The next Apple chip

By: Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org), November 20, 2020 11:54 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on November 20, 2020 11:07 am wrote:
> Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on November 20, 2020 9:51 am wrote:
> > Doug S (foo.delete@this.bar.bar) on November 20, 2020 8:07 am wrote:
> > > Maynard Handley (name99.delete@this.name99.org) on November 19, 2020 8:22 pm wrote:
> > > > OK guys, M1 time is over. What's next?
> > > >
> > > > Something I just realized, and I think the timing works out beautifully:
> > > > TSMC started N5P testing/Risk production in 2Q2020.
> > > > Meaning that (and now that I think about it, it is so obvious!) the M1X will be on N5P!
> > > > THAT is what's determining its schedule.
> > > >
> > > > There is a precedent. Remember that the A10 came out in Sept
> > > > 2016, on 16nm. But the A10X came out in June 2017 on 10nm.
> > > >
> > > > This makes so much sense. It gives time Apple to improve some of the rushed bits of the M1, and gives
> > > > a free 5% speed boost (which isn't much, sure, but may mean that M1X clocks at, say 3.5GHz)
> > > > And gives Apple a second round of (totally justified!) "OMG,
> > > > Apple is king, everyone else is doomed" publicity,
> > > > say maybe in April or May, which should sustain them till the A15/iPhone next reveals in September.
> > > >
> > > > Well, six months or so to see if I'm right. tick tick tick
> > >
> >
> > Everybody is reading MUCH more into this that I meant.
> > The analogy is M1:M1X is A10:A10X
> > Not redesigning any part of the CPU and SoC (except maybe fix
> > a few errata that can be done easily and safely). JUST
> > - Physical Optimization
> > - Grow the parts that everyone expects to grow in an M1X (more cores, more GPU, more memory)
> > - pick up the wins expected from this (5% performance from N5P over N5, probably some slight
> > performance from POPT, so maybe enough to get you to 3.5GHz, maybe 3.4 in the same power envelope,
> > maybe 20% density boost from POPT and whatever slight density tweaks N5P gives you)
> >
> > No IPC changes, no A15 core, which will come with the iPhones.
>
>
> I'm not reading more than what you meant into it, I'm stating my own conclusion that if Apple
> really did rush or otherwise take it easy on A14 the only logical conclusion is because they've
> altered schedules to get the cores that will go into the A15 ready earlier in the year to use
> what you are calling M1X (but would probably be called M2-something if I'm right)

I don't understand your reasoning.
You agree that Apple found it valuable to create X versions of their SoCs for the higher end?
And that these SoCs were based on the base-line SoC, with only very specific modifications (like cache size, number of cores, number of GPU cores)?
And that on at least one occasion when the timing made sense, they delayed the release of such an X core to catch the upcoming TSMC process?

What in this chain of logic do you believe is flawed?
Of course Apple COULD delay the iMac and larger MBPs till the A15. Is that likely?
Of course Apple COULD have changed schedules so that the A15 is such a small design change that it ships six months after the A14. Is that likely?

Of course Apple COULD release the M1X on N5 rather than N5P? Is that likely? -- That's really the alternative hypothesis that makes sense, and it's not implausible. But I think the win from catching N5P is worth delaying the release of the M1X machines by a month or two if that's the price of doing so.
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TopicPosted ByDate
The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/19 08:22 PM
  The next Apple chipanon22020/11/19 08:59 PM
    The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/20 09:45 AM
  The next Apple chipAndrei F2020/11/20 12:47 AM
    The next Apple chipdmcq2020/11/20 04:37 AM
      The next Apple chipAndrei F2020/11/20 06:31 AM
        The next Apple chipdmcq2020/11/20 09:57 AM
    The next Apple chipRonald Maas2020/11/20 08:54 AM
      The next Apple chipAnon2020/11/20 11:30 AM
        The next Apple chipWes Felter2020/11/22 08:50 PM
    The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/20 09:46 AM
    The next Apple chipJan Vlietinck2020/11/21 05:14 AM
      The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/21 08:34 AM
  The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/20 08:07 AM
    The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/20 09:51 AM
      The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/20 11:07 AM
        The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/20 11:54 AM
          The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/20 01:34 PM
  The next Apple chipRichard S2020/11/20 05:38 PM
  The next Apple chipDavid Hess2020/11/20 06:35 PM
    The next Apple chipBrett2020/11/20 08:56 PM
      The next Apple chipJames2020/11/21 07:18 AM
        The next Apple chipBrett2020/11/21 07:38 AM
      The next Apple chipDavid Hess2020/11/21 07:17 PM
      The next Apple chipHoward Chu2020/11/22 01:52 PM
        The next Apple chipBrett2020/11/25 05:27 PM
    The next Apple chipNaNon2020/11/21 03:01 AM
      The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/21 10:30 AM
      The next Apple chipDavid Hess2020/11/21 07:43 PM
        The next Apple chipJukka Larja2020/11/21 08:16 PM
          The next Apple chipDavid Hess2020/11/21 08:47 PM
          The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/22 10:17 AM
            The next Apple chipJukka Larja2020/11/23 05:57 AM
        The next Apple chipMaynard Handley2020/11/22 10:12 AM
          The next Apple chipJukka Larja2020/11/23 06:13 AM
          The next Apple chipdmcq2020/11/23 08:18 AM
    The next Apple chipDoug S2020/11/21 08:53 AM
      The next Apple chipDavid Hess2020/11/21 07:40 PM
    The next Apple chipJacob Marley2020/11/21 11:40 AM
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