Moore's law left other levers partially tapped

By: someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com), April 19, 2017 6:31 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on April 19, 2017 1:20 am wrote:
> The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now.
> Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?
>
> I can try to infer a few. The hardware industry will switch to a model yielding 20%+ improvements
> per year on various metrics to model yielding a mere 2% per year (ballpark figures, of course).

I think this is too pessimistic.

Even if you froze process development/improvement totally the industry could probably
coast with >2% average annual improvement from design optimisation, circuit improvements,
better understanding product usage, manufacturability headroom etc for at least a decade.
When you are on a product development treadmill tied to process shrinks an awful lot of
potential is left on the cutting room floor so to speak to meet schedule.

In practice, in such a world product improvements would be lumpier than 2% and much less
frequent than annual because no one will burn mask set and silicon verification costs
every year for just 2%.

Of course processes will continue to improve, just not as fast and in the same ways as
in the past. Less frequent process changes means longer time for designers to fully use
the potential of each process. I think we clearly see that with Intel's 14 nm.
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