Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStation

By: wumpus (lost.delete@this.in.a.cave), April 19, 2019 7:40 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Jukka Larja (roskakori2006.delete@this.gmail.com) on April 19, 2019 3:03 am wrote:
> wumpus (lost.delete@this.in.a.cave) on April 17, 2019 9:24 am wrote:
>
> > I'd go so far as to claim that as long as you have that 256-512
> > sufficiently high speed SSD (for loading assets
> > of recently played games), 8TB of spinning storage is *more*
> > "future proof" than 2TB of arbitrarily fast SSD.
> > On the other hand, plenty of PS5 buyers are too young to think ahead and 2TB of SSD might sell better.
>
> I don't see Sony going with cache SSD + internal HDD in any situation. They already mandate certain
> optimizations and division of assets so that user can start playing the game before it has been fully
> downloaded, copied, or installed to HDD (downloading or copying from BD and installation will continue
> in the background. Rules about how far the player must be able to progress after the initial smallish
> installation before more data is needed are vague, however). If they want, they can already throw out
> parts of the games but still keep them installed so that a user can launch any time they want.
>
> What I think they will do, will be to still support adding an external HDD. It probably can't be
> used to play games directly, but it can act as a download cache, so that once downloaded games
> won't need to be downloaded again. Mind you, very few gamers play several, hundred GB AAA games
> at the same time. Those few who will, may be sold a more expensive model with twice the SSD.
>
> I also don't much believe in 500 GB games, simply because that would require ten BD disks (or 5 UHD BD)
> and insane installation procedure (just think about maximum BD read speed). Couple of disks at most and
> maybe some high-resolution texture pack for people paying the monthly fee of PS+ or whatever.
>
> All considered, I don't see even 512 GB SSD (with support for USB 3 HDD) a problem for standard model
> on launch, if the price of NAND is too high for more. For most gamers it won't be much different from
> 1 TB model, at least initially. There will be few games available (not counting the PS4 games of course),
> most of them won't be 100 GB behemoths, and most of them won't interest the particular gamer.
>
> > - no idea if/how developers will optimize game layout after it becomes a maze of patches.
> > Presumably assets won't often be patched, but I've seen some disasters on more heavily
> > updated games (even before they could reasonably expect players to have SSDs).
>
> Developers can't presume that the game files are going to be in certain, non-fragmented order on
> hard drive. One of the requirements the games must pass is working acceptably on slow-speed HDD mode,
> which is ridiculously slow (and the "high speed" baseline is connected via USB-SATA bridge, so not
> exactly fast either). Most of the game data is made of large things like textures and models, and
> when you move from SD to HD to 4k, the things that grow are those already large things.
>
> If you have some inherently small stuff, like shaders, scripts, localizations (texts) or some metadata,
> you'll deal with them separately. SSD could make it possible to forgo that step, but since that would be
> catastrophic for anything HDD based (or even for bad SSDs), I can't see that happen any time soon.
>
> I'm pretty sure that PS4 FS (whatever it is) is a low-fragmentation one, though.
> There's no need to optimize for millions of files like on PCs, so why not?
>
> -JLarja

Top selling games for January 2019 (the latest a simple search shows):
[note that some are download size, other taken from https://www.gamesradar.com/biggest-ps4-install-size-games/ after patches and whatnot are loaded]

40G 1. Kingdom Hearts 3
20G 2. Resident Evil 2
76G 3. Grand Theft Auto 5
101G 4. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
43G 5. Madden NFL 19
40G 6. PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds
105G 7. Red Dead Redemption 2
40G 8. FIFA 19
tiny 9. Minecraft (searches returned world size)
40G 10. Battlefield V (install size. Battlefield IV premium ballooned to 75G)

So these are the size of the currently popular playstation HD games. Crank them to 4k and you will quickly fill a sub-TB hard drive. While I really don't expect them to be able to get away with rotating storage, expect Sony to need to ship a lot of QLC flash.
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Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationsleep2019/04/16 11:04 PM
  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDoug S2019/04/17 12:20 AM
  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAnon2019/04/17 01:18 AM
    Competing with streaming Anon2019/04/17 01:20 AM
      Competing with streaming David Hess2019/04/20 07:17 PM
        Competing with streaming Jukka Larja2019/04/20 09:23 PM
        Competing with streaming Anne O. Nymous2019/04/21 04:27 AM
        Competing with streaming Anne O. Nymous2019/04/21 04:28 AM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAndrew Clough2019/04/17 05:33 AM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/17 09:08 AM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAndrew Clough2019/04/17 10:21 AM
          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 07:29 PM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationblue2019/04/20 08:29 PM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/20 09:29 PM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationBlue2019/04/21 03:25 AM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/21 07:45 AM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationpgerassi2019/04/21 06:56 PM
                      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/21 09:18 PM
                        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationpgerassi2019/04/22 08:33 AM
                          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/22 09:54 AM
                            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationpgerassi2019/04/22 11:45 PM
                              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/23 07:36 AM
                                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/23 08:06 AM
                                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/23 11:32 AM
                                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/28 05:46 PM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanother-anon2019/04/17 11:10 AM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 07:23 PM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/20 09:32 PM
  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationNoSpammer2019/04/17 03:50 AM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/17 09:24 AM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/17 09:44 AM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDoug S2019/04/17 10:28 AM
          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 07:36 AM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 08:55 AM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 11:24 AM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationaaron spink2019/04/18 11:42 AM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 12:07 PM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 02:32 PM
                      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 03:32 PM
                        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 03:41 PM
                          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/19 01:53 AM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 08:14 PM
                      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/20 09:42 PM
                        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/28 05:52 PM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationPiedPiper2019/04/18 07:33 PM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/19 02:03 AM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/19 06:50 AM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationaaron spink2019/04/19 07:25 AM
                      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/19 08:40 AM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationjames2019/04/18 10:13 AM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 11:39 AM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationaaron spink2019/04/18 11:46 AM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 03:22 PM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 08:34 PM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/20 09:48 PM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDoug S2019/04/18 02:33 PM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationsleep2019/04/18 06:38 PM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 08:27 PM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationsleep2019/04/21 03:07 AM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/28 05:54 PM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/17 11:48 AM
          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 07:46 AM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 09:05 AM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 11:51 AM
                Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 02:50 PM
                  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 03:16 PM
                    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationAaron Spink2019/04/18 03:36 PM
                      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/19 01:57 AM
                        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/19 02:18 AM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/17 12:13 PM
          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationanon2019/04/18 08:07 AM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/19 03:03 AM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/19 07:40 AM
          Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/19 08:29 AM
            Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationwumpus2019/04/19 05:38 PM
              Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationSimon Farnsworth2019/04/20 02:02 AM
        Why are you assuming it will even have an optical drive?Doug S2019/04/19 10:53 AM
          Why are you assuming it will even have an optical drive?Jukka Larja2019/04/19 12:19 PM
            Why are you assuming it will even have an optical drive?David Hess2019/04/20 08:45 PM
          the source article...blue2019/04/20 05:50 AM
            the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/20 07:29 AM
              the source article...wumpus2019/04/20 08:48 AM
                the source article...aaron spink2019/04/20 08:51 AM
                  the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/20 11:47 AM
              the source article...Groo2019/04/20 09:36 AM
                the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/20 12:08 PM
                  the source article...Groo2019/04/20 12:37 PM
                    the source article...Doug S2019/04/21 12:11 AM
                      the source article...Doug S2019/04/21 12:33 AM
                      the source article...Blue2019/04/21 03:30 AM
                        the source article...Doug S2019/04/21 10:08 AM
                          the source article...blue2019/04/23 12:36 AM
                            the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/23 08:27 AM
                              the source article...Brett2019/04/23 11:22 AM
                                the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/23 11:43 AM
                              the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/23 11:55 AM
                                the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/24 01:15 PM
                                  the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/25 05:53 AM
                                    the source article...none2019/04/25 06:14 AM
                                      the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/25 11:32 AM
                                    the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/25 07:06 AM
                                      the source article...anon2019/04/25 09:00 AM
                                        the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/25 12:12 PM
                                          the source article...anon2019/04/26 11:27 AM
                                      the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/25 11:40 AM
                                        the source article...Aaron Spink2019/04/25 12:08 PM
                            the source article...Doug S2019/04/23 10:33 AM
                  the source article...David Hess2019/04/20 08:51 PM
                    the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/20 10:00 PM
                  the source article...gallier22019/04/24 12:01 AM
                    the source article...Jukka Larja2019/04/24 05:25 AM
                the source article...David Hess2019/04/20 08:49 PM
                  the source article...Groo2019/04/21 07:41 AM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 08:19 PM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJukka Larja2019/04/20 10:15 PM
  Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJose2019/04/17 10:00 PM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJose2019/04/18 03:33 AM
      Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationdmcq2019/04/18 05:30 AM
        Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationJose2019/04/18 10:41 PM
    Wired Exclusive: What to Expect From Sony's Next-Gen PlayStationDavid Hess2019/04/20 09:06 PM
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