11/25 10:12 PM
                                                                                                        Can you survive waiting for enough resources to build a fast VAX?Michael S2014/11/26 09:02 AM
                                                                                                    Another bump in complexity...David Kanter2014/11/25 11:02 AM
                                                                                                      Another bump in complexity...Peter Lund2014/11/27 12:51 PM
                                                                                                    John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Ricardo B2014/11/25 04:34 PM
                                                                                                      John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Peter Lund2014/11/27 12:48 PM
                                                                                                        John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Peter Lund2014/11/27 12:56 PM
                                                                                                        John Mashey has a comp.arch post that is relevant (maybe)Ricardo B2014/11/27 04:04 PM
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                                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseRonald Maas2014/11/24 07:13 PM
                                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horserwessel2014/11/24 11:48 PM
                                                                                                  There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePeter Lund2014/11/27 01:10 PM
                                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horserwessel2014/11/28 01:52 AM
                                                                                                    68k line decoding and opcodesBrett2014/11/28 10:42 AM
                                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/28 04:42 PM
                                                                                                      Yet another form of "worse is better" ? (NT)Michael S2014/11/29 12:12 PM
                                                                                                        Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/11/30 07:23 PM
                                                                                                          Yet another form of "worse is better" ?dmcq2014/12/01 02:08 AM
                                                                                                            Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Jouni Osmala2014/12/01 11:19 PM
                                                                                                              Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Patrick Chase2014/12/02 01:54 PM
                                                                                                                Yet another form of "worse is better" ?Stunk2014/12/03 01:45 PM
                                                                                                Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationJouni Osmala2014/11/25 04:40 AM
                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationPeter Lund2014/11/27 01:13 PM
                                                                                                  Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationRonald Maas2014/11/29 09:58 AM
                                                                                                    Make RISCY case fast CISCY case slow implementationJouni Osmala2014/11/30 03:08 AM
                                                                                                There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePeter Lund2014/11/27 01:03 PM
                                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/20 11:13 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 11:34 AM
                                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/20 10:39 PM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseAaron Spink2014/11/21 03:30 AM
                                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsePatrick Chase2014/11/21 10:33 AM
                                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMichael S2014/11/21 03:49 AM
                                                                                          GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopPaul A. Clayton2014/11/21 05:29 AM
                                                                                            GPRs did rotate, renaming not in execute critical loopLinus Torvalds2014/11/21 10:14 AM
                                                                                Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Mark Roulo2014/11/19 11:17 AM
                                                                                  Information on Intel pre-Itanium architecture effort?Kira2014/11/20 07:35 AM
                                                                              There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDuane2014/11/19 11:57 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseMaynard Handley2014/11/17 04:14 PM
                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseDoug S2014/11/17 10:52 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsecoppice2014/11/17 08:11 PM
                                                                    There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 07:20 AM
                                                                      There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/17 05:38 PM
                                                                        There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/17 08:10 PM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseNo one2014/11/18 07:25 AM
                                                                          There he goes again on his favorite hobby horseLinus Torvalds2014/11/18 10:32 AM
                                                                            There he goes again on his favorite hobby horsesomeone2014/11/18 11:39 AM
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                                                                Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Patrick Chase2014/11/15 05:45 PM
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                                                                    Why did Netburst seem like "crap"?Patrick Chase2014/11/16 07:55 PM
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                                                        How many CPU cores?Michael S2014/11/13 02:07 AM
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                                                            immediate? (NT)Michael S2014/11/13 05:00 AM
                                                            How many CPU cores?Doug S2014/11/13 11:40 AM
                                                              How many CPU cores?Ricardo B2014/11/14 07:39 AM
                                                        How many CPU cores?Brett2014/11/13 10:19 PM
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                                                          1024 x 600 (NT)Michael S2014/12/08 03:04 PM
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                                                            How many CPU cores?Ronald Maas2014/12/08 11:57 PM
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                                                                  How many CPU cores?Maynard Handley2014/12/09 11:52 AM
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                                                                      How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/10 07:06 AM
                                                                        How many CPU cores?anon2014/12/10 07:14 AM
                                                            How many CPU cores?Brett2014/12/09 01:28 AM
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                                                                    How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/11 03:16 AM
                                                            How many CPU cores?Michael S2014/12/10 02:10 AM
                                                              How many CPU cores?Gabriele Svelto2014/12/10 07:07 AM
                                                          How many CPU cores?Konrad Schwarz2014/12/10 09:23 AM
                                      The x86 core is Zenjuanrga2014/11/09 06:44 AM
                                        The x86 core is Zendmcq2014/11/16 05:09 AM
                              But can it beat an optimized OoO?Ken H2014/11/02 09:54 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Michael S2014/11/03 12:29 AM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Heikki Kultala2014/11/04 05:01 AM
                                  Bulldozer design 'stupidity'Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 09:16 AM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'juanrga2014/11/04 12:14 PM
                                    Bulldozer design 'stupidity'h2014/11/04 01:14 PM
                                      Bulldozer module as drop-in macro?Paul A. Clayton2014/11/04 01:26 PM
                                      Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Heikki Kultala2014/11/16 11:12 PM
                                        Bulldozer L2 latency(re: Bulldozer design 'stupidity')Y2014/11/18 10:06 AM
                                  But can it beat an optimized OoO?juanrga2014/11/04 12:18 PM
                                But can it beat an optimized OoO?Exophase2014/11/09 08:01 PM
                      Soft Machines Inventionsook2014/10/29 09:20 AM
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    Soft MachinesMaynard Handley2014/10/23 02:29 PM
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          How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?mpx2014/10/25 04:37 AM
            How well does Soft Machines do on ARM/x86?none2014/10/25 02:15 PM
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          Soft MachinesPatrick Chase2014/10/28 10:59 AM
    Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:48 PM
      SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesex-apple2014/10/23 05:17 PM
        SemiAccurate on Soft MachinesBrendan2014/10/24 12:49 AM
        SemiAccurate on Soft Machinesdmcq2014/10/24 03:55 AM
        Are they on 28 nm?Kevin G2014/10/26 04:23 PM
          Are they on 28 nm?ex-apple2014/10/26 04:47 PM
      Soft Machinessomeone2014/10/24 08:53 AM
    pipeline lengthHeikki Kultala2014/10/24 12:50 AM
  Soft MachinesKira2014/10/23 02:31 PM
  Soft Machinesjust some guy2014/10/24 04:50 AM
    Soft MachinesMr. Camel2014/10/24 10:16 AM
  Soft Machines investorsMichael S2014/10/25 11:06 AM
    Why? (NT)Megol2014/10/25 12:46 PM
    Soft Machines investor backstoryex-apple2014/10/28 09:30 PM
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