Lack of future vision

By: Brett (ggtgp.delete@this.yahoo.com), January 4, 2019 2:59 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on January 4, 2019 11:57 am wrote:
> Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on January 4, 2019 11:42 am wrote:
> > Foo_ (foo.delete@this.nomail.com) on January 4, 2019 5:29 am wrote:
> > > Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on January 3, 2019 11:24 am wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Maybe it's the advantage of hindsight, but I think it's pretty clear just
> > > > how silly the EPIC assumptions were, the gap between what they were hoping
> > > > for, and reality, in a way that was never true for either EPIC or OoO.
> > >
> > > I think it's worth taking into account the economic context. I don't know what the numbers
> > > were, but the server market was certainly tiny by then, and many uses of HP-PA, especially
> > > the performance-critical ones, were probably in engineers' workstations.
> > >
> > > (yes, there were databases already; as I said I don't know how important they were for HP's bottom line)
> > >
> > > If the uses you have in mind are computationally-heavy, well-behaved engineering workloads
> > > such as CAD or technical simulations, then EPIC can start to make more sense.
> > >
> > > Of course, in retrospect it's a bad idea to choose an ISA that's not flexible and general-purpose
> > > enough. But this was also a time where it may have seemed easier to change ISAs and ask
> > > users to migrate ("if EPIC turns out bad enough, we can devise another ISA").
> >
> >
> > HP had a big PA-RISC line on the server side as well, and Oracle databases were one of the primary
> > applications run on them. Definitely important for HP's bottom line, so clearly HP's architects who
> > developed PA-RISC 3.0 which eventually became Itanium felt it would work quite well for that role.
>
>
> Incidentally, this is probably pretty common for major architectural shifts. The guys who developed PA-RISC
> 3.0 were clearly very smart, it wasn't willful blindness or other shortcomings that led them to an incorrect
> conclusion. It is just difficult to see whether something radically different will really work or not.
>
> We've got some radical ideas today - the "Mill" that keeps getting talked about here that I don't
> really follow too much sounds like it is at least as radical as Itanium was. We have armchair
> architects pushing it here just like there were 20-25 years ago with Itanium. There are undoubtedly
> some smart people behind the Mill concept, but they can't see whether it will REALLY work any
> more clearly than HP's PA-RISC team was able to see whether it would REALLY work.
>
> If you aren't going to make radical changes, the only alternative is to make small changes. That's probably
> why we don't see any new architectures appearing any more. What's the point of making a new architecture
> that's similar to say ARMv8 or Sparc but with small changes? You have to create whole new toolchains
> from scratch, instead of leveraging what's already there. The numbers just don't add up.

Apple created ARM64, which is only marginally better than PowerPC or Alpha, existing arches with tool chains.

Even I was able to find some significant improvements to RISC, Apples ARMNext will change things.

> This is why I discount the idea some people have that Apple will develop their own architecture to replace
> ARMv8 in their devices. The money they pay for licensing is beyond trivial compared to their overall revenue
> & profit, and their total costs of creating a new architecture would require many years to recover from licensing
> savings - if they even could be recovered once interest costs were included from the front loaded outlay.
> The only reason they'd want to replace it would be if they had a radical new architecture to try that they
> thought could be as big of an improvement as PA-RISC's and Mill's creators felt/feel they could be. I highly
> doubt they would be thinking that big, or would be willing to take such a big risk.

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TopicPosted ByDate
Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 01:55 PM
  Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 04:18 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:16 PM
      Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 07:34 PM
        Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:48 PM
          Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 09:06 PM
            Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 10:57 PM
              Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/31 12:42 AM
                Independent micro threadsBrett2019/01/01 07:02 PM
                  Independent micro threadsMichael S2019/01/02 02:01 AM
                    Independent micro threadsMaynard Handley2019/01/02 03:29 PM
              Independent micro threadsMontaray Jack2019/01/01 02:12 AM
  Independent micro threadsanon2018/12/30 04:34 PM
  Independent micro threadsPaul A. Clayton2018/12/30 05:15 PM
  Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/30 06:47 PM
    Independent micro threadsDomaldel2018/12/30 07:06 PM
      Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/30 07:26 PM
        Independent micro threadsDoug S2018/12/31 10:26 AM
          Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2018/12/31 09:32 PM
            Independent micro threadsDoug S2019/01/01 12:40 AM
              Independent micro threadsDavid Hess2019/01/01 11:41 AM
            Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:40 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:44 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:49 AM
                  Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 12:51 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Simon Farnsworth2019/01/01 06:05 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Domaldel2019/01/01 08:01 AM
                Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")Maynard Handley2019/01/01 01:17 PM
                  Taking things to extremes.Domaldel2019/01/01 05:44 PM
                    Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsDomaldel2019/01/01 05:52 PM
                      Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsMontaray Jack2019/01/02 07:26 AM
                        Yes, I know, the forum is named *Real* World Tech, but I'm thinking that perhapsMontaray Jack2019/01/02 08:21 AM
                    Taking things to extremes.Maynard Handley2019/01/01 06:55 PM
                    Taking things to extremes.Kevin G2019/01/04 08:57 AM
              Overcomming thermal limits of a high dencity 3D arcitecture (Formerly "Independent micro threads")David Hess2019/01/01 11:36 AM
    Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 07:38 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 07:41 PM
  Independent micro threadsanon2018/12/30 08:20 PM
    Independent micro threadsBrett2018/12/30 08:51 PM
      Independent micro threadsTravis Downs2018/12/30 09:48 PM
        Mill and Independent micro threadsBrett2019/01/01 07:39 PM
          No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Heikki Kultala2019/01/02 12:29 AM
            No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Brett2019/01/02 01:15 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Heikki Kultala2019/01/02 02:22 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Brett2019/01/03 01:13 AM
                  "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termHeikki Kultala2019/01/03 03:48 AM
                    "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termBrett2019/01/03 04:35 AM
                      You lack parallelism than OoOE givesHeikki Kultala2019/01/03 07:38 AM
                        You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/04 02:41 AM
                          You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/04 04:10 PM
                            You lack parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/05 08:29 PM
                              Mill speculates, more parallelism than OoOE givesBrett2019/01/05 08:31 PM
                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/06 05:04 AM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/06 05:53 AM
                                    Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 09:03 PM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationjuanrga2019/01/06 06:10 AM
                                    probably ~2 (NT)Michael S2019/01/06 06:51 AM
                                  Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 01:18 PM
                                    Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/06 03:36 PM
                                      Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/06 08:47 PM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationJacob Marley2019/01/06 10:29 PM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/07 04:24 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/07 05:23 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:36 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationBrett2019/01/07 03:40 PM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:32 PM
                                            Mill is something you don't understandHeikki Kultala2019/01/08 04:19 AM
                                              Mill is something you don't understandMichael S2019/01/08 07:44 AM
                                                Itanium and static vs dynamicHeikki Kultala2019/01/09 03:14 AM
                                                  Itanium and static vs dynamicPaul A. Clayton2019/01/09 08:51 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 05:27 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 06:23 AM
                                      Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 06:24 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 06:52 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 08:36 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/07 09:20 AM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationjuanrga2019/01/07 10:22 AM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 01:16 PM
                                        Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/07 09:46 PM
                                          Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 01:56 AM
                                            Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 03:39 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationMichael S2019/01/08 03:52 AM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 10:10 PM
                                                  Wasted width not wasted work.Brett2019/01/09 11:44 AM
                                                    No such thing was declared. (NT)anon2019/01/09 03:41 PM
                                                    Very simple test for new uarch ideassomeone2019/01/10 07:03 AM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasdmcq2019/01/10 07:21 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasDoug S2019/01/10 10:01 AM
                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasDan Fay2019/01/10 01:13 PM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasanonymous22019/01/10 11:03 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasAlberto2019/01/10 11:32 AM
                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 03:03 AM
                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 04:31 AM
                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 05:51 AM
                                                            Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 05:53 AM
                                                              Very simple test for new uarch ideasdmcq2019/01/11 06:08 AM
                                                              Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 06:13 AM
                                                                Very simple test for new uarch ideasFoo_2019/01/11 06:54 AM
                                                                  Very simple test for new uarch ideasEtienne2019/01/11 07:32 AM
                                                                    Very simple test for new uarch ideasBrett2019/01/11 10:25 AM
                                                                      Very simple test for new uarch ideasMegol2019/01/12 06:29 AM
                                                                        Very simple test for new uarch ideasMichael S2019/01/12 09:21 AM
                                                                          Word salad AI fundamentaliy brokenBrett2019/01/12 01:59 PM
                                                                          Very simple test for new uarch ideasMegol2019/01/13 11:51 AM
                                              Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 08:50 AM
                                                Mill *is* a speculationEric Bron2019/01/08 09:03 AM
                                                  Mill *is* a speculationanon2019/01/08 09:21 AM
                      "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termMichael S2019/01/03 07:57 AM
                        "Leaf branch" is not a commonly used termBrett2019/01/04 03:29 AM
                  Calls are not needed for speculation for mill if there are no side effect,and dont help if there areHeikki Kultala2019/01/08 04:28 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/02 03:05 AM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Doug S2019/01/02 11:38 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.rwessel2019/01/02 05:53 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/02 08:56 PM
                    itanicBrett2019/01/03 12:41 AM
                      itanicanon2019/01/03 03:12 AM
                      itanicDavid Hess2019/01/03 08:06 AM
                    No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.rwessel2019/01/03 09:18 AM
                      No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.anon2019/01/04 05:25 AM
                    Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomesomeone2019/01/04 07:45 AM
                      Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeDoug S2019/01/04 12:39 PM
                        Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeJan Olšan2019/01/04 01:58 PM
                          "fluffyRISC" has a namevvid2019/01/04 03:48 PM
                        Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeBrett2019/01/04 03:43 PM
                      Itanium could have been RISC or CISC - same outcomeanonymou52019/01/04 12:41 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.David Hess2019/01/03 08:15 AM
                No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Maynard Handley2019/01/03 12:24 PM
                  No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.Maynard Handley2019/01/03 12:27 PM
                    No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.dmcq2019/01/04 01:59 AM
                  EPIC target marketsFoo_2019/01/04 06:29 AM
                    EPIC target marketsDoug S2019/01/04 12:42 PM
                      Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/04 12:57 PM
                        Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/04 02:59 PM
                          Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/04 04:25 PM
                            Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/04 05:18 PM
                              Lack of future visionDoug S2019/01/05 12:47 AM
                                Lack of future visionBrett2019/01/05 02:06 PM
                                  Lack of future visiondmcq2019/01/05 02:22 PM
                                  Lack of future visionanon2019/01/05 03:01 PM
                                    Lack of future visionMichael S2019/01/05 04:18 PM
                                      Lack of future visionanon2019/01/05 06:14 PM
                                        Lack of future visionMichael S2019/01/06 02:01 AM
                                          Lack of future visionanon2019/01/06 03:23 AM
                                          Mitch Alsup's MY66000 uses IF-like predication (I think) (NT)Paul A. Clayton2019/01/06 04:54 PM
                                            ??? (NT)Michael S2019/01/07 05:25 AM
                                            88K ? (NT)anonymous22019/01/07 04:20 PM
                                          Modestly expanded response: MY66000 predicate shadowPaul A. Clayton2019/01/07 11:53 AM
                      Thanks for the correction (NT)Foo_2019/01/04 04:31 PM
              No. Mill does not get the hit because it does not get the benefit even when correctly predicted.sdrc2019/01/04 07:36 AM
          Mill and Independent micro threadsMichael S2019/01/02 02:32 AM
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