AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoC

By: Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org), November 10, 2018 7:46 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on November 10, 2018 2:43 am wrote:
> Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on November 9, 2018 7:23 pm wrote:
> > Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on November 9, 2018 11:15 am wrote:
> > > Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on November 8, 2018 2:48 pm wrote:
> > > > Of course this assumes (and I say this without proof because I'm not interested in, yet again, arguing the
> > > > subject, simply pointing out that the fact that there are many loud voices does not make something true or
> > > > universally believed) that the "PC" and the "tablet" are
> > > > and will remain different devices, because of human
> > > > factors; and that most people will ultimately use both because neither is the best at everything.
> > >
> > >
> > > I agree they will remain separate devices, but some tasks that formerly couldn't
> > > be done on a tablet will be, so over time tablets will gain utility while PCs will
> > > have an ever shortening list of "things that can only be done on a PC".
> > >
> > > I assume when you say "most people will ultimately use both" you mean different people, right? I think
> > > most make a choice - if almost everything they do is fine on a tablet, and there are a few things that
> > > are a pain on the tablet but can be done they'll suffer through those few things rather than get a
> > > PC in addition to the tablet for them. Likewise, people who need a PC for most everything and have
> > > a few things where a tablet would be better aren't likely to buy a tablet, they'll suffer through those
> > > few things that are more inconvenient on a PC. There are of course some who fall in the middle where
> > > it makes too much sense to own and regularly use both, but IMHO these are the outliers.
> > >
> > > Now if you look at it in isolation, since the tablet market has existed less than a decade (I consider
> > > the iPad intro 'year 0' for tablets, the ones that came before were never remotely popular) and PCs these
> > > days are useful well beyond a decade barring hardware failure, most people with tablets also have PCs.
> > > But thinking of several tablet heavy users I know, they have PCs dating from before they bought their first
> > > tablet, but the question is: will they ever replace their PC? I think the answer is probably no.
> >
> > No, I mean THE SAME people will use both. Are you willing to concede that most people
> > will own and use BOTH a smartWatch and a smartPhone, each optimized for different interactions?
> > (Admittedly right now that looks like more of an Apple-specific claim, but one day Android
> > will surface smartWatches that are more than a minority taste.)
>
>
> Willing to concede that MOST people will own and use both a smartwatch and smartphone? Hell no, a smartwatch has
> extremely limited application today. Apple isn't exactly setting the world on fire with Watch sales, it only looks
> like a success when you compare it to Android smartwatches. Do even 5% of iPhone owners own a Watch?

Apple watch sales are following pretty much exactly the same trajectory as iPhone sales. It was only with the iPhone4 that iPhone broke out from "weird Apple specialty" to critics' darling, and only with the 4S that the public caught up to that.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/

Watch numbers are guesses, but Apple (pre aWatch4) was selling about 1.25 million a month, which puts them at about the sales range of iPhone's second year. My guess is that Apple's not worried, they expect the 4 to be the breakout product -- you can see that in their willingness to raise the price for this year's model rather than keep that flat.
Best guess is that cumulative sales since introduction are about 60 million.
(By comparison, about 2 billion iPhones have been sold, but some of those are now dead, and some have secondary roles as storing music in a car, or whatever. There are perhaps 750 "active" iPhone users. So maybe 8% of users.

Difference is, you think that number will stay 8% forever. I think it will grow. Change takes time. Why the difference? Because you think convenience is an unimportant luxury that few care about, whereas I think everyone wants convenience. The growth will happen the same way as iPhones.
- People like me will buy a new watch every two years or so, and the older one will trickle down to a friend or family member --- who will discover they actually like it enough that, two years later, they buy the new model. (I've seen this in my own family.)
- Apple's usual trickle down pricing will allow people who are curious to get in on the action at a lower price point --- but again it takes time to ramp up to that.

aWatch0 was unbearably slow --- required real dedication or a real use case.
1/2 (first dual core model) was still horribly slow
3 (last year's model) is fast enough not to suck, but slow enough that it stutters and makes you wait
4 is fast enough to feel fluid -- but still not at the perfect fluidity of iPhone XS.

What does this mean? First it means that aWatch 0 was always going to be very limited in sales (and even to some extent 1/2 and 3.) But even more important it means that even today, the only real watch tiers are
4 at $400 min and
3 at $280 min. The tech was not good enough for it to make sense for Apple to keep selling the 2 at a lower $180 min tier. That may change next year with three tiers, and that third tier opens up a lot more casual experimental buying.

Or to put it another way, to the extent that people's phone cycles are growing longer (something that seems to be stretching from two to three years as more people become happy with their phone and start to learn just how lousy a deal those "rent a phone/ upgrade your phone on us" telco deals are) ever more people are in a position to give their "phone" experience a boost by buying a smartwatch after two years rather than buying a new phone.
I don't think this channel has really taken off yet, in part because telcos are idiots who can't even see the recent past, let alone the obvious future; in part because they still haven't got their act together regarding reasonable eSIM pricing or even support.
But at some point MVNOs will support eSIMs and so the pricing issues will come down; and I expect someone in the retail chain (perhaps Apple, perhaps someone like Best Buy) to start making precisely this pitch.


> The enemy of increased (or even maintained) PC sales is ALSO the smartphone, but not for the same reason. It
> is because of people whose first interactions with a computer were with a smartphone - people born this century,
> or people in the third world who never owned a PC but now own a smartphone. They've grown up with a totally different
> sense of what a computer is for and what it can do. Sure, most will later be exposed to a PC and realize they
> can do more with it, but it'll always be a tool they reach for ONLY if they simply cannot make it work on a smartphone
> or tablet. Those of us who grew up with PCs might look at some of the things they do like we'd look at someone
> using a pipe wrench to hammer a nail, but they've gotten used to using a pipe wrench that way and not only do
> it far better than we ever could, they might even do better with it than they would if you handed them a hammer.
> You know, like when we watch a 15 year old type 100 wpm on a smartphone keyboard...

Obviously we both cannot "prove" our expectations, we'll just see what happens.
However I am EXCEEDINGLY dubious of these constant claims about how 15 year olds use technology. These claims are bullshit to the extent that they reflect the
- PUBLICLY VISIBLE part of
- 15 YEAR OLD
life.
Are those 15 year writing term papers on their phones? Will they be doing their calculus assignments on their phones in five years?
The chattering classes only see 15 year olds using Facebook (or Grinder, or Ashley Madison, or whatever it is that 15 year olds use) in public and extrapolate from that in a way that makes zero sense. They don't see those kids writing term papers, because that is not something people do in public. Neither do they see that those kids in five years will be living 20 year old lives with 20 year old concerns, and then likewise five years later.
That was the point of my chainsaw analogy.
< Previous Post in ThreadNext Post in Thread >
TopicPosted ByDate
AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCGian-Carlo Pascutto2018/11/07 01:29 AM
  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCFoo_2018/11/07 03:11 AM
    AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCAndrei2018/11/07 04:47 AM
      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCGian-Carlo Pascutto2018/11/07 06:18 AM
        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCAndrei2018/11/07 07:02 AM
      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/07 08:16 AM
        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/07 01:34 PM
          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/07 02:05 PM
        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDavid Hess2018/11/09 07:43 AM
          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/09 09:02 AM
            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDavid Hess2018/11/09 03:31 PM
      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCdmcq2018/11/07 08:46 AM
        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCnone2018/11/07 09:24 AM
          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCWilco2018/11/07 02:47 PM
            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCdmcq2018/11/07 03:02 PM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCWilco2018/11/07 04:56 PM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCAndrei2018/11/08 01:20 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/07 05:20 PM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCnone2018/11/07 10:12 PM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCnone2018/11/07 10:15 PM
          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCBeastian2018/11/08 08:10 AM
            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/08 08:22 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCBeastian2018/11/08 08:32 AM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCBeastian2018/11/08 08:36 AM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCAndrei2018/11/09 02:06 AM
                    AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCpassing rando2018/11/09 10:10 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCGian-Carlo Pascutto2018/11/08 08:58 AM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/08 11:03 AM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCGian-Carlo Pascutto2018/11/08 12:29 PM
                    AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/08 03:39 PM
                      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCWilco2018/11/08 04:12 PM
            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/08 10:25 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/08 11:18 AM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/08 03:00 PM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/08 03:48 PM
                    AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/09 12:15 PM
                      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/09 08:23 PM
                        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/10 03:43 AM
                          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/10 07:46 AM
                            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCJukka Larja2018/11/10 08:41 AM
                              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/10 09:25 AM
                                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCJukka Larja2018/11/10 12:54 PM
                                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/10 02:17 PM
                                    AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCJukka Larja2018/11/11 12:24 AM
                          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCBrett2018/11/10 01:24 PM
                        AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCJukka Larja2018/11/10 04:12 AM
                          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCdmcq2018/11/10 06:21 AM
                          AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMichael S2018/11/10 05:33 PM
                            AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCAnon2018/11/10 08:52 PM
                              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCJukka Larja2018/11/10 11:56 PM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDavid Hess2018/11/09 09:08 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCBeastian2018/11/08 06:53 PM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCMaynard Handley2018/11/09 05:12 AM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCdmcq2018/11/09 05:26 AM
                  AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/09 12:06 PM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCdmcq2018/11/09 05:15 AM
              AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCFoo_2018/11/09 01:16 PM
                AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDoug S2018/11/09 01:36 PM
      AnandTech SPEC2006 scores for ARM SoCDavid Hess2018/11/09 06:27 AM
Reply to this Topic
Name:
Email:
Topic:
Body: No Text
How do you spell purple?