By: Moritz (better.delete@this.not.tell), September 22, 2021 6:40 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
For 10 months now, Nvidia GPUs (GTX16x0 Turing) have not been available on the market. Before that the GTX10x0 Pascal generation was
as long lived (2016-2019) as stable in price.
Going by the econ text book this situation is a glitch in the matrix.
Two things should have happened:
1. The prices should have gone up.
2. The production volume should have gone up.
Recently the first did happen. One can now buy a "Geforce GTX1660 SUPER" at a price above the introductory price two years ago.
In my mind the GTX1660 should not even be on the market anymore. Like many of you I am old enough to remember GPUs to be released every years-end on a new TSMC half node.
1999 220nm, 2000 180nm, 2001 150nm, 2002 130nm, 2003 110nm, 2004 90nm, 2005 80nm, 2006 65nm
The new reality, normal is that the same gets sold for 18 months, then they change it up a bit as the yield has gotten better
and now you can't even get that anymore?
I understand that Covid could not have been planed for and caused supply chain disturbance, but this is not disturbance but market and industry failure.
Looking at the (mm)² sold, I remember a consumer die to be 150(mm)² 20 years ago. Today a mid-range GPU is three times as big at 450(mm)². Could no one predict that it would take more of the same 300mm wafers to make the same number of three times bigger dies?
Because Nvidia is effectively a monopolist (No other product is sufficiently identical) they would set the price rather high and would not sell at maximum sourcable capacity. Even without Nvidia being pushy about production, they must be at a point where selling more would increase their profit.
as long lived (2016-2019) as stable in price.
Going by the econ text book this situation is a glitch in the matrix.
Two things should have happened:
1. The prices should have gone up.
2. The production volume should have gone up.
Recently the first did happen. One can now buy a "Geforce GTX1660 SUPER" at a price above the introductory price two years ago.
In my mind the GTX1660 should not even be on the market anymore. Like many of you I am old enough to remember GPUs to be released every years-end on a new TSMC half node.
1999 220nm, 2000 180nm, 2001 150nm, 2002 130nm, 2003 110nm, 2004 90nm, 2005 80nm, 2006 65nm
The new reality, normal is that the same gets sold for 18 months, then they change it up a bit as the yield has gotten better
and now you can't even get that anymore?
I understand that Covid could not have been planed for and caused supply chain disturbance, but this is not disturbance but market and industry failure.
Looking at the (mm)² sold, I remember a consumer die to be 150(mm)² 20 years ago. Today a mid-range GPU is three times as big at 450(mm)². Could no one predict that it would take more of the same 300mm wafers to make the same number of three times bigger dies?
Because Nvidia is effectively a monopolist (No other product is sufficiently identical) they would set the price rather high and would not sell at maximum sourcable capacity. Even without Nvidia being pushy about production, they must be at a point where selling more would increase their profit.