Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcome

By: Jan Olšan (olsan.delete.delete@this.this.mf.cz), January 4, 2019 1:58 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on January 4, 2019 11:39 am wrote:
> In an alternate reality, where Itanium was a nice clean 64 bit RISC and Intel pursued the PPro -> P2/P3
> -> Core path directly without the disastrous P4 detour that empowered AMD, we'd probably all be using that
> nice clean 64 bit ISA instead of x86 today. AMD wouldn't have had the market power to induce Microsoft
> to support their 64 bit ISA, and even if they did Intel could refuse to adopt it and push their clean RISC
> 64 bit ISA as their solution. Their fab superiority would have guaranteed it performed much better than
> AMD's 64 bit x86, which would have been relegated to supporting an ever shrinking legacy niche.
>

I don't think so. I think you underestimate the AMD of pre 2006 if you think K7 and K8 were only success because of P4. After all, not all Pentium 4 was terrible, Northwood worked well enough.
More importantly, your scenario would have the Intel fluffyRISC fight the same compatibility obstacle. As long as Intel wouldn't have made its own x86-64, Microsoft/Windows ecosystem would still form a huge demand for one. This is the crucial element there and something no lucky concidence that would make fluffyRISC an absolutely magical wonder could ever suppress. If Intel didn't provide that, it would still have cased the opportunity to pass to AMD and we would get AMD64 - that Intel would then be forced to adopt - just the same as it has happened in actual history.

If Intel has made AMD64 themselves, then the world (AMD included) peacefully transfers to that instead of AMD64 and fluffyRISC again stays a niche. And eventually fluffyRISC falls behind and gets obsolete because it won't have the competetive pressure that has kept x86 getting better and better.

> Not sure that world would be all that different in 2019 though. The x86 penalty is minimal in today's
> world of billion transistor CPUs, so performance of our PCs with Intel's clean 64 RISC would probably
> be pretty similar. Intel already had years of essentially monopoly pricing due to AMD's total inability
> to compete with them until recently, so we'd be paying about the same amount. We'd still all be using
> ARMv8 on our most important computing devices that we carry in our pockets.
>

If Intel was monopoly source of fluffy RISC, you would get about the level of gradual improvements that Itanium saw. A competing architecture with multiple vendors would kill it after some time. Likely by now.
Only that would never be able to happen because the x86-64 was inevitable and it would always kill the fluffyRISC :)

Feel free to disagree with me but I believe the objective factors that would push us into "my" scenario are evident enough.
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TopicPosted ByDate
Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 01:55 PM
  Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 04:18 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:16 PM
      Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 07:34 PM
        Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:48 PM
          Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 09:06 PM
            Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 10:57 PM
              Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/31 12:42 AM
                Independent micro threadsBrett2019/01/01 07:02 PM
                  Independent micro threadsMichael S2019/01/02 02:01 AM
                    Independent micro threadsMaynard Handley2019/01/02 03:29 PM
              Independent micro threadsMontaray Jack2019/01/01 02:12 AM
  Independent micro threadsanon2018/12/30 04:34 PM
  Independent micro threadsPaul A. Clayton2018/12/30 05:15 PM
  Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/30 06:47 PM
    Independent micro threadsDomaldel2018/12/30 07:06 PM
      Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/30 07:26 PM
        Independent micro threadsDoug S2018/12/31 10:26 AM
          Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/31 09:32 PM
            Independent micro threadsDoug S2019/01/01 12:40 AM
              Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2019/01/01 11:41 AM
            Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:40 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:44 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:49 AM
                  Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:51 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Simon Farnsworth2019/01/01 06:05 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 08:01 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Maynard Handley2019/01/01 01:17 PM
                  Taking things to extremes.Domaldel2019/01/01 05:44 PM
                    Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsDomaldel2019/01/01 05:52 PM
                      Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsMontaray Jack2019/01/02 07:26 AM
                        Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsMontaray Jack2019/01/02 08:21 AM
                    Taking things to extremes.Maynard Handley2019/01/01 06:55 PM
                    Taking things to extremes.Kevin G2019/01/04 08:57 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")David Hess2019/01/01 11:36 AM
    Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 07:38 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:41 PM
  Independent micro threadsanon2018/12/30 08:20 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 08:51 PM
      Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 09:48 PM
        Mill and Independent micro threadsBrett2019/01/01 07:39 PM
          No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Heikki Kultala2019/01/02 12:29 AM
            No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Brett2019/01/02 01:15 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Heikki Kultala2019/01/02 02:22 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Brett2019/01/03 01:13 AM
                  "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termHeikki Kultala2019/01/03 03:48 AM
                    "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termBrett2019/01/03 04:35 AM
                      You lack parallelism than OoOE givesHeikki Kultala2019/01/03 07:38 AM
                        You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/04 02:41 AM
                          You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/04 04:10 PM
                            You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/05 08:29 PM
                              Mill speculates, more parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/05 08:31 PM
                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/06 05:04 AM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/06 05:53 AM
                                    Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 09:03 PM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationjuanrga2019/01/06 06:10 AM
                                    probably ~2 (NT)Michael S2019/01/06 06:51 AM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 01:18 PM
                                    Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/06 03:36 PM
                                      Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 08:47 PM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationJacob Marley2019/01/06 10:29 PM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/07 04:24 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/07 05:23 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:36 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/07 03:40 PM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:32 PM
                                            Mill is something you don't understandHeikki Kultala2019/01/08 04:19 AM
                                              Mill is something you don't understandMichael S2019/01/08 07:44 AM
                                                Itanium and static vs dynamicHeikki Kultala2019/01/09 03:14 AM
                                                  Itanium and static vs dynamicPaul A. Clayton2019/01/09 08:51 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:27 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 06:23 AM
                                      Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 06:24 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 06:52 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 08:36 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 09:20 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationjuanrga2019/01/07 10:22 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 01:16 PM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 09:46 PM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 01:56 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 03:39 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/08 03:52 AM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 10:10 PM
                                                  Wasted width not wasted work.Brett2019/01/09 11:44 AM
                                                    No such thing was declared. (NT)anon2019/01/09 03:41 PM
                                                    Very simple test for new uarch ideassomeone2019/01/10 07:03 AM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasdmcq2019/01/10 07:21 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasDoug S2019/01/10 10:01 AM
                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasDan Fay2019/01/10 01:13 PM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasanonymous22019/01/10 11:03 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasAlberto2019/01/10 11:32 AM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 03:03 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 04:31 AM
                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 05:51 AM
                                                            Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 05:53 AM
                                                              Very simple test for new uarch ideasdmcq2019/01/11 06:08 AM
                                                              Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 06:13 AM
                                                                Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 06:54 AM
                                                                  Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 07:32 AM
                                                                    Very simple test for new uarch ideasBrett2019/01/11 10:25 AM
                                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasMegol2019/01/12 06:29 AM
                                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasMichael S2019/01/12 09:21 AM
                                                                          Word salad AI fundamentaliy brokenBrett2019/01/12 01:59 PM
                                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasMegol2019/01/13 11:51 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 08:50 AM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/08 09:03 AM
                                                  Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 09:21 AM
                      "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termMichael S2019/01/03 07:57 AM
                        "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termBrett2019/01/04 03:29 AM
                  Calls are not needed for speculation for mill if there are no side effect,and dont help if there areHeikki Kultala2019/01/08 04:28 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/02 03:05 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Doug S2019/01/02 11:38 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.rwessel2019/01/02 05:53 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/02 08:56 PM
                    itanicBrett2019/01/03 12:41 AM
                      itanicanon2019/01/03 03:12 AM
                      itanicDavid Hess2019/01/03 08:06 AM
                    No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.rwessel2019/01/03 09:18 AM
                      No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/04 05:25 AM
                    Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomesomeone2019/01/04 07:45 AM
                      Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeDoug S2019/01/04 12:39 PM
                        Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeJan Olšan2019/01/04 01:58 PM
                          "fluffyRISC" has a namevvid2019/01/04 03:48 PM
                        Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeBrett2019/01/04 03:43 PM
                      Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeanonymou52019/01/04 12:41 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.David Hess2019/01/03 08:15 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Maynard Handley2019/01/03 12:24 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Maynard Handley2019/01/03 12:27 PM
                    No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.dmcq2019/01/04 01:59 AM
                  EPIC target marketsFoo_2019/01/04 06:29 AM
                    EPIC target marketsDoug S2019/01/04 12:42 PM
                      Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/04 12:57 PM
                        Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/04 02:59 PM
                          Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/04 04:25 PM
                            Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/04 05:18 PM
                              Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/05 12:47 AM
                                Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/05 02:06 PM
                                  Lack of future visiondmcq2019/01/05 02:22 PM
                                  Lack of future visionanon2019/01/05 03:01 PM
                                    Lack of future visionMichael S2019/01/05 04:18 PM
                                      Lack of future visionanon2019/01/05 06:14 PM
                                        Lack of future visionMichael S2019/01/06 02:01 AM
                                          Lack of future visionanon2019/01/06 03:23 AM
                                          Mitch Alsup's MY66000 uses IF-like predication (I think) (NT)Paul A. Clayton2019/01/06 04:54 PM
                                            ??? (NT)Michael S2019/01/07 05:25 AM
                                            88K ? (NT)anonymous22019/01/07 04:20 PM
                                          Modestly expanded response: MY66000 predicate shadowPaul A. Clayton2019/01/07 11:53 AM
                      Thanks for the correction (NT)Foo_2019/01/04 04:31 PM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.sdrc2019/01/04 07:36 AM
          Mill and Independent micro threadsMichael S2019/01/02 02:32 AM
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