By: Simon Farnsworth (simon.delete@this.farnz.org.uk), October 12, 2018 1:19 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
anon (anon.delete@this.anon.com) on October 11, 2018 3:49 pm wrote:
> AM (myname4rwt.delete@this.jee-male.com) on October 11, 2018 11:02 am wrote:
> > Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on October 11, 2018 10:22 am wrote:
> > > AM (myname4rwt.delete@this.jee-male.com) on October 11, 2018 9:15 am wrote:
> > > > And considering Cloudflare's well-known stance wrt ARM vs x86 (see e.g. https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/design/cloudflare-bets-arm-servers-it-expands-its-data-center-network)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I suspect -- assuming Cloudflare folks are negotiation-smart -- they got these rejects not just for
> > > > free, but for a hefty subzero price, part of their deal being this blog post mentioning they're upgrading
> > > > their fleet to an off-roadmap/custom Intel CPU "offering considerable value in performance per watt".
> > >
> > > Why would Intel pay to advertise a CPU model that they don't want to sell?
> >
> > Not to advertise a "CPU model", but for Cloudflare staying with
> > Intel -- their ARM intentions are well-known (link above).
> >
> > > > With Centriq, ThunderX2, and finally Ampere eMAG servers available (https://insidehpc.com/2018/10/ampere-augments-arm-servers-new-developer-platform/),
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I guess the value of such PR project targeted at various business execs is well worth
> > > > selling rejects at negative price to prevent someone size of Cloudflare switching to
> > > > ARM.
> > >
> > > There are not many companies "size of Cloudflare" (in # of servers) around the world, I think.
> > > And I doubt those companies make CPU architecture decisions by reading blog posts.
> >
> > Nothing more than sloppy wording on my part -- companies who consider, or are forced to consider,
> > power efficiency and computer density are surely not limited to size of Cloudflare.
>
> They're all already looking at ARM, AMD, some even POWER. They all have a strong interest to make non-Intel look
> good on their workloads even if they don't switch, to negotiate with Intel. PR has nothing to do with it.
>
And, since we're looking at figures, the important figure of merit is whether the ARM server chip vendors are going to make enough money to sustain the business in the medium term. The fact that Qualcomm has scaled down its server division is a bad sign in this regard, as is the dropping out of other players. Is this chip really good enough to survive anything AMD and Intel are going to do in the next 5 years?
Fundamentally, if you're moving to a new ISA to get competitive chips, you want a strong chance that there will be competitive products out there with the new ISA going forward. That means either a supplier that's showing an awareness that they could be waiting years for a return on investment and need to just keep going, or enough of a market that even if one supplier drops out, another will step in to reap the profits.
Right now, x86 has both of those - Intel provides the first, and the market for x86 CPUs allows AMD to provide the second. ARM nearly had the second with Cavium and Qualcomm both in it, and until Qualcomm downscaled their server team, they had the first, too.
> AM (myname4rwt.delete@this.jee-male.com) on October 11, 2018 11:02 am wrote:
> > Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on October 11, 2018 10:22 am wrote:
> > > AM (myname4rwt.delete@this.jee-male.com) on October 11, 2018 9:15 am wrote:
> > > > And considering Cloudflare's well-known stance wrt ARM vs x86 (see e.g. https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/design/cloudflare-bets-arm-servers-it-expands-its-data-center-network)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I suspect -- assuming Cloudflare folks are negotiation-smart -- they got these rejects not just for
> > > > free, but for a hefty subzero price, part of their deal being this blog post mentioning they're upgrading
> > > > their fleet to an off-roadmap/custom Intel CPU "offering considerable value in performance per watt".
> > >
> > > Why would Intel pay to advertise a CPU model that they don't want to sell?
> >
> > Not to advertise a "CPU model", but for Cloudflare staying with
> > Intel -- their ARM intentions are well-known (link above).
> >
> > > > With Centriq, ThunderX2, and finally Ampere eMAG servers available (https://insidehpc.com/2018/10/ampere-augments-arm-servers-new-developer-platform/),
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I guess the value of such PR project targeted at various business execs is well worth
> > > > selling rejects at negative price to prevent someone size of Cloudflare switching to
> > > > ARM.
> > >
> > > There are not many companies "size of Cloudflare" (in # of servers) around the world, I think.
> > > And I doubt those companies make CPU architecture decisions by reading blog posts.
> >
> > Nothing more than sloppy wording on my part -- companies who consider, or are forced to consider,
> > power efficiency and computer density are surely not limited to size of Cloudflare.
>
> They're all already looking at ARM, AMD, some even POWER. They all have a strong interest to make non-Intel look
> good on their workloads even if they don't switch, to negotiate with Intel. PR has nothing to do with it.
>
And, since we're looking at figures, the important figure of merit is whether the ARM server chip vendors are going to make enough money to sustain the business in the medium term. The fact that Qualcomm has scaled down its server division is a bad sign in this regard, as is the dropping out of other players. Is this chip really good enough to survive anything AMD and Intel are going to do in the next 5 years?
Fundamentally, if you're moving to a new ISA to get competitive chips, you want a strong chance that there will be competitive products out there with the new ISA going forward. That means either a supplier that's showing an awareness that they could be waiting years for a return on investment and need to just keep going, or enough of a market that even if one supplier drops out, another will step in to reap the profits.
Right now, x86 has both of those - Intel provides the first, and the market for x86 CPUs allows AMD to provide the second. ARM nearly had the second with Cavium and Qualcomm both in it, and until Qualcomm downscaled their server team, they had the first, too.
