By: Aaron Spink (aaronspink.delete@this.notearthlink.net), April 18, 2019 9:05 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
anon (spam.delete.delete.delete@this.this.this.spam.com) on April 18, 2019 7:46 am wrote:
> See my answer to Doug S.
> It's not about the interface but what NAND and performance you want.
>
Except as I replied, it isn't. All 3D NAND has more than enough sequential performance with multiple chips to saturate x4 PCIe 4.0.
> At the very least we can agree that an 8 TB SSD like wumpus suggested
> would be insane. Unless the NAND prices crash that's 300$.
> 2 TB is definitely possible depending on what their performance goal is.
> 4 TB is debatable.
>
Not really, given 2-3 years from now, it should certainly be possible to get QLC at ~$20-25 per TB based on process trends. So you are looking at $160-200 for 8TB which is in the realm of reasonable. Esp at the high end.
> You have to think about the future as well. I'm pretty sure 2 TB has to happen. It's supposed
> to be an upgrade from the PS4 Pro so I'm not sure if they could even get away with 1 TB, but
> at the very least there must be a 2 TB option even if the basic model gets only 1 TB.
> Now where do you go from there? Do you bet everything on NAND getting cheaper and 6/8 TB becoming
> cheap enough? Or do you go hybrid right from the start and make it purely a matter of putting in
> a different HDD as before? That would also simplify manufacturing. Same board for all versions.
>
I think the SSD NAND will be on a card of some form factor. The primary question is do they go with a built in SSD controller and potentially limit themselves to a particular set of nand interfaces or do they just use PCIe X.0 and use M.2?
Going with SATA on top requires a SATA controller and board space for connector, etc. Honestly, I don't see it. I think they might support HDD but probably only via USB (and lets be honest, USB3 is more than enough for any HDD out there).
> See my answer to Doug S.
> It's not about the interface but what NAND and performance you want.
>
Except as I replied, it isn't. All 3D NAND has more than enough sequential performance with multiple chips to saturate x4 PCIe 4.0.
> At the very least we can agree that an 8 TB SSD like wumpus suggested
> would be insane. Unless the NAND prices crash that's 300$.
> 2 TB is definitely possible depending on what their performance goal is.
> 4 TB is debatable.
>
Not really, given 2-3 years from now, it should certainly be possible to get QLC at ~$20-25 per TB based on process trends. So you are looking at $160-200 for 8TB which is in the realm of reasonable. Esp at the high end.
> You have to think about the future as well. I'm pretty sure 2 TB has to happen. It's supposed
> to be an upgrade from the PS4 Pro so I'm not sure if they could even get away with 1 TB, but
> at the very least there must be a 2 TB option even if the basic model gets only 1 TB.
> Now where do you go from there? Do you bet everything on NAND getting cheaper and 6/8 TB becoming
> cheap enough? Or do you go hybrid right from the start and make it purely a matter of putting in
> a different HDD as before? That would also simplify manufacturing. Same board for all versions.
>
I think the SSD NAND will be on a card of some form factor. The primary question is do they go with a built in SSD controller and potentially limit themselves to a particular set of nand interfaces or do they just use PCIe X.0 and use M.2?
Going with SATA on top requires a SATA controller and board space for connector, etc. Honestly, I don't see it. I think they might support HDD but probably only via USB (and lets be honest, USB3 is more than enough for any HDD out there).