By: Peter Lewis (peter.delete@this.notyahoo.com), May 30, 2022 3:45 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Jan Wassenberg (jan.wassenberg.delete@this.gmail.com) on May 23, 2022 6:11 am wrote:
> Some relevant questions:
> 3) RVV is designed for scaling down. Will RISC-V eventually capture a large share of general purpose computing?
I don’t have much of an opinion about your other questions but I will say my opinion about this one. If RISC-V has any chance in general purpose computing, the first place we will see it is in Chromebooks or web servers. Another place RISC-V could make sense today is in supercomputers, such as those being developed by the European Processor Initiative. If Intel or AMD acquires SiFive and Microsoft ports Windows to RISC-V, then it is possible that RISC-V could capture a large share of general purpose computing, but not before the 2040s. I think it is more likely that Apple and Nvidia will eventually take over a significant part of the computer market with their ARM products.
As more low-performance software is rewritten in JavaScript and Linux becomes more popular on desktops, new instruction sets will have more of a chance, but that is a multi-decade process. If binary translation from x86 to RISC-V is developed that can translate Windows and Office, that would greatly accelerate the process.
The technical merits of a processor instruction set have little effect on its market success, as the original x86 vs 68000 battle showed. The real determining factors are processor implementations, deals with strategic customers, pricing and other business-related things.
> Some relevant questions:
> 3) RVV is designed for scaling down. Will RISC-V eventually capture a large share of general purpose computing?
I don’t have much of an opinion about your other questions but I will say my opinion about this one. If RISC-V has any chance in general purpose computing, the first place we will see it is in Chromebooks or web servers. Another place RISC-V could make sense today is in supercomputers, such as those being developed by the European Processor Initiative. If Intel or AMD acquires SiFive and Microsoft ports Windows to RISC-V, then it is possible that RISC-V could capture a large share of general purpose computing, but not before the 2040s. I think it is more likely that Apple and Nvidia will eventually take over a significant part of the computer market with their ARM products.
As more low-performance software is rewritten in JavaScript and Linux becomes more popular on desktops, new instruction sets will have more of a chance, but that is a multi-decade process. If binary translation from x86 to RISC-V is developed that can translate Windows and Office, that would greatly accelerate the process.
The technical merits of a processor instruction set have little effect on its market success, as the original x86 vs 68000 battle showed. The real determining factors are processor implementations, deals with strategic customers, pricing and other business-related things.
