By: anon (spam.delete.delete.delete@this.this.this.spam.com), April 18, 2019 11:51 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Aaron Spink (aaronspink.delete@this.notearthlink.net) on April 18, 2019 9:05 am wrote:
> anon (spam.delete.delete.delete@this.this.this.spam.com) on April 18, 2019 7:46 am wrote:
> > See my answer to Doug S.
> > It's not about the interface but what NAND and performance you want.
> >
> Except as I replied, it isn't. All 3D NAND has more than enough sequential
> performance with multiple chips to saturate x4 PCIe 4.0.
>
See my answer to james. I'm not sure if >7000 MB/s with terrible random performance are actually useful.
On a sidenote how would the write endurance work out?
> > At the very least we can agree that an 8 TB SSD like wumpus suggested
> > would be insane. Unless the NAND prices crash that's 300$.
> > 2 TB is definitely possible depending on what their performance goal is.
> > 4 TB is debatable.
> >
> Not really, given 2-3 years from now, it should certainly be possible to get
> QLC at ~$20-25 per TB based on process trends. So you are looking at $160-200
> for 8TB which is in the realm of reasonable. Esp at the high end.
>
200$ just for the SSD in a 400$ console does not seem reasonable to me. What high end?
> > You have to think about the future as well. I'm pretty sure 2 TB has to happen. It's supposed
> > to be an upgrade from the PS4 Pro so I'm not sure if they could even get away with 1 TB, but
> > at the very least there must be a 2 TB option even if the basic model gets only 1 TB.
> > Now where do you go from there? Do you bet everything on NAND getting cheaper and 6/8 TB becoming
> > cheap enough? Or do you go hybrid right from the start and make it purely a matter of putting in
> > a different HDD as before? That would also simplify manufacturing. Same board for all versions.
> >
> I think the SSD NAND will be on a card of some form factor. The primary question
> is do they go with a built in SSD controller and potentially limit themselves to
> a particular set of nand interfaces or do they just use PCIe X.0 and use M.2?
>
They'll probably cheap out and go with the PCIe 4.0 x4 that AMD offers out of the box.
> Going with SATA on top requires a SATA controller and board space for connector,
> etc. Honestly, I don't see it. I think they might support HDD but probably only
> via USB (and lets be honest, USB3 is more than enough for any HDD out there).
>
Unless AMD redoes the I/O just to remove SATA to save 1 mm² it'll probably be on the SoC anyway. Maybe it's shared with the x4 NVMe again, maybe not.
> anon (spam.delete.delete.delete@this.this.this.spam.com) on April 18, 2019 7:46 am wrote:
> > See my answer to Doug S.
> > It's not about the interface but what NAND and performance you want.
> >
> Except as I replied, it isn't. All 3D NAND has more than enough sequential
> performance with multiple chips to saturate x4 PCIe 4.0.
>
See my answer to james. I'm not sure if >7000 MB/s with terrible random performance are actually useful.
On a sidenote how would the write endurance work out?
> > At the very least we can agree that an 8 TB SSD like wumpus suggested
> > would be insane. Unless the NAND prices crash that's 300$.
> > 2 TB is definitely possible depending on what their performance goal is.
> > 4 TB is debatable.
> >
> Not really, given 2-3 years from now, it should certainly be possible to get
> QLC at ~$20-25 per TB based on process trends. So you are looking at $160-200
> for 8TB which is in the realm of reasonable. Esp at the high end.
>
200$ just for the SSD in a 400$ console does not seem reasonable to me. What high end?
> > You have to think about the future as well. I'm pretty sure 2 TB has to happen. It's supposed
> > to be an upgrade from the PS4 Pro so I'm not sure if they could even get away with 1 TB, but
> > at the very least there must be a 2 TB option even if the basic model gets only 1 TB.
> > Now where do you go from there? Do you bet everything on NAND getting cheaper and 6/8 TB becoming
> > cheap enough? Or do you go hybrid right from the start and make it purely a matter of putting in
> > a different HDD as before? That would also simplify manufacturing. Same board for all versions.
> >
> I think the SSD NAND will be on a card of some form factor. The primary question
> is do they go with a built in SSD controller and potentially limit themselves to
> a particular set of nand interfaces or do they just use PCIe X.0 and use M.2?
>
They'll probably cheap out and go with the PCIe 4.0 x4 that AMD offers out of the box.
> Going with SATA on top requires a SATA controller and board space for connector,
> etc. Honestly, I don't see it. I think they might support HDD but probably only
> via USB (and lets be honest, USB3 is more than enough for any HDD out there).
>
Unless AMD redoes the I/O just to remove SATA to save 1 mm² it'll probably be on the SoC anyway. Maybe it's shared with the x4 NVMe again, maybe not.