someone (someone@somewhere.com) on 2/25/09 wrote:
>
>IDC says x86 server revenue fell faster than the entire
>server market in Q4. Commodity server sales fell faster
>than mid range and much faster than high end.

Umm. Hello? There's the obvious explanation for that
one, but I guess you don't want to hear it.

But in case you do, I'll just mention it: large systems tend
to have much longer procurement procedures. Just
about every place I can think of lets managers make
discretionary buying decisions for things under about $5k,
so things like a few new workstations can easily get bought
on the spot. There's no need to do any strategic analysis.

In contrast, buying a new big DB server might take a year or
two of just planning. That whole "how do I upgrade from
Alpha/VMS to Itanium/VMS" thread? Remember that one?

Wouldn't you agree? Isn't this obvious?

Now, with those facts in mind, spend the five seconds to
think about what happens when an economy tanks and people
start to tighten their belts. Think about how long it takes
for the effects to ripple down.

Hint: it has absolutely nothing to do with x86 vs IPF, or
anything technical at all.

Here's another hint: this is also not a "good thing" for
the big-iron vendors. Yes, the effects of a downturn take
a bit longer to be felt. But you might also think about
what happens when the spigots slowly start opening again.

But hey, you can continue to live in your dream world
where apparently that whole "economic slowdown" didn't
happen, and where IPF shrinking by just 5% is a great
thing, because is shrank less than the low-end machines.

Feel free to think that it's about IPF taking over the
world, and how last quarter people finally started to see
the light about how great IPF is.

The rest of us? I think we'll stick to the rather more
obvious explanation.

Linus