Moore's law left other levers partially tapped

By: someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com), April 20, 2017 9:53 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Mitch Hayenga (no.delete@this.thanks.com) on April 20, 2017 9:03 pm wrote:
> someone (someone.delete@this.somewhere.com) on April 19, 2017 6:31 am wrote:
> > Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on April 19, 2017 1:20 am wrote:
> > > The end of Moore's law seems very likely in the 5 to 15 years timeframe now.
> > > Are there any resources studying the macro-economic consequences thereof?
> > >
> > > I can try to infer a few. The hardware industry will switch to a model yielding 20%+ improvements
> > > per year on various metrics to model yielding a mere 2% per year (ballpark figures, of course).
> >
> > I think this is too pessimistic.
> >
> > Even if you froze process development/improvement totally the industry could probably
> > coast with >2% average annual improvement from design optimisation, circuit improvements,
> > better understanding product usage, manufacturability headroom etc for at least a decade.
> > When you are on a product development treadmill tied to process shrinks an awful lot of
> > potential is left on the cutting room floor so to speak to meet schedule.
> >
> > In practice, in such a world product improvements would be lumpier than 2% and much less
> > frequent than annual because no one will burn mask set and silicon verification costs
> > every year for just 2%.
> >
> > Of course processes will continue to improve, just not as fast and in the same ways as
> > in the past. Less frequent process changes means longer time for designers to fully use
> > the potential of each process. I think we clearly see that with Intel's 14 nm.
>
>
> Eh, performance gains have been pretty paltry even with some scaling. Recently I made this
> graph mining data from spec.org. I took the highest SPECINT score (not rate) for each calendar
> year since the Pentium Pro. Converted between SPEC 95/2000/2006 by using a conversion ratio
> (assumed highest SPEC2000 score in 2006 == highest SPEC2k6 score in 2006).
>
> SPECINT Performance Scaling
>
> Even with scaling, we've only been getting 5%/yr on SPECINT for the last 7 years. The previous 35%/yr
> fits nicely with the old rule of thumb that performance doubled every 2 years (rule of 72).

Why don't you plot MPU socket power growth alongside SPECINT growth.

I suspect the break point of slope in the latter corresponds well with the
inflection of the former. :-)

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TopicPosted ByDate
Macro-economic consequences of Moore's law?Foo_2017/04/19 01:20 AM
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        Moore's law left other levers partially tappedsomeone2017/04/19 12:29 PM
          Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMichael S2017/04/19 01:34 PM
    Moore's law left other levers partially tappedMitch Hayenga2017/04/20 09:03 PM
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