Will x86 dominate big iron?

By: Tom W (twerges.delete@this.hotmail.com), August 24, 2008 1:06 am
Room: Moderated Discussions
Jesper Frimann (jesperfrimann@gmail.com) on 8/22/08 wrote:
---------------------------
>Yes I know that feeling, but when you drill down into those people what U'll find is that
>much of that 'resistance to change', read one of my wife's books on psychology to learn that
>phrase, is just that. Resistance to change.

Exactly--resistance to change.

At present, there are _many_ smaller shops which use commodity x86/linux exclusively. When the time comes for those places to buy their first "big box", I suspect many of them will choose a larger x86/linux machine, if that's an option, rather than buying proprietary hardware. By doing so, they would not only retain something they're familiar with, but would also not need to hire other administrators etc.

I suspect that x86 will initially encroach into big iron in those shops which used commodity x86 previously and are buying a "big box" for the first time.

As a result, the proprietary architectures may lose the market of "initial big box buyers" to x86, when it can scale up sufficiently. So x86 could capture a significant part of the "big box" market owing to new installations, even if none of the established players migrated from proprietary hardware.

>I'd rather change from running Oracle on HPUX to Solaris than I'd change from running DB2 on HPUX to
>running Oracle on HPUX, just to mention a fictive example.

That I'll certainly grant. Everyplace I've worked, migrating from Solaris to linux would have been fairly trivial, but migrating off Oracle would have been utterly impossible. It frightens me to even think about that. In some places, a non-trivial fraction of their application was written as Oracle stored procedures.

I was told by someone who worked for Oracle that they used to maintain "bug compatibility" between versions of Oracle for different architectures. In other words, if there was a bug in the reference version of Oracle (the solaris version) then they would purposefully introduce exactly the same bug and exactly the same erroneous behavior into the versions for the other architectures, so as to assure that Oracle worked identically on all platforms.

>Well the highend server game is a totally different game. And if x86 wants to enter
>this space it needs to gain many of the same features as the processors that play in
>that space has. Furthermore the whole solution stack also have to be able to support
>'highend server features' and not to forget the people running the servers.

That I'll grant. But, doesn't it seem possible that some players will build high-end x86 boxes with those features?

When I started off as a programmer, Sun boxes were workstations for hackers. Sun had no enterprise strategy. IIRC, Sun started dominating the enterprise with the E10000 which was a design they purchased from someone else.

Within a few years, Sun boxes were what everyone had to have when they bought big iron.

If sparc could make that transition, then why not x86.

>Well the x86 game is Intel and then some smallish vendors that are struggling (sorry AMD).
>And much of the innovation that you see on the box side of x86 servers are things that have
>been copied from RISK/Itanium/Mainframe. The main innovation of the x86 server is the price, and
>that have strictly speaking also been done before.

That's true. On the bright side, the previous tech monopolies (like IBM) lavished money on R&D. They were very innovative. In fact, IIRC, many of the innovations copied in x86 servers originally came from the IBM 360, including virtual memory, timesharing, and many other things. Perhaps, if Intel gains a comparable monopoly then they'll spend alot on research like IBM did.

>And with Intel trying hard to grab more and more of the infrastructure inside servers...
>IMHO we are heading back to a world I personally don't care much for. And if that happens
>I will either go back to software development or perhaps start that microbrewery that I've
>been dreaming about.

Making processors is so capital-intensive and so R&D-heavy, that it may be a natural monopoly. It would be difficult to envision a competitor emerging against Intel.

The unfortunate thing about AMD is that they're not really doing anything wrong. They're just not big enough. AMD could only survive when Intel management was making silly mistakes, and AMD could exploit those mistakes. Since Intel management isn't making silly mistakes right now (quite the opposite), AMD is having a tough time of it.
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        First Dunnington benchmark resultsrwessel2008/08/21 09:49 AM
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                          SLC vs. MLCDoug Siebert2008/08/22 02:27 PM
                            SLC vs. MLCEduardoS2008/08/22 06:26 PM
                            SSD Controller differentiationDavid Kanter2008/08/22 09:35 PM
                              SSD Controller differentiationDoug Siebert2008/08/22 10:34 PM
                                SSD Controller differentiation (supercaps, cost...)anon2008/08/23 10:18 AM
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                            SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2008/08/23 10:50 AM
                              SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2008/09/08 12:03 PM
                                SLC vs. MLCMax2008/09/08 01:51 PM
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                                                Disk cache snapshottingMax2008/09/15 12:50 PM
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                                          SLC vs. MLCHoward Chu2008/09/09 09:42 AM
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                                                        SLC vs. MLCMax2008/09/10 06:28 AM
                                                    SLC vs. MLCMatt Sayler2008/09/10 06:21 AM
                                                      SLC vs. MLCMichael S2008/09/10 09:17 AM
                                                    SLC vs. MLCanon2008/09/10 06:29 AM
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                                                        SLC vs. MLCMatt Sayler2008/09/10 10:45 AM
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                                                      SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyAnonymous2008/09/11 05:25 PM
                                                        SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyDoug Siebert2008/09/11 05:47 PM
                                                          SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyrwessel2008/09/11 06:01 PM
                                                        SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyanon2008/09/12 12:00 AM
                                                          SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyAnonymous2008/09/12 08:52 PM
                                                            SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyanon2008/09/13 10:06 AM
                                                            SLC vs. MLC - the trick to latencyUngo2008/09/15 12:18 PM
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                                                                To SSD or not? One lady's perspectiveHoward Chu2008/09/22 04:02 AM
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                                                                        4K sectorsDaniel2008/09/22 10:31 PM
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                                                                        Reasons for >512 byte sectorsrwessel2008/09/22 10:09 PM
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                                                                        Reasons for >512 byte sectorsDaniel2008/09/22 10:40 PM
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                                                                            Reasons for >512 byte sectorsDaniel2008/09/23 12:10 PM
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                                                                        HDD long sector size availabilityrwessel2008/09/23 09:19 AM
                                                                          HDD long sector size availabilityEtienne Lehnart2008/09/23 02:17 PM
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                                                          overlapped erase and read David W. Hess2008/09/12 09:56 AM
                                                          overlapped erase and read Anonymous2008/09/12 08:45 PM
                                                            overlapped erase and read Jouni Osmala2008/09/12 11:56 PM
                                                            overlapped erase and read Michael S2008/09/13 11:29 AM
                                                            overlapped erase and read Michael S2008/09/13 12:09 PM
                                                              overlapped erase and read Linus Torvalds2008/09/13 02:05 PM
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                                          SSD and RAIDAaron Spink2008/09/09 04:27 PM
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                                SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2009/01/06 02:04 PM
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                                      SLC vs. MLCanonymous2009/01/06 05:17 PM
                                        SLC vs. MLCrwessel2009/01/06 05:58 PM
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                                    SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2009/01/06 05:45 PM
                                      SLC vs. MLCrwessel2009/01/06 06:09 PM
                                        SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2009/01/06 07:47 PM
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                                    SLC vs. MLCanon2009/01/06 08:23 PM
                                      SLC vs. MLCJoern Engel2009/01/07 12:52 AM
                                        SLC vs. MLCanon2009/01/07 02:34 AM
                                  SLC vs. MLCIntelUser20002009/01/07 07:43 AM
                                    SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2009/01/07 10:28 AM
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                                                    The File AbstractionHoward Chu2009/01/25 01:49 PM
                                                      The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/26 09:23 AM
                                                        The File AbstractionMichael S2009/01/26 01:39 PM
                                                          The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/26 02:31 PM
                                                            The File AbstractionDean Kent2009/01/26 03:06 PM
                                                              The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/26 04:29 PM
                                                                The File AbstractionMark Christiansen2009/01/27 09:24 AM
                                                                  The File AbstractionMark Christiansen2009/01/27 10:14 AM
                                                                  The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/27 10:15 AM
                                                                    The File Abstractionslacker2009/01/27 11:20 AM
                                                                      The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/27 01:16 PM
                                                                        Attributes All The Way DownMark Christiansen2009/01/27 02:17 PM
                                                                        The File Abstractionslacker2009/01/27 05:25 PM
                                                                          The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/28 08:17 AM
                                                                            The File Abstraction: API thoughtsCarlie Coats2009/01/28 09:35 AM
                                                                            The File Abstractionslacker2009/01/28 10:09 AM
                                                                              The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/28 01:44 PM
                                                                                Programs already 'hide' their metadata in the bytestream, unbeknownst to usersanon2009/01/28 09:28 PM
                                                                                The File Abstractionslacker2009/01/29 10:39 AM
                                                                                  The File AbstractionLinus Torvalds2009/01/29 11:08 AM
                                                                                    The File AbstractionDean Kent2009/01/29 11:49 AM
                                                                                      The File AbstractionHoward Chu2009/01/29 02:58 PM
                                                                                        The File Abstractionrwessel2009/01/29 04:23 PM
                                                                                    Extended Attributes in Actionslacker2009/01/29 03:05 PM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in Actionstubar2009/01/29 04:49 PM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in ActionLinus Torvalds2009/01/29 05:15 PM
                                                                                        Like Duhanon2009/01/29 07:42 PM
                                                                                          Like Duhanon2009/01/29 09:15 PM
                                                                                            Like Duhanon2009/02/01 07:18 PM
                                                                                              Double Duh.Anonymous2009/02/01 10:58 PM
                                                                                                Double Duh.anon2009/02/02 02:08 AM
                                                                                                  Double Duh.Anonymous2009/02/02 05:11 PM
                                                                                                    Double Duh.anon2009/02/02 07:33 PM
                                                                                              Like DuhDavid Kanter2009/02/01 11:05 PM
                                                                                                Like Duhpeter2009/02/01 11:55 PM
                                                                                                Like Duhanon2009/02/02 01:55 AM
                                                                                                Xattrs, Solar power, regulation and politicsRob Thorpe2009/02/02 04:36 AM
                                                                                                  Terminology seems too fuzzy to mehobold2009/02/02 06:14 AM
                                                                                                    Terminology seems too fuzzy to merwessel2009/02/02 12:33 PM
                                                                                                      good summaryMichael S2009/02/03 02:41 AM
                                                                                                        good summaryMark Christiansen2009/02/03 09:57 AM
                                                                                                          good summaryHoward Chu2009/02/03 10:21 AM
                                                                                                            good summaryMark Christiansen2009/02/03 11:18 AM
                                                                                                              good summaryHoward Chu2009/02/03 12:00 PM
                                                                                                                good summaryMark Christiansen2009/02/03 12:36 PM
                                                                                                          good summaryRagingDragon2009/02/03 10:39 PM
                                                                                                            good summaryrwessel2009/02/03 11:03 PM
                                                                                                              good summaryRagingDragon2009/02/03 11:46 PM
                                                                                                      Terminology seems too fuzzy to meslacker2009/02/04 05:06 PM
                                                                                                        Terminology seems too fuzzy to meMichael S2009/02/05 01:05 AM
                                                                                                          Terminology seems too fuzzy to meUngo2009/02/05 01:15 PM
                                                                                                          Terminology seems too fuzzy to meslacker2009/02/05 02:19 PM
                                                                                                            Terminology seems too fuzzy to meHoward Chu2009/02/05 04:44 PM
                                                                                          Like Duhiz2009/01/30 02:03 AM
                                                                                          EAs (security labels) hosed me badlyanon2009/01/30 09:48 PM
                                                                                        Extended Attributes in ActionRagingDragon2009/01/29 09:31 PM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in Actionanonymous2009/01/29 08:13 PM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in ActionHoward Chu2009/01/29 09:38 PM
                                                                                        Extended Attributes in Actionslacker2009/01/30 11:24 AM
                                                                                          Extended Attributes in Actionanon2009/01/30 05:50 PM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in ActionEtienne Lehnart2009/01/30 12:22 AM
                                                                                      Extended Attributes in ActionRob Thorpe2009/01/30 12:39 PM
                                                                                        Extended Attributes in Actionslacker2009/01/30 01:16 PM
                                                                                          Extended Attributes in Actionanon2009/01/30 06:03 PM
                                                                                          Extended Attributes in ActionHoward Chu2009/01/30 11:22 PM
                                                                                            Extended Attributes in Actionrwessel2009/01/31 12:08 AM
                                                                                              Extended Attributes in Actionanonymous2009/01/31 12:22 AM
                                                                                                Extended Attributes in Actionrwessel2009/01/31 12:56 AM
                                                                                                  ScalingDean Kent2009/01/31 09:04 AM
                                                                                                    ScalingRob Thorpe2009/02/02 02:39 AM
                                                                                                      Scalingrwessel2009/02/02 11:41 AM
                                                                                                        ScalingHoward Chu2009/02/02 12:30 PM
                                                                                                          ScalingDean Kent2009/02/02 02:27 PM
                                                                                                            ScalingRob Thorpe2009/02/03 05:08 AM
                                                                                                              ScalingDean Kent2009/02/03 07:38 AM
                                                                                                              Scalingrwessel2009/02/03 02:34 PM
                                                                                                                ScalingRagingDragon2009/02/03 10:46 PM
                                                                                                    in defense of software that does not scaleMatt Sayler2009/02/03 11:27 AM
                                                                                                      in defense of software that does not scaleHoward Chu2009/02/03 12:03 PM
                                                                                                        in defense of software that does not scaleMatt Sayler2009/02/03 12:17 PM
                                                                                                        in defense of software that does not scaleRagingDragon2009/02/03 11:00 PM
                                                                                                          in defense of software that does not scaleMichael S2009/02/04 06:46 AM
                                                                                                            in defense of software that does not scaleRagingDragon2009/02/04 09:33 PM
                                                                                                      in defense of software that does not scaleDean Kent2009/02/03 12:17 PM
                                                                                                        in defense of software that does not scaleMatt Sayler2009/02/03 12:24 PM
                                                                                                        in defense of software that does not scaleVincent Diepeveen2009/02/04 10:43 AM
                                                                                                      in defense of software that does not scalerwessel2009/02/03 02:44 PM
                                                                                                        in defense of software that does not scaleanon2009/02/04 02:35 AM
                                                                                                          in defense of software that does not scaleCarlie Coats2009/02/04 05:24 AM
                                                                                                      Scaling with time vs. scaling from the beginning.mpx2009/02/05 01:57 AM
                                                                                                  Extended Attributes in ActionMichael S2009/01/31 10:33 AM
                                                                                                  Extended Attributes in Actionanon2009/01/31 10:37 PM
                                                                                          Extended Attributes in ActionJasonB2009/01/31 08:11 AM
                                                                                            Extended Attributes in ActionHoward Chu2009/01/31 11:43 AM
                                                                                              Extended Attributes in ActionJasonB2009/01/31 04:37 PM
                                                                                                Extended Attributes in ActionHoward Chu2009/02/02 02:42 PM
                                                                                                  Extended Attributes in ActionHoward Chu2009/02/02 02:44 PM
                                                                    The File AbstractionRob Thorpe2009/01/27 11:20 AM
                                                              The File AbstractionHoward Chu2009/01/27 12:28 AM
                                                                The File AbstractionMichael S2009/01/27 03:00 AM
                                                                The File AbstractionDean Kent2009/01/27 08:30 AM
                                                        The File AbstractionAndi Kleen2009/01/27 02:05 AM
                                  SLC vs. MLCMichel2009/01/12 06:54 PM
                                    SLC vs. MLCLinus Torvalds2009/01/12 07:38 PM
                                      SLC vs. MLCrwessel2009/01/13 12:52 AM
                                      SLC vs. MLCUngo2009/01/13 03:04 PM
                                        SLC vs. MLCWes Felter2009/01/13 05:42 PM
                                      SLC vs. MLCTruePath2009/01/25 05:05 AM
                    SLC vs. MLCUngo2008/08/21 12:54 PM
                    SLC vs. MLCAaron Spink2008/08/21 01:20 PM
                  MLC vs. SLCMichael S2008/08/21 08:57 AM
                First Dunnington benchmark resultsrwessel2008/08/21 10:40 AM
              First Dunnington benchmark resultsAaron Spink2008/08/21 03:18 AM
      First Dunnington benchmark resultsEtienne Lehnart2008/08/20 04:38 AM
  Will x86 dominate big iron?Tom W2008/08/19 10:10 PM
    Will x86 dominate big iron?Jesper Frimann2008/08/20 12:28 AM
      Will x86 dominate big iron?Tom W2008/08/20 03:42 PM
        Will x86 dominate big iron?David Kanter2008/08/21 01:13 AM
          Will x86 dominate big iron?Joe Chang2008/08/21 06:54 AM
            Will x86 dominate big iron?asdf2008/08/22 01:18 PM
              Will x86 dominate big iron?Dean Kent2008/08/22 07:54 PM
        Will x86 dominate big iron?Jesper Frimann2008/08/22 09:48 AM
          Will x86 dominate big iron?Tom W2008/08/24 01:06 AM
            Will x86 dominate big iron?Michael S2008/08/24 04:19 AM
              Will x86 dominate big iron?Dean Kent2008/08/24 09:30 AM
                Will x86 dominate big iron?Paul2008/08/24 11:16 AM
                  Will x86 dominate big iron?Dean Kent2008/08/24 12:37 PM
                Will x86 dominate big iron?Michael S2008/08/25 12:53 AM
        Will x86 dominate big iron?someone2008/08/22 10:19 AM
          Will x86 dominate big iron?aaron spink2008/08/23 02:56 AM
            Will x86 dominate big iron?Michael S2008/08/23 09:58 AM
              Will x86 dominate big iron?someone2008/08/23 01:51 PM
            Will x86 dominate big iron?someone2008/08/23 01:55 PM
              Will x86 dominate big iron?Aaron Spink2008/08/23 04:52 PM
                Will x86 dominate big iron?anonymous2008/08/23 05:28 PM
                  Will x86 dominate big iron?Dean Kent2008/08/23 06:12 PM
                    Off road and topicEduardoS2008/08/23 06:28 PM
                  Will x86 dominate big iron?someone2008/08/23 06:26 PM
                    Will x86 dominate big iron?Dean Kent2008/08/23 09:40 PM
                    Will x86 dominate big iron?anonymous2008/08/24 01:46 AM
                  Off road and topicDavid W. Hess2008/08/24 03:24 AM
                    Off road and topicAaron Spink2008/08/24 04:14 AM
  Beckton vs. DunningtonMr. Camel2008/08/22 06:30 AM
    Beckton vs. Dunningtonjokerman2008/08/22 12:12 PM
    Beckton vs. DunningtonMr. Camel2009/05/29 10:16 AM
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How do you spell green?