the source article...

By: Jukka Larja (roskakori2006.delete@this.gmail.com), April 25, 2019 5:53 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Aaron Spink (aaronspink.delete@this.notearthlink.net) on April 24, 2019 1:15 pm wrote:
> Jukka Larja (roskakori2006.delete@this.gmail.com) on April 23, 2019 11:55 am wrote:
> > Although I mostly agree about UHD (too little too late), this dead Bluray format still
> > sells for several tens of millions per week in US. Of course, DVD sells even more.
> >
> BR has already peaked in sales vs DVD. Basically, BR is in long tail mode at this point. Yes it still sells,
> but it is a faction of the same titles on DVD and both are rapidly losing ground streamed movies.

Sure, I think the growth (for both) ended around 2013. Relatively speaking, BD still seems to grow against DVD, but absolute sales are dropping. However, I think it would be very stupid for a movie studio to stop selling their movies on DVD and BD today. Similarly I'm not nearly as sure as you seem to be that it makes sense to release a download only[*] console next year. But that's mostly just a question of timing. In few years time I'm sure optical drives will be (mostly) history.

[*] Still can get games on physical media if you take these unpopular and cumbersome steps.

> UHD is already dead. Support has been withdrawn at this point
> by pretty much all the major electronic manufactures.

What do you mean? New movies are released on UHD all the time. Are you suggesting that soon one can buy a DVD player but no longer an UHD player?

> > Although technically that may make perfect sense, I just
> > don't see it. People who have bad Internet connection
> > or who just prefer (or think they prefer) physical media for sentimental reasons will take a look at the
> > external drive and feel that the console isn't for them.
> >
> Well, that's going to be a small minority. Data already suggests that the sales
> volume has already inverted even on consoles against physical media.

We may have different estimate of the size of that minority, but maybe also magnitude of "minor". There are people who will simply buy a competing console or skip buying a new console altogether, if they either can't or feel that they can't get the games on disc (or flash) anymore. That's in addition to people who'd be happy to pay some more for model with optical drive (and perhaps never use it to install a single game), and skip based on that. If those groups are even 10 % of all customers, it seems pretty big hit to take.

> > And do you seriously believe someone is going
> > to publish games on disk for a console that doesn't include built-in optical drive in any configuration?
> > Even today, large percentage of games published for PS4 and Xbox One are download only.
> >
> No, but its besides the point. For people with bad download performance,
> they can easily make usb flash a viable data transfer route.

I guess you are suggesting something like download kiosks where one can bring her own USB stick and download the game there?

-JLarja
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