Why the platform focus?

Article: Tukwila Update
By: anon (anon.delete@this.anon.com), February 24, 2009 10:46 pm
Room: Moderated Discussions
Doug Siebert (foo@bar.bar) on 2/24/09 wrote:
---------------------------
>anon (anon@anon.com) on 2/24/09 wrote:
>---------------------------
>>>If software compatibility was not important new ISAs would be introduced and dumped
>>>frequently. But it is, and it means there's less sense for Itanium to exist than some people imagine.
>>
>>And yet it continues to grow, despite years and years of disadvantages versus x86
>>(and against continual predictions of naysayers -- how can you continue claiming
>>you are right when you predicted it would die several years ago?).
>
>
>But see, the thing is, Itanium is not truly growing and never has been. PA-RISC
>and Alpha stepped aside to make room for it, and IPF has been slowly filling the
>vacuum they are leaving behind.

If you redefine "growth" so that it fits your argument, I can't see much hope for a good debate! But I'll try anyway :)

> Once the migration is done (and amazingly its not
>quite finished just yet, given the fairly impressive for Q1-Q3 2008 sales of PA-RISC
>powered Superdomes) that's pretty much it for growth, its all downhill from there.

Downhill as in shrinking market share? Maybe. I don't know I'm not trying to predict the future. But unlike naysayers have been forecasting for years, IPF right now has been growing, now has a very significant market share, and appears to have a pretty good medium-term commitment from Intel.

And I don't think it is at all guaranteed that market share will be relegated to PA-RISC replacement. What about SPARC? How long will POWER compete in the high end? Sure many of them will want to try migrating to x86, but as long as Intel segregates IPF into the high end, some will look there.

>It is nothing more than the next generation of PA-RISC, just as it was originally
>designed by HP to be. Just like PA-RISC migrated all the HP-UX customers off a
>different architecture while it absorbed the Apollo customers, Itanium likewise
>migrated all the HP-UX customers off a different architecture while it absorbed
>the Alpha customers. Itanium will never end up being any more dominant than PA-RISC
>was, because its life cycle is identical.

I'm not very knowledgeable about the market, but aren't a significant amount of IPF sales windows and linux based?

>I always predicted Itanium would plateau when PA-RISC was discontinued, then begin
>a long slow decline and it would suffer the same fate as Alpha (I'd say between
>2013-2015) Its all a matter of perspective, as we both see the same facts but draw
>different conclusions from them that so far lead both of us to believe our scenarios
>are unfolding exactly as we have foreseen :)

No I'm not trying to look into a crystal ball (I'm not a fanatical IPF proponent OR opponent). I'm just saying that the naysayers' crystal balls of ~5 years ago have turned out to be sadly mistaken.

I would never try to make a claim like "IPF will take over the high end indefinitely". But the fact is that it seems to be seen as profitable and worthwhile by Intel, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with going after a very significant market, even if it is slowly shrinking. Especially if the *eventual* outcome appears like your lower end products will grow up and take over completely, that does not automatically make the effort in the high end market a waste.

If you want a wild guess from me, I think it will depend on how well Intel executes the next couple of generations of IPF; where (if anywhere) AMD moves x86 to; how well POWER goes etc.

In the worst (for IPF) case, maybe they won't get another design out, and just respin things (maybe adding cores) and let it slowly die out at the hands of x86, along with the other high end RISCs. In the best case, it could eventually carve out a bigger chunk of high end market. It could even push on x86 in some areas too (eg. HPC. even mid-servers if the CPUs end up being *really* good).

I don't know. But the thing is, the "just wait for the next one" guys are not worse than the "there will not be a next one" guys, as far as I can tell.
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TopicPosted ByDate
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      POWER6 interconnectconfused2009/02/05 10:50 AM
        POWER6 interconnectfoobar2009/02/05 02:12 PM
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  Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/05 08:40 AM
    Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/05 08:50 AM
      Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/05 09:29 AM
        Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/05 10:34 PM
          Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/05 11:09 PM
          Why the platform focus?Phil2009/02/06 01:10 AM
            Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/06 01:50 AM
              Why the platform focus?Phil2009/02/06 07:09 AM
                Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/06 10:08 AM
                Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/06 10:21 AM
                  Why the platform focus?mpx2009/02/06 02:04 PM
                    Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/06 02:16 PM
                Why the platform focus?RagingDragon2009/02/07 04:16 PM
                Why the platform focus?mas2009/02/25 08:28 AM
              itanium bigger than entire car industryVincent Diepeveen2009/02/06 07:12 AM
                itanium bigger than entire car industryDevon Welles2009/02/06 07:51 AM
                  itanium bigger than entire car industryVincent Diepeveen2009/02/06 10:41 AM
                  itanium bigger than entire car industryDean Kent2009/02/06 07:56 PM
                    Unit sales is meaningless when ASP grows fastersomeone2009/02/07 09:38 AM
                      Unit sales is meaningless when ASP grows fasterDean Kent2009/02/07 03:10 PM
                        Unit sales is meaningless when ASP grows fasterRagingDragon2009/02/07 04:34 PM
                    itanium bigger than entire car industryVincent Diepeveen2009/02/08 05:35 AM
                itanium bigger than entire car industryRagingDragon2009/02/07 04:40 PM
            Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/06 07:47 AM
      Yes it doesm performance mattersbob2009/02/05 10:51 AM
        Yes it doesm performance mattersVenki2009/02/05 11:06 AM
      Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/06 01:07 AM
        Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/06 02:00 AM
    Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/05 10:49 AM
      Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/05 12:03 PM
        Why the platform focus?Default2009/02/05 01:29 PM
          Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/05 02:08 PM
        Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/05 02:24 PM
          Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/05 03:30 PM
    Why the platform focus?Paradox2009/02/05 11:22 AM
    Why the platform focus?slacker2009/02/05 01:41 PM
      Why the platform focus?RagingDragon2009/02/05 10:57 PM
      Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/06 06:11 AM
        Why the platform focus?slacker2009/02/06 01:58 PM
          Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/08 02:24 AM
            Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/08 09:38 AM
              Why the platform focus?David Kanter2009/02/08 04:27 PM
                Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/08 07:26 PM
                  Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/09 12:35 AM
          Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/08 09:53 AM
    All x86 SpecInt scores are useless due to autopar (NT)Michael S2009/02/05 03:15 PM
      Auto parallelizationDavid Kanter2009/02/05 06:17 PM
      All x86 SpecInt scores are useless due to autopar (NT)Paradox2009/02/06 08:47 AM
    Why the platform focus?David Kanter2009/02/05 04:49 PM
    Why the platform focus?David Kanter2009/02/06 01:09 AM
      Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/06 08:14 AM
        Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/06 10:37 AM
          Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/06 12:49 PM
            Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/06 01:09 PM
            Intel puts its money where its mouth issomeone2009/02/06 02:08 PM
              Intel puts its money where its mouth isRagingDragon2009/02/07 06:01 PM
                Intel puts its money where its mouth issomeone2009/02/08 02:24 PM
                  mission-criticalMichael S2009/02/08 05:06 PM
                    mission-criticalmpx2009/02/09 02:30 AM
                      mission-criticalrwessel2009/02/09 03:23 PM
                    mission-criticalanon2009/02/09 03:55 AM
                    mission-criticalEduardoS2009/02/09 05:17 PM
                      mission-criticalDean Kent2009/02/09 08:11 PM
                        mission-criticalMichael S2009/02/10 05:20 AM
                          mission-criticalDean Kent2009/02/10 07:26 AM
                            mission-criticalMichael S2009/02/10 08:01 AM
                              mission-criticalDean Kent2009/02/10 01:36 PM
                            mission-criticalsomeone2009/02/10 09:05 AM
                              mission-criticalDean Kent2009/02/10 01:22 PM
                                mission-criticalZt2009/02/22 04:54 PM
                          mission-criticalanon2009/02/10 10:41 PM
                        mission-criticalEduardoS2009/02/10 01:46 PM
                          mission-criticalDean Kent2009/02/10 02:31 PM
                        mission-criticalslacker2009/02/10 07:30 PM
                    mission-criticalVincent Diepeveen2009/02/18 07:20 AM
                  Mission criticalmpx2009/02/09 01:00 AM
            Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/07 01:15 AM
              Sun and x86 server differentiationDavid Kanter2009/02/07 01:34 AM
                Sun and x86 server differentiationmax2009/02/07 03:30 AM
                Sun and x86 server differentiationsomeone2009/02/07 10:19 AM
                  Sun and x86 server differentiationLinus Torvalds2009/02/07 10:44 AM
                Sun and x86 server differentiationRagingDragon2009/02/07 06:09 PM
                  Sun and x86 server differentiationMichael S2009/02/08 05:05 AM
                    Sun and x86 server differentiationRagingDragon2009/02/10 12:03 AM
                    Sun and x86 server differentiationJesper Frimann2009/02/10 12:51 AM
                      Sun and x86 server differentiationAlex Jones2009/02/10 01:43 PM
            Why the platform focus?bob2009/02/08 04:51 AM
              Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/08 09:23 AM
          missing the big pictureAM2009/02/18 06:43 AM
            missing the big pictureMichael S2009/02/18 08:42 AM
              missing the big pictureAM2009/02/18 09:03 AM
        Why the platform focus?mpx2009/02/06 12:47 PM
          Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.mpx2009/02/06 04:48 PM
            Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.Paul2009/02/07 02:56 PM
              z series?Michael S2009/02/07 03:12 PM
              Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.someone else2009/02/24 04:37 AM
                Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.EduardoS2009/02/24 06:55 AM
                  Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.someone else2009/02/25 01:55 AM
                    Itanium - slowest and most obsolete server CPU family in the world, NOW.Michael S2009/02/25 02:27 AM
          Why the platform focus?RagingDragon2009/02/07 06:18 PM
            Why the platform focus?Paul2009/02/08 01:10 PM
              Why the platform focus?Jukka Larja2009/02/08 11:04 PM
        Why the platform focus?slacker2009/02/06 02:10 PM
          Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/06 02:40 PM
            Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/06 02:51 PM
            Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/06 02:58 PM
              Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/07 09:26 AM
                Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/07 10:10 AM
                  Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/07 10:40 AM
                    Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/07 12:24 PM
                      Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/08 12:32 AM
                        Why the platform focus?max2009/02/08 04:57 AM
                          Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/08 05:20 AM
                        Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/08 09:15 AM
                          Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/08 11:36 PM
                      Why the platform focus?hobold2009/02/09 05:49 AM
                Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/24 01:57 AM
                  Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/24 09:45 AM
                    Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/24 12:30 PM
                      Why the platform focus?slacker2009/02/24 01:51 PM
                        Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/25 12:04 AM
                          Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/25 02:34 AM
                          Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/25 10:17 AM
                      Why the platform focus?max2009/02/25 11:15 AM
                    Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/24 05:43 PM
                      Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/24 08:26 PM
                        Why the platform focus?Howard Chu2009/02/25 03:07 AM
                          Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 06:48 AM
                        Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 06:41 AM
                          Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/25 09:17 AM
                            Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 09:55 AM
                              has anyone seen Tukwila silicon?anon2009/02/25 10:38 AM
                              Why the platform focus?Linus Torvalds2009/02/25 11:05 AM
                                Why the platform focus?slacker2009/02/25 01:11 PM
                                Why the platform focus?a reader2009/02/26 09:11 PM
                                  Why the platform focus?rcf2009/02/27 01:32 PM
                                    Why the platform focus?max2009/02/27 02:11 PM
                                      Why the platform focus?rcf2009/02/27 03:50 PM
                            Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/25 04:30 PM
                            $40M sale to $16M companybob2009/02/25 08:25 PM
                              $40M sale to $16M companyRichard Cownie2009/02/26 12:21 PM
                  Why the platform focus?anonymous2009/02/24 11:52 AM
                    Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/24 12:20 PM
                      Why the platform focus?anonymous2009/02/24 03:31 PM
                        Why the platform focus?savantu2009/02/25 12:05 AM
                        Why the platform focus?someone else2009/02/25 01:04 AM
                          Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/25 01:42 AM
                            Put me down for $500 that Poulson doesn't arrive earlier than Q4/2011 (NT)slacker2009/02/25 12:39 PM
                        Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 06:54 AM
                          Why the platform focus?anonymous2009/02/25 09:46 AM
                            Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 10:22 AM
                            Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/25 11:01 AM
                              Why the platform focus?anonymous2009/02/25 11:54 AM
                  Why the platform focus?mpx2009/02/24 02:11 PM
                    Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/24 08:57 PM
                      Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/24 10:04 PM
                        Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/24 10:46 PM
                          Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/25 05:13 PM
                            Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/25 08:53 PM
                              Why the platform focus?bob2009/02/25 09:00 PM
                                Please try to keep up (NT)anon2009/02/25 09:49 PM
                              Why the platform focus?Doug Siebert2009/02/26 12:09 AM
                                Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/26 01:12 AM
                                Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/26 02:16 AM
                                  Why the platform focus?James2009/02/26 06:09 AM
                                    sufficiently intimate with the OSMichael S2009/02/26 06:29 AM
                                      sufficiently intimate with the OSanon2009/02/27 01:01 AM
                                      sufficiently intimate with the OSHoward Chu2009/02/27 01:37 AM
                      Why the platform focus?Michael S2009/02/25 02:02 AM
                        Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/25 03:07 AM
              Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/07 01:18 PM
                Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/08 10:16 AM
                Why the platform focus?anon2009/02/25 07:40 AM
                  Intels financial statusVincent Diepeveen2009/02/25 12:02 PM
                Why the platform focus?someone2009/02/25 07:54 AM
      Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/06 08:20 AM
        Why the platform focus?Default2009/02/06 09:57 AM
          Why the platform focus?Vincent Diepeveen2009/02/06 10:59 AM
          Why the platform focus?RagingDragon2009/02/07 06:43 PM
  Tukwila Update - article onlineVincent Diepeveen2009/02/05 09:11 AM
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