JasonB (no@spam.com) on 5/14/07 wrote:
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>
>Yes, but if you think the average user is only going to move to it when they need
>it, then I think the fact that my new notebook came with 64 bit Vista without
>even being advertised as doing so suggests that a lot of people will quite quickly
>have a 64 bit OS without even knowing it, let alone needing it.
>
>Very few people actually need the computing power that they currently have,
>but that doesn't stop them from getting it, and I don't see why 64 bits will be any different.

What you are describing is *not* an average user, IMO. I don't know a lot of people who upgrade their systems every couple of years. People who tend to upgrade tend to do it frequently, whether they need it or not. Those who don't tend to wait until they *need* it.

As you said - few people actually need the power they have now, so the only reason to upgrade is just to do it, and I think far fewer people do that than you seem to think. IOW, I am willing to bet that over the past 4 years a significant percentage of retail sales have been to someone who already purchased at least once during the same 4 year period. And many will have handed down their older system to someone else, who won't upgrade for quite some time.

Regards,
Dean