Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chips

By: Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org), April 19, 2019 2:53 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on April 19, 2019 2:48 pm wrote:
> Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on April 19, 2019 11:32 am wrote:
> > Details: based on
> > https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/18/apple-qualcomm-estimated-settlement-terms/
> >
> > (a) Apple now has what it didn't have before, a guaranteed IP agreement
> > with QC. This clears the way for Apple to build their own modems.
> >
> > (b) What was Apple paying before?
> > https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1334184#
> > Interim agreement had Apple paying $7.5 per phone. QC wanted $18/phone (and as a fraction
> > of the cost of the phone, so would rise as iPhones got more expensive, or if Apple put
> > modems in other devices. Wonder why laptops with built-in cellular are so rare...)
> >
> > So Apple pays slightly more per phone than they were paying before this all started,
> > a LOT less than QC wanted, and has the possibility of escaping from QC altogether
> > in three or four years if they can do the engineering necessary.
>
>
> I don't buy that UBS guy's figures. The $2 EPS gain for Qualcomm suggests about $2.4 billion
> a year at their current share count. If they assume Apple will ship 200 million phones once
> they've fully phased in Qualcomm chips across the line (which will take a few years) that equals
> $12/phone not the "$8 to $9" he said. Not sure how what sort of math he's using.
>
> However, Qualcomm earns money from Apple via two sources, the licensing AND the margin on the
> chips themselves. There is no way to establish what Apple is paying per phone in licensing fees
> without knowing how much Qualcomm makes per chip they sell to Apple, and that is something we
> will never know. But at a maximum of $12 all-in, there seems to be little room for Qualcomm
> to be making more than the $7.50 Apple was paying before, and it could well be less.
>
> Both companies might "win" depending on how the numbers work out. If previously Qualcomm was making $4.50
> on every chip they sold to Apple, then with the separate $7.50 licensing fee that comes to $12 and gives
> them their $2 EPS. However, if they now charge Apple more for the chips and make $10 each on them, while
> charging only $2 each in licensing then Apple can declare "victory" in paying less for the licensing
> - close to the $1.50/phone they wanted, while Qualcomm can claim "victory" in getting the same exact
> amount of money per phone out of Apple they were getting before this whole thing started.

I agree this is unclear. BUT obviously the IDEAL case for QC is to have the licensing fee as high as possible, because that revenue stream persists (unlike the modem sales stream) after/if Apple start making their own modem.
I'm guessing that consideration (plus who knows what other insight/insider knowledge) is what drove the claim (guess?) that the licensing fee is now ~$8..9.
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TopicPosted ByDate
Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/04/18 03:47 PM
  antitrust implications? (NT)anonymous22019/04/18 07:53 PM
    antitrust implications?Doug S2019/04/18 08:50 PM
      antitrust implications?Beastian2019/04/18 10:02 PM
  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/18 08:45 PM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsdmcq2019/04/18 10:05 PM
      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/18 10:28 PM
        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAdrian2019/04/18 11:48 PM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsdmcq2019/04/19 05:54 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAdrian2019/04/19 09:33 AM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsdmcq2019/04/19 10:54 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 11:03 AM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 07:38 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipssylt2019/04/19 09:28 AM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 10:03 AM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipssylt2019/04/19 11:08 PM
                  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/20 09:15 AM
                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 09:41 AM
                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipssylt2019/04/20 01:22 PM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/20 07:31 PM
                        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 09:41 PM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsGroo2019/04/21 06:50 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAdrian2019/04/19 09:45 AM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 10:27 AM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 11:09 AM
                  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 11:17 AM
                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 12:19 PM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsGroo2019/04/20 05:50 AM
                        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 09:49 AM
                          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/20 10:08 AM
                            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 11:18 PM
                              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 11:19 PM
        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/19 09:46 AM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 10:50 AM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/19 03:17 PM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/19 09:59 PM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsGroo2019/04/20 08:28 AM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/20 09:33 AM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 11:26 PM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/20 09:55 AM
      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAndreas2019/04/19 03:55 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAndrew Clough2019/04/19 05:19 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsGroo2019/04/19 06:44 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 10:49 AM
    Read this and realize what Apple doesGroo2019/04/19 03:27 PM
  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 10:32 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/04/19 11:15 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/19 01:48 PM
      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/19 02:53 PM
        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/19 10:05 PM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/20 09:49 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/20 11:07 PM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/05/15 06:51 AM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/05/15 10:16 AM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/15 11:21 AM
  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/04/25 10:37 AM
    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/25 11:43 AM
      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsdmcq2019/04/26 01:22 AM
        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/04/26 09:05 AM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/26 10:57 AM
            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsAnon2019/04/27 03:11 PM
              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/04/27 07:15 PM
                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/04/28 05:59 AM
                  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/05/02 11:01 AM
                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/02 02:58 PM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/02 03:27 PM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsanonymou52019/05/02 04:37 PM
                        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/03 12:35 AM
                          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/03 08:32 AM
                            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/03 12:32 PM
                              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/03 02:45 PM
                                Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsUmmmm...2019/05/03 03:35 PM
                                  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/03 03:56 PM
                                  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/03 08:10 PM
                                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/03 08:11 PM
                                    Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/03 09:12 PM
                                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/04 07:33 AM
                      Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDoug S2019/05/03 12:11 AM
                        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/05/06 08:09 AM
                          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/06 10:40 AM
                            Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsBeastian2019/05/06 12:16 PM
                              Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsMaynard Handley2019/05/06 03:15 PM
                        Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsSimon Farnsworth2019/05/07 04:23 AM
          Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsdmcq2019/04/26 11:52 AM
  Apple agrees to become Qualcomm's licensee and returns to their baseband chipsDummond D. Slow2019/05/02 08:25 AM
    So Qualcomm got less than 2/3 of what they wantedDoug S2019/05/02 09:35 AM
      So Qualcomm got less than 2/3 of what they wantedBeastian2019/05/02 10:43 AM
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