Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industry

By: Ray (no.delete@this.thanks.com), October 14, 2022 4:08 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
So according to the twitter thread below, the US just tossed a bomb into the Chinese chip industry.

I've seen multiple news stories about export controls etc., but this seems much worse. The thread seems to imply that the "export controls" are far more than that, making it hard for Americans to work for Chinese chip companies. Supposedly this is aimed at newer nodes and feature sizes, but I can't see how the damage could be limited to that narrow segment.

I have zero interest in identity politics and finger pointing, so please ignore which admin did what. I'm just wondering if people on RWT might have a better view behind the curtain, and I'm worried about how this will affect supply of the microcontrollers that literally keep everything running, like cars, and TVs, and routers, and power stations.

If older nodes suddenly become unavailable because, say, "ASML has stopped providing services and support to mainland China", it becomes irrelevant if the legislation was only aimed at new nodes.

Here is a cut and paste of the first few tweets, with political stuff elided:

------8<------

THREAD: The US government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry.

New rules around "US persons" are driving an "industry-wide decapitation."


The following is the translation of a thread posted earlier this week by
@lidangzzz

"Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday.

To put it simply, [a politician] has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.

Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

One round of sanctions from [a politician] did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under [another politician].

Although American semiconductor exporters had to apply for licenses during the [another politician] years, licenses were approved within a month.

With the new [a politician] sanctions, all American suppliers of IP blocks, components, and services departed overnight —— thus cutting off all service [to China].

Long story short, every advanced node semiconductor company is currently facing comprehensive supply cut-off, resignations from all American staff, and immediate operations paralysis.

This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight. Complete collapse. No chance of survival

------8<------
Link:
https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440

I'm currently designing some embedded hardware, and CPUs are already hard to find. I'm finding that I have to either spec CPUs that nobody wants (because they have only 4K of FLASH ROM, or whatever), or I have to switch to newer process nodes just to find something available (think a 240 MHz 32-bit dual core ESP32 instead of an 20 MHz AVR 8 bit CPU). There is already serious disruption from the pandemic.

Is the thread overwrought? The thread sure doesn't make the damage sound contained to some AI chips or high-density DRAM.

Anybody know anybody in the trenches?
 Next Post in Thread >
TopicPosted ByDate
Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryRay2022/10/14 04:08 PM
  This is not how US citizenship works...Mark Roulo2022/10/14 05:03 PM
    This is not how US citizenship works...Adrian2022/10/15 02:14 AM
      US personAdrian2022/10/15 02:17 AM
        US personMark Roulo2022/10/15 06:37 AM
          US personAdrian2022/10/15 08:09 AM
            US personrwessel2022/10/15 10:26 AM
  Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/14 07:09 PM
    Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryaaron spink2022/10/14 11:14 PM
      Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/15 10:09 AM
        Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industry---2022/10/15 10:39 AM
          Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/16 01:25 AM
            Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryDoug S2022/10/16 07:08 AM
            Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanon22022/10/16 02:01 PM
              Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/16 06:16 PM
                Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanon22022/10/16 07:46 PM
            Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryaaron spink2022/10/16 06:21 PM
              Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/16 08:03 PM
                Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBjörn Ragnar Björnsson2022/10/17 06:47 PM
                  Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryBrendan2022/10/17 08:44 PM
                    Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAdrian2022/10/17 11:03 PM
                      Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanonymou52022/10/17 11:10 PM
                        Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAdrian2022/10/17 11:39 PM
                          Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanon22022/10/18 12:43 AM
                            Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAdrian2022/10/18 01:07 AM
                              Typo: "not it prevents" should be "now it prevents" (NT)Adrian2022/10/18 01:08 AM
                              Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanon22022/10/18 01:25 AM
                                Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAdrian2022/10/18 01:42 AM
                                  Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanon22022/10/18 01:49 AM
                    Take your semiconductor manufacturing knowledge and move to China. Rumor has it they are waiting... (NT)anonymou52022/10/17 11:04 PM
        Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryaaron spink2022/10/16 06:14 PM
  Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAnon2022/10/14 10:47 PM
    Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAnon42022/10/15 03:15 AM
      Protectionism or Cold War II?Maxwell2022/10/15 10:30 AM
        Protectionism or Cold War II?Brett2022/10/15 01:47 PM
          Interesting link. Thanks. (NT)Ray2022/10/17 10:13 AM
        Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/15 01:51 PM
          Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon42022/10/15 02:05 PM
            Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/15 03:40 PM
              Protectionism or Cold War II?Björn Ragnar Björnsson2022/10/15 09:20 PM
                Protectionism or Cold War II?Brendan2022/10/16 01:33 AM
                  Protectionism or Cold War II?dmcq2022/10/16 02:16 AM
                  Protectionism or Cold War II?Doug S2022/10/16 07:38 AM
                    Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/16 10:17 AM
                      Protectionism or Cold War II?anonymou52022/10/16 03:59 PM
                        Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/16 04:12 PM
                    Protectionism or Cold War II?Brendan2022/10/16 12:59 PM
                      Protectionism or Cold War II?aaron spink2022/10/16 06:52 PM
                      Protectionism or Cold War II?Doug S2022/10/16 09:45 PM
                  Protectionism or Cold War II?anonymou52022/10/16 03:51 PM
                  Protectionism or Cold War II?James2022/10/16 04:35 PM
                    Protectionism or Cold War II?Chester2022/10/16 11:47 PM
                      Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/17 12:18 AM
                        Protectionism or Cold War II?Chester2022/10/17 06:35 AM
                          Protectionism or Cold War II?Anon2022/10/17 07:09 AM
                            Why advanced process nodes matterChester2022/10/17 10:30 AM
                              don't forget SAMSUNGEric Bron2022/10/18 12:36 AM
                                don't forget SAMSUNGChester2022/10/18 06:49 AM
                                  don't forget SAMSUNGFreddie2022/10/18 07:13 AM
                                    don't forget SAMSUNGRayla2022/10/18 07:40 AM
                                      don't forget SAMSUNGChester2022/10/18 07:41 AM
                                don't forget SAMSUNGDoug S2022/10/18 10:56 AM
                              Why advanced process nodes matterAnon2022/10/18 07:37 PM
                                Why advanced process nodes matterChester2022/10/19 09:46 AM
                  Protectionism or Cold War II?konrad Schwarz2022/10/21 06:06 AM
                    Protectionism or Cold War II?Doug S2022/10/21 09:25 AM
                      Protectionism or Cold War II?anonymou52022/10/22 12:21 AM
                        Protectionism or Cold War II?Doug S2022/10/22 06:25 AM
      Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryKonrad Schwarz2022/10/21 06:03 AM
        Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryanonymou52022/10/22 12:20 AM
  Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industrydmcq2022/10/15 02:59 AM
    Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryDoug S2022/10/16 07:28 AM
      Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAnon2022/10/16 10:26 AM
        Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryChester2022/10/16 11:39 PM
          Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAnon2022/10/17 12:20 AM
          Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industryAdrian2022/10/17 02:37 AM
            Playing with fire? Shutting down the Chinese semiconductor industrydmcq2022/10/17 03:28 AM
              Protectionism and stuffChester2022/10/17 06:30 AM
                Protectionism and stuffAnon2022/10/17 07:25 AM
                  Protectionism and stuffChester2022/10/17 10:12 AM
                    Protectionism and stuffBrendan2022/10/17 03:00 PM
                      Protectionism and stuffanonymou52022/10/17 04:03 PM
                        Protectionism and stuffBrendan2022/10/17 05:31 PM
                          Protectionism and stuffBjörn Ragnar Björnsson2022/10/17 06:25 PM
                          Protectionism and stuffanonymou52022/10/17 11:16 PM
                            Do you really have to insult people? (NT)none2022/10/17 11:36 PM
                              Protectionism and stuffanonymou52022/10/18 10:17 AM
                      Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/17 06:21 PM
                        Protectionism and stuffBrendan2022/10/17 07:43 PM
                          Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/17 08:04 PM
                            Protectionism and stuffBrendan2022/10/17 09:14 PM
                              Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/18 12:30 AM
                                Protectionism and stuffAdrian2022/10/18 01:22 AM
                                  Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/18 01:42 AM
                                    Protectionism and stuffAdrian2022/10/18 02:05 AM
                                      Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/18 02:45 AM
                                    Protectionism and stuffJS2022/10/18 02:51 AM
                                      Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/18 03:22 AM
                                        Protectionism and stuffAdrian2022/10/18 06:17 AM
                                        Protectionism and stuffnone2022/10/18 08:24 AM
                                    Protectionism and stuffBrett2022/10/18 02:46 PM
                                Protectionism and stuffBrendan2022/10/18 01:27 AM
                                  Protectionism and stuffanon22022/10/18 01:46 AM
                              Protectionism and stuffSimon Farnsworth2022/10/18 03:46 AM
                                Life, the Universe, and stuffhobold2022/10/18 12:28 PM
                                  Life, the Universe, and stuffanon22022/10/18 10:13 PM
                                    Life, the Universe, and stuffhobold2022/10/19 05:58 AM
                                      Life, the Universe, and stuffanon22022/10/19 05:03 PM
                                        Back on trackChester2022/10/19 05:50 PM
                                          Back on trackAdrian2022/10/20 12:34 AM
                                            Back on trackanonymou52022/10/20 01:35 AM
                                            Back on trackChester2022/10/20 11:16 AM
                                        Life, the Universe, and stuffhobold2022/10/20 12:26 AM
                                          Life, the Universe, and stuffanon22022/10/20 03:56 AM
                                            Life, the Universe, and stuffAdrian2022/10/20 05:03 AM
                                            Life, the Universe, and stuffhobold2022/10/20 05:03 AM
                            Protectionism and stuffAnon2022/10/18 08:08 PM
                    Protectionism and stuffdmcq2022/10/18 09:07 AM
                    Protectionism and stuffAnon2022/10/18 07:31 PM
                      Protectionism and stuffChester2022/10/19 09:25 AM
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